تحلیل پیشران‌های موثر بر بازآفرینی بافت تاریخی شهری با رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی (مورد مطالعه: شهر کاشان)

بافت تاریخی گستره‌ای هم‌پیوند از بناها، مجموعه‌ها، فضاها و یا تجهیزات شهری است که دارای آثار باارزش به‌ جامانده از گذشتگان و جایگزین‌ناپذیری هستند که در آگاهی جوامع از گذشته و ارزش‌های فرهنگی خود نقش شایانی دارد. بافت تاریخی کاشان، همانند سایر بافت‌های قدیمی، عناصر کلیدی و فضاهای شهری متمرکزی دارد که شامل میدانچه‌ها، حسینیه‌ها، مساجد، بازارچه‌ها و آب‌انبارهاست. هدف از پژوهش حاضر بررسی پیشران‌های موثر بر بازآفرینی بافت تاریخی کاشان با رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی است. روش پژوهش از نوع اکتشافی- کاربردی است. گردآوری داده‌ها و اطلاعات به کمک روش‌های کتابخانه‌ای و پیمایشی بوده است. نمونۀ آماری این پژوهش شامل سی متخصص خبره در حوزۀ برنامه‌ریزی شهری بود که در دو مرحلۀ‌ متوالی به روش دلفی مورد پرسش قرار گرفتند. هر مرحله با مشارکت پانزده نفر از این متخصصان انجام شد. برای تحلیل و رتبه‌بندی عوامل کلیدی موثر بر بازآفرینی بافت تاریخی، از روش میک‌مک استفاده شده است. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که ده عامل حکمروایی خوب شهری، تاب‌آوری شهری، تاسیسات زیرساختی، تزریق به‌موقع بودجه و اعتبارات، تکنولوژی‌های ساخت سریع، ارزان، تضمین امنیت سکونت در بافت، تشکل‌های محلی برای مشارکت، سرمایۀ اجتماعی، ظرفیت برای افزایش درآمد ساکنان و تعادل‌بخشی و عدالت اجتماعی جزو عوامل کلیدی و مهم برای توسعۀ بازآفرینی در شهر کاشان تعیین شده‌اند.

analysis of the drivers influencing the revitalization of urban historical fabric with a futures studies approach (case study: the city of kashan)

introductionthe historical fabric is an interconnected expanse of buildings, complexes, spaces, or urban facilities that contain valuable, irreplaceable remnants from the past, playing a significant role in raising community awareness of their history and cultural values. in our country, the historical fabric refers to that part of the urban structure formed before 1921 (1300 hijri shamsi). these areas, despite their significant identity value, generally suffer from physical decay, lack of safety standards, and inadequate urban services and infrastructure, leading to a lower status in terms of residence and location. specifically, parts of iranian cities formed up to the qajar era can be considered historical fabric, representing a period before the transformative changes of the first pahlavi era began.methodologythe research method is exploratory-applied. data collection was conducted through library and survey methods. the sample for expert interviews (to analyze the driving forces) consisted of 30 individuals divided into two groups of 15, following the delphi model. the micmac method was employed to analyze and rank the key factors affecting the regeneration of the historical fabric. this method, rooted in foresight studies and strategic planning, aids in identifying and analyzing the drivers and dependencies related to overall decision-making.results and discussionafter screening the research variables, 38 variables were selected as initial influential factors for the regeneration of the historical fabric, categorized into five main factors (economic, social, physical, environmental, and managerial-institutional). these variables were analyzed using the micmac software. according to the results, the distribution and dispersion of variables influencing regeneration in kashan on the scatterplot indicated system instability. thus, five categories of variables (influential variables, two-dimensional variables, regulatory variables, dependent variables, and independent variables) were identified and elaborated upon. the variables that had the most significant impact on regeneration development, as well as those two-dimensional variables (with both high influence and dependency on other factors), were identified as key factors. therefore, the ten key and important factors for urban regeneration development in kashan were determined to be: good urban governance, urban resilience, infrastructure facilities, timely budget and funding allocation, rapid and cost-effective construction technologies, ensuring residential security in the fabric, local organizations for participation, social capital, capacity to increase residents’ income, and balancing and social justice.conclusionthe structural development of the city of kashan for the current and future state requires considering key factors in planning. for structural planning of urban redevelopment in kashan, all factors involved in urban redevelopment planning are regarded as an interconnected system with integrated elements, and their interrelationships are assessed to identify the superior factors with the most significant influence. these key factors are then employed in urban redevelopment planning to ensure that the redevelopment system in kashan results in the most sustainable development for the city. to achieve this, all components of social, environmental, economic, physical, and managerial-institutional factors are incorporated as a system.the factors that have had the greatest impact on redevelopment, as well as dual-impact factors (those that are both highly influenced by and have a significant impact on other factors), have been identified as key factors. therefore, it can be stated that the redevelopment of historic urban fabrics is driven by a complex interaction of factors, including historical awareness, adaptive strategies, community participation, economic sustainability, and strong policy frameworks. future research should continue to explore these drivers in various contexts to develop comprehensive models that address the unique challenges faced by cities undergoing redevelopment. by integrating these elements into planning processes, cities can create resilient environments that honor their past while embracing future scenarios.