ارزیابی اثرات توسعه ی حوضه ی آبریز کارون بزرگ بر تولید انرژی برقابی

حوضه‌ی آبریز کارون بزرگ به عنوان تآمین کننده‌ی بخش مهمی از انرژی برقابی کشور، حائز اهمیت فراوان است. در این پژوهش اثرات توسعه‌ی حوضه‌ی آبریز کارون بزرگ بر تولید انرژی برقابی این حوضه مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. به این منظور با توجه به زمان‌بندی پروژه‌های اجرایی توسعه‌ی منابع آب درحوضه‌ی مورد بررسی، مدل منابع، مصارف و مخازن حوضه،‌ تحت 11سناریو در سه افق زمانی شرایط موجود، افق زمانی 1404و افق زمانی 1420 با در نظر گرفتن ترکیب‌های گوناگون از منابع و مصارف آب حوضه‌‌ درمحیط نرم‌افزار ویپ تهیه گردید، و سپس با توجه به نتایج حاصل از اجرای مدل تهیه شده، انرژی برقابی اولیه تولید شده در محیط نرم افزار اکسل محاسبه گردید، و نتایج آن مورد بررسی و تحلیل قرار گرفت. نتایج حاصل از این پژوهش نشان دهنده‌ی کمبود قابل ملاحظه‌ی انرژی برقابی اولیه تولید شده در نیروگاه‌های حوضه در مقایسه با نیاز انرژی، در هر سه افق زمانی مورد بررسی و در نتیجه عدم توانایی منابع آب حوضه‌ جهت توسعه‌ی بیشتر و اثرات قابل توجه طرح‌های انتقال بین حوضه‌‌ای آب بر میزان تولید انرژی برقابی است.

impacts assessment of karun bozorg catchment development on production of hydrpower energy

introduction iran, with rainfall of less than one third of the world average, is considered one of the arid regions, and this is despite the fact that on the one hand, a significant part of the water leaves the country. on the other hand, due to improper exploitation of sources and lack of integration in the studies of different plans at the level of catchment basins. the goals of many dam construction projects such as water regulation and containment in order to meet the need and produce electric energy in contrast to other plans such as water transfer between basins or the expansion of agricultural areas the subject of the present research is to investigate the effects of the development of the great karun watershed, whether in the form of inter-basin water transfer plans or in the form of intra-basin development, on the amount of electrical energy produced by the dams of this basin.materials and methods the area studied in this research is the great karun watershed, which consists of karun and dez rivers that are two important and large rivers in iran. these two rivers currently have 6 dams with the ability to produce electric energy, of which 5 dams, karun 4, karun 3, karun 1, godarlander and upper gotund are located on the karun river and dez reservoir dam is located on the dez river.results and discussions after 2008, the amount of withdrawal from underground water resources has increased and currently it is more than the amount considered in this research, so definitely the amount of the effect of excessive withdrawal from underground water resources on the production of electric energy is more than the value shown has been done in this research. and if this upward trend of extraction from underground water resources continues, the reduction of produced electrical energy due to excessive extraction from underground water resources will be significant in the future time horizons. excessive extraction of the underground water resources of the sezar basin, contrary to the fact that it is expected to be effective only in the amount of electric energy production of the dez dam power plant, the power plants of other reservoirs, especially the karun 3 power plant, are also effective on the karun river.the development of the great karun catchment basin has had the greatest impact on the primary energy production of dez and karun 4 and karun 3 reservoir dams, which is primarily due to the transfer plans between water basins and secondly due to the relationship with the karun 4 and dez dams, there is no other reservoir dam immediately upstream of these two dams, because the presence of one dam immediately upstream of the other dam causes the water flow to enter the dam in a regulated manner, which it causes a significant increase in electricity production.conclusion the results of this research show that according to the energy requirement defined for the power plants of great karun basin, there is currently a significant lack of primary energy, which is the lack of ability of the basin for further development, both internally and externally. the existence of the annual deficit percentage of the required primary energy is equal to 29% for the current basin power plant complex and with the current water transfer needs and plans, and the increase of this deficit percentage to 36% for the horizon of 2040 and the uses within the basin and the plan. the inter-basin water transfer considered in this research, for this time horizon, considering the importance of electric energy as one of the most important and best sources of electricity production in the country and the impossibility of predicting the future climate and its effect on the drainage of the basin is very important and somewhat worrying.