simulation of land use change in mashhad metropolitan area: using multi-layer perceptron and markov chine model for 2000- 2030

The purpose of this study is to simulate land cover and land use(lclu) change and identify the driving factors affecting its changes in mashhad metropolitan area(mma) during 2000 to 2030. multilayer perceptron (mlp) and markov chain model (mlp_x0002_markov) were used in terrset and gis software. to this end, landsat 7 and 8 satellite images for 2000, 2010 and 2019 were used. six driving factors were used to identify the variables affecting the simulation of 2030 lclu change. with maximum likelihood probability equation land uses were classified into 9 categories. according to the results of the study, during the period 2000 to 2019, net positive changes of lclu change in mma was 7685.41ha (31.37%) for residential, industrial, commercial and construction uses (ricus). the remaining six land uses -9.37% decreased, including: mass and light vegetation (-1.25%), uncultivated land (-11.22%), barren land (sand and soil) (-5.40%) and mountainous land (-30.48%). to confirm the prediction of land use changes until 2030, the results of using the overall coefficient of kappa (0.9106) and roc (0.555) were acceptable. the result of using cramer s v statistics (0.9361) to measure the effect of driving variables on land use forecast was approved. predicting lclu change for the 2019-2030 periods using mlp-markov showed that ricus will increase by 1779.44 ha (5.53%). while the area of remaining six lclu change will be reduced to -2.40%. in general, the distance from river, dem, and industrial centers have played an important role in changing the sub-models of land uses. the spatial distribution of land use changes from 2000 to 2019 represents two types of patterns. panned distribution in the form of city master plans on barren lands on the west side and mountain slopes on the south side of the city. irregular and unplanned distribution on agricultural and barren lands along roads in the north, northwest and east of the city. findings are useful for planning