آینده‌پژوهی تعاملات دیپلماتیک ایران و عراق؛ تبیین پیشران‌های کلیدی موثر بر روابط آن‌ها (2025-2035)

هدف اصلی پژوهش حاضر شناخت و تبیین پیشران‌های کلیدی موثر بر روابط دو کشور قدیمی منطقه غرب آسیا و به‌عنوان بازیگران بانفوذ و وارثان کشورهای قدرتمند تاریخی منطقه است. پرسمان اساسی پژوهش چنین صورت‌بندی می‌شود که مهم‌ترین پیشران‌های تاثیرگذار بر روابط ایران و عراق در بازه زمانی 2025 تا 2035 کدامند؟ جهت پاسخ به سوال پژوهش، با رویکردی آینده‌پژوهانه از روش تحلیل اثرات متقاطع استفاده شده است که تاثیر متقابل شبکه متغیرها را بررسی نموده و جایگاه هر متغیر را بر اساس ارتباط با شبکه متغیرها مشخص می‌سازد. ابزار پژوهش، پرسشنامه است و نظرات کارشناسان حوزه عراق داده‌های پژوهش است. یافته های پژوهش بر اساس خروجی نرم‌افزار میک‌مک از پیشران‌های موثر بر روابط ایران و عراق حاکی از آن است که از میان پانزده متغیر انتخابی، سه متغیر در گروه متغیرهای تاثیرگذار یا بافتی (دیپلماسی فرهنگی و مذهبی، حضور نیروی خارجی در عراق، ساختار سیاسی عراق) به‌عنوان متغیرهای تعیین‌کننده قرار دارند، دو متغیر در گروه متغیرهای ریسکی (دشواری ژئوپلیتیکی و عوامل هیدروپلیتیکی)، دو متغیر (تجارت دفاعی بین دو کشور و همکاری‌های امنیتی) به‌عنوان هدف شناسایی شده است، پنج متغیر در گروه متغیرهای اهرمی (جامعه به هم پیوسته، ژئواکونومی ایران، بافت ناهمگن قومیتی و مذهبی، بازسازی پسا جنگ، وابستگی به نفت) هستند و در نهایت سه متغیر (محور مقاومت، دیپلماسی علمی، بحران‌های زیست‌محیطی) نیز در گروه متغیرهای تاثیرپذیر قرار گرفته‌اند.

identifying and explaining the key drivers affecting iran-iraq relations from a foresight research perspective (2025-2035)

introductioniraq is considered one of the most influential players in iran's neighbors and the west asian region due to its geopolitical location, potential economic capacities, and specific political, cultural, and social characteristics. iraq's specific geostrategic and geopolitical location, due to its artificiality, which is the product of the decisions of the supreme council of the league of nations in 1920, has played an important role in its foreign policy since the establishment of this country. therefore, iraq's geopolitical and geographical location and historical, diplomatic, religious, cultural, and economic relations with the islamic republic of iran are so important that it can be said that few countries in the world have this level of commonality; so that today, iran has become one of the most important actors in the political sphere of iraq. the relations between the two neighboring countries of iran and iraq have had many ups and downs over the past four decades. the special importance of iraq as iran's most important neighbor in the west asian region has made deepening relations with this country more evident to advance the goals of the regime and the strategic deepening of the islamic revolution. establishing bilateral relations to expand and deepen comprehensive strategic ties with iraq will be helpful and influential in building a desirable future for the relations between the two countries. the necessity of the present study on the future of iran-iraq relations also stems from this issue. therefore, the research question is formulated as follows: what are the most important drivers affecting iran-iraq relations in the period from 2025 to 2035? also, to answer this question, which also has a futures-oriented nature at the heart of the research, the present study is not a hypothesis test, but rather seeks to discover the variables and drivers affecting the comprehensive strategic relations between these two countries in a ten-year time horizon.theoretical frameworkthe theoretical framework of the present study is based on the theory of complex interdependence. in summary, some of the main propositions in the theory of complex interdependence, according to cohen and nye are: first: according to cohen and nye, if economic relations between countries are such that they have mutually costly effects and not simply symmetrical ones, it can be said that there is interdependence between them. however, if the interactions of countries do not have many costly effects, only a mutual link has been formed between them. second, in a situation of complex interdependence, the asymmetry between the parties causes one to influence the other. actors who are less dependent than others also have more bargaining power. third: nye and cohen believe that interdependence is not necessarily positive and based on common interests and may also be negative. theorists in this field have not only pointed to the quantitative increase in interconnections across various issues, but have also paid attention to the qualitative aspects of this development. from the researchers' perspective, complex interdependence has three characteristics: 1. the existence of multiple communication channels; 2. the absence of a clear hierarchy in various issues; 3. the reduction in the role of military forces; 4. these three main characteristics create distinct political and global processes that transform power resources into power as a force controlling outcomes.methodology this research was designed and conducted with a futures research approach, and in terms of methodology, its main core is structural analysis, which uses a variety of methods in its different parts. in futures research, we are not faced with a single future; rather, we are faced with a diverse range of futures that must be considered simultaneously in order to obtain positive and maximum results. the most important tool of futures research is the use of diverse and multiple methods. therefore, the present research is quantitative in nature and the cross-effect analysis technique has been used to examine the research objectives. accordingly, the methodological foundations of cross-effect analysis research have been used to examine the relations between iran and iraq to determine the impact of each of the variables mentioned in the mutual relations of the two countries in the probable future using the futures research method. to examine this goal, the miqmaq software, which is designed for cross-effect analysis, has been used.results & discussion the software output of the variables affecting iran-iraq relations indicates that among the fifteen selected variables, although there is no contextual variable in the system, three determining variables have been identified that are considered the main drivers of iran-iraq relations. among these three variables, the cultural and religious diplomacy variable is considered a positive factor in the diplomatic interactions of the two sides, and the presence of shrines around the country, which have many enthusiasts in the two countries, has the necessary ability to influence other variables in the direction of relations between iran and iraq; however, two other determining variables (the presence of foreign forces in iraq and the political structure of iraq) hurt iran-iraq relations, which in addition to affecting other variables in the system, also can negatively affect diplomatic relations between iran and iraq and should be considered in the relations between the two sides.in the group of risk variables, which includes variables that have the possibility of increasing the cost of diplomatic relations, two variables have been identified: hydro-political factors and geopolitical difficulty. in the second part, two bivariate variables have been identified: security cooperation, which is very close to the center of the system and can even be selected as a regulatory variable. in parallel with this factor, the defense trade variable has been identified, which complements the security cooperation of the two countries. in the third part, there are independent variables that include two parts: the interconnected society variables that refer to the religious homogeneity between the shiite majority of the two countries, along with the heterogeneous context that emphasizes the ethnic and religious gaps that exist, especially in iraq, along with the oil-dependent economic situation in the lever variables, which indicate that these three variables have been influential in the history of relations between the two countries; in the second part, which includes two variables, iran's geo-economics situation and post-war reconstruction, and in the cross-effects of these two variables, they have been identified without affecting the system..conclusions & suggestions two basic points in concluding that ten percent of the variables are of fundamental importance:- the security cooperation variable is located in the center and is the most active variable in establishing communication with other variables, which also confirms its special importance in diplomatic interactions between the parties.- on the other hand, iraq's political structure variable is located, which has the greatest direct impact on other variables.