حفظ و احیا تالاب هامون راهکاری مشترک برای ایران و افغانستان در زمینه مواجهه با پدیده تغییر اقلیم

کشورهای ایران و افغانستان در طول تاریخ با خطرهای اقلیمی مواجه بوده‌اند که منجر به خسارت‌های جانی، محیط‌زیستی و اقتصادی گسترده‌ای شده است. در این پژوهش شرایط بلند مدت اقلیمی گذشته دو کشور ایران و افغانستان در مقیاس کلان ملی و از منظر پارامترهای اقلیمی و مخاطرات طبیعی مقایسه گردید و بر مبنای گزارش ششم هیات بین الدول تغییر اقلیم تصویرسازی شرایط محتمل دوره آتی تحت سناریوهای مختلف برای پارامترهای دما و بارندگی ارائه گردید تا شباهت اقلیمی دو کشور از منظر شاخصهای مذکور تبیین گردد و در نهایت با بهره گیری از روش تحقیق کیفی دلیل توجه به حفاظت و احیا تالاب بمنظور راهکار مشترک دو کشور در مواجهه با پدیده تغییر اقلیم تبیین گردید. نتایج نشان داد که بیشترین میانگین دما در هر دو کشور به سال‌های اخیر تعلق دارد و بیشترین تغییر در توزیع میانگین دما در 80 سال اخیر، متعلق به دوره 1991-2020 است. دهه اخیر ، گرم‌ترین دهه بوده است. بیشترین حوادث رخ‌داده و تعداد افراد تحت تاثیر در 40 سال اخیر در هر دو کشور بررسی می‌شود. حفظ و احیا تالاب یک استراتژی سه گانه سازگار با تغییر اقلیم است و در شرایطی که هر دو کشور متاثر از تغییر اقلیم هستند، تمرکز جدی بر حفظ و احیای تالاب هامون و همچنین نقش اشخاص ثالث در عرصه بین‌المللی در زمینه تالاب یا تغییر اقلیم یا هر دو، از راهکارهای مهم برای حل مناقشه بین دو کشور است.

preservation and res toration of hamoun wetland: a joint solution for iran and afghanis tan in the field of facing the climate change phenomenon

introduction climate change is one of the mos t significant environmental challenges. it causes anincrease in the average global temperature, widespread melting of snow and ice, risingsea levels, air pollution, poverty, etc. no region in the world is immune from thisphenomenon. however, it is more severe in some countries like iran and afghanis tan.climate change in iran has caused an increase in average temperature, a decreasein rainfall, and as a result, an increase in the occurrence of droughts and floods,a decrease in water resources, etc. afghanis tan is also one of the mos t vulnerablecountries to climate change adverse effects, and the consequences of climate changeinclude temperature increases, changes in precipitation patterns and extreme weatherevents, food insecurity, etc. this s tudy examines the pas t climate conditions of iranand afghanis tan on a macro-national scale and compares them with common solutionsin this area.materials and methodsin this research, we use a qualitative research method and a review approach basedon modeling at the international level. extracting the results on a national scale hasalso been done through the data and information provided by the climate changeknowledge portal in the field of temperature, precipitation, and natural hazards in iranand afghanis tan.result and discussionin the firs t part, iran and afghanis tan’s his torical problems in the field of the hirmandriver are examined. this dispute is 150 years old and the fact that afghanis tan isups tream of the hirmand river has caused iran to ignore its water rights. then, pas t andfuture climatic conditions of iran and afghanis tan are s tudied on a macro scale fromthe three perspectives of temperature, precipitation, and natural hazards. the monthlyclimatology of min-temperature, mean temperature, and max-temperature shows that the max and min-temperatures in both countries were in july and january, respectively, and the meantemperature is also similar. the highes t and lowes t precipitation in iran is in march and augus t,respectively. these values for afghanis tan correspond to march and september, respectively. thehighes t observed annual mean temperature in both countries in the las t 120 years also belongs torecent years. the variability and trends of mean temperature and precipitation across the seasonalcycle of iran and afghanis tan show that the highes t mean temperature belongs to july and thehighes t amount of precipitation belongs to march. iran and afghanis tan have also experienced thegreates t changes in mean temperature dis tribution. similarly, for precipitation, it is observed thatthe mos t change in precipitation dis tribution in iran belongs to 1951-1980 and in afghanis tan to1971-2000. annual and monthly trends of mean temperature and mean precipitation have increasedand decreased respectively. finally, the projected mean temperature from 2000 to 2100 basedon ssp scenarios, as well as the projected mean temperature anomaly, has been examined. themos t deviations for both countries s tarted in the 2010s and continue until 2100. the s tudy of theprojected annual spei drought index, illus trated based on five scenarios, indicates global warmingintensification and a decrease in precipitation. the s tudy of natural hazard s tatis tics in iran andafghanis tan in the las t 40 years also shows that earthquakes, floods, s torms, and landslides havemos tly occurred. the occurrence of drought and flooding has also affected the mos t people.in the second part, the three basic axes of adaptation, mitigation, and disas ter risk reduction areintroduced to deal with climate change. it is shown that preserving and res toring wetlands is the onlys trategy that pays attention to all three axes. wetlands help adapt to climate change by improvingwater quality, supporting biodiversity, and producing organic matter and food. also, they have thehighes t carbon absorption rate and act as a natural carbon sink, causing carbon seques tration andreducing greenhouse gas emissions. wetlands also help reduce natural disas ters and are resilient tofloods, droughts, fires, s torms, landslides, and erosion.