بررسی تغییرات مکانی فرونشست دشت دامغان و پیش‌بینی آن با استفاده مدل شبکه عصبی مصنوعی

فرونشست زمین در اثر بهره‌برداری بی‌رویه از آب‌های زیرزمینی و درنتیجه کاهش تراز سطح آب زیرزمینی در بسیاری از مناطق جهان از جمله ایران به‌ عنوان یک خطر جدی آبخوان‌های دشت‌ها را مورد تهدید جدی قرار داده است. در این تحقیق با توجه به اهمیت مساله، فرونشست زمین در آبخوان دشت دامغان واقع در استان سمنان مورد مطالعه و بررسی قرار گرفت. بدین منظور، مقدار فرونشست بصورت میدانی در محل پیزومترها اندازه‌گیری گردید و سپس تغییرات مکانی آن با استفاده از روش‌های مرسوم مانند روش درون‌یابی کریجینگ، کو کریجینگ، درون‌یابی وزنی معکوس فاصله(idw) مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. همچنین از مدل شبکه عصبی مصنوعی برای برآورد و درون‌یابی مقدار فرونشست مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. مقایسه بین برآورد مقادیر فرونشست با استفاده از مدل شبکه عصبی مصنوعی در مقایسه با روش درون‌یابی کوکریجینگ و idw نشان می‌دهد، که مدل شبکه عصبی مصنوعی با ضریب تبیین0.721 و هچنین مقدار خطای rmse برابر با 0.017 متر ، در مرحله صحت سنجی توانسته است عملکرد بهتری در مقایسه با روش‌های کوکریجینگ و idw با مقدار خطای rmse برابر با 0.031 و 0.037 متر داشته باشد. استفاده از مدل شبکه عصبی مصنوعی مقدار خطای rmse را در مقایسه با دو روش کوکریجینگ و idw به ترتیب 46.3 و 54.4 درصد کاهش داده است. لذا مدل شبکه عصبی مصنوعی می‌تواند با دقت مناسبی به‌عنوان روش جایگزین به‌جای روش‌های مرسوم درون‌یابی یادشده برای بررسی تغییرات مکانی فرونشست زمین مورد استفاده قرار گیرد.

study of the spatial changes subsidence of damghan plain and its prediction using artificial neural network model

indiscriminate exploitation of groundwater has caused a decrease in the groundwater level and as a result, has caused land subsidence in many areas. this problem is especially visible in arid and semi-arid regions like iran, where water supply for agriculture, drinking, and industry is done from groundwater water sources, and in recent years, it has seriously threatened the aquifers of the plains as a serious danger. in this research, due to the importance of the problem, land subsidence in the damghan plain aquifer located in semnan province was studied and investigated.in this research, the amount of subsidence was measured at the field, and then its spatial changes were investigated using conventional methods such as kriging interpolation, co-kriging, and inverse distance weighted interpolation (idw). also, the artificial neural network model was used to estimate and interpolate the amount of subsidence. three statistical indices namely the coefficient of correlation (r2), the root mean square error (rmse), and the mean absolute error (mae) were used to compare the estimation of subsidence values using an artificial neural network model, kriging interpolation method, cokriging, and idw. to perform interpolation using kriging, cokriging, and idw interpolation methods, the variogram of land subsidence data was drawn. also, in order to increase the accuracy of the mentioned models in predicting the amount of subsidence, the auxiliary variable of water level reduction was used.using different functions such as circular, spherical, exponential, gaussian, and linear models for plotting the semivariogram, results show that the gaussian function with segment-to-threshold ratio (c0/(c0+c)) equal to 0.26 has better performance compared to other models. also, the artificial neural network has a better performance compared to the kriging method and the inverse weighted distance method and has been able to reduce the rmse error value in the validation stage by 17.6% and 31.3%, respectively. it has also increased the value of the r2 from 0.502 and 0.421 to 0.721.the use of the auxiliary variable of water level reduction has increased the accuracy of the models used in predicting the amount of subsidence. in this case, the comparison between the estimation of subsidence values using the artificial neural network model compared to the interpolation method of kriging, cokriging, and idw shows that the artificial neural network model with a coefficient of determination (r2) of 0.860 and 0.751 and 0.015 and 0.017, has a better performance compared to the mentioned methods and reduce the amount of prediction error. therefore, the artificial neural network model can be used with good accuracy as an alternative method instead of conventional interpolation methods to investigate the spatial changes of land subsidence.in recent years, the phenomenon of land subsidence has occurred in many plains of iran due to excessive extraction of underground water, including damghan plain. in this research, by using the measured data of land subsidence in this plain, its spatial changes were investigated using kriging and cokriging methods (geostatistics method), inverse distance weighted method (idw), and weighted idw (deterministic method) in the whole plain. it placed. the research results showed:• compared to circular, spherical, exponential, and linear functions, the gaussian function can better estimate the spatial changes of land subsidence.• the results of the kriging method were better than the inverse distance weighted (idw) method.• the artificial neural network model with gauss function and two intermediate layers has better performance than other transfer models such as sigmoid, hyperbolic tangent, and hyperbolic bade secant.• the use of artificial neural network model has increased the accuracy of land subsidence estimation compared to conventional methods such as the kriging method and inverse weighted distance method.