آینده‌پژوهی خیریه‌ها و خیرخواهی در شهر تهران

پژوهش حاضر تلاش می‌کند تا در حوزه معرفتی آینده‌پژوهی، با استفاده از روش‌شناسی کیفی و تکنیک دلفی کیفی، نگاه فعالان حوزه خیر به آینده را توصیف کند. در این پژوهش که قلمرو آن شهر تهران و جامعه هدف آن فعالان حوزه خیر شهر تهران است، با استفاده از نمونه‌گیری نظری و مصاحبه عمیق و نیمه‌عمیق به‌منظور گردآوری داده‌های مورد نیاز استفاده شد و درنهایت، داده‌ها با استفاده از تکنیک تحلیل محتوای کیفی در دو حیطه آینده ممکن و آینده مطلوب تفسیر شدند. براساس یافته‌های پژوهش حاضر، فعالان خیریه‌ها در شهر تهران، آینده ممکن این حوزه را توام با افزایش عقلانیت سازمانی و ماندگاری معضلات ساختاری می‌دانند. همچنین، این فعالان آینده مطلوب خیریه‌ها و خیرخواهی در شهر تهران را در دو مقوله توسعه سازمانی و رفع موانع ساختاری خلاصه کرده‌اند. آنچه از نتایج پژوهش به دست آمده، اختلاف آشکاری است که فعالان خیر شهر تهران میان آینده ممکن و آینده مطلوب می‌بینند.

futures studies of charities and philanthropy in tehran

introductionmany researchers have addressed the role of non-governmental organizations in iran and have examined it from various aspects (pirmoradian et al., 2019; javid et al., 2017; saliani and vosoughi, 2016; valimohammadi and eskandarinezhad, 2022). the growing importance of these organizations in social life cannot be hidden. however, despite the numerous pieces of research that have been conducted on the nature, function, and history of these organizations in iran, less attention has been paid to their future. activists and policymakers in this field need to have information about possible and desirable future scenarios. concerning the interdisciplinary field of futurology, to clarify the goals of this field, describe the current trends, explain the prevailing conditions and depict the possible and desirable futures, which are all the tasks of this interdisciplinary field (bell, 2013), the present research tries to check the state of charities and benevolence in tehran. the main question of the current research is the following: what will be the status of charities and philanthropy in the city of tehran from the point of view of activists in this field in the future and what will be the desired situation? from this point of view, related domestic and foreign research have been reviewed and discussed (shirvani and rajabi, 2011; majidi and hamissi, 2013; jalali et al., 2015; saliani and vosoughi, 2016; razeghi and lotfi-khachaki, 2018; parsons, 2002). it is worth noting that not much attention has been paid to the future research of charities and benevolence. research methodologythe current research is qualitative from the perspective of methodology and uses the qualitative delphi method to collect, reduce and describe data. the main goal of the delphi method is to predict possible alternative options for the future to influence the actions or thoughts of decision-makers (bell, 2013). the main tool for data collection in the qualitative delphi method is the in-depth and semi-in-depth interview, which is also used in this research. for this purpose, semi-in-depth interviews have been used to collect the data of the current research among senior employees and ceos of charities in tehran. the sample size of the present study was 12 people and the sampling method was theoretical. the participants in the research have been selected because they are all real or legal active members of the philanthropy environment of iran. for this purpose, charitable activists who participate in active and prominent charities have been selected as examples of this research. in this study, inductive qualitative content analysis has been used. in this type of content analysis, researchers avoid using prior categories and instead arrange the categories to emerge from the data and float themselves on the waves of data to obtain new knowledge. therefore, through induction, categories emerge from the data. from another point of view, the content analysis of the current research is of a conventional type, which means that the extracted codes are defined during the analysis of the findings, and the study is keyed by viewing the raw text instead of starting from the theory (hsieh and shannon, 2005). research findingsbased on the qualitative content analysis of the conducted interviews, the extracted categories were categorized in the form of possible future and desired future. in the possible future section, two main categories of increasing organizational rationality and structural problems were extracted. increasing the rationality of the organization, which is known for greater transparency and the use of new technologies, is one of the issues that researchers from other countries have also pointed out.