بررسی اثرات نامتقارن نیروی کار غیررسمی بردرآمدهای مالیات برارزش افزوده

هدف این پژوهش بررسی اثر نامتقارن نیروی کار غیررسمی بر درآمدهای مالیات بر ارزش افزوده در استانهای ایران با استفاده از داده های تابلویی در سالهای 1390 تا 1398 است. نتایج به دست آمده نشان میدهد رابطه بین نیروی کار غیررسمی و درآمد مالیات بر ارزش افزوده ابتدا مثبت و بعد از رسیدن به یک سطح آستانهٔ مشخص منفی میشود به این معنا که نیروی کار غیررسمی بر درآمدهای مالیات بر ارزش افزوده دارای نقطه آستانه ای است. همچنین نتایج نشان میدهد که رابطه بین درآمدهای مالیات بر ارزش افزوده و شاخص قیمت مصرف کننده و همچنین نرخ بیکاری منفی و معنی دار است. از طرفی رابطه درآمدهای مالیات بر ارزش افزوده و جمعیت مثبت و معنی دار .است بر اساس ضرایب به دست آمده رابطه بین مالیات بر ارزش افزوده دوره قبل و مالیات بر ارزش افزوده دوره فعلی مثبت و معنی دار است. ضمن آنکه نیروی کار غیررسمی از نظر اندازه و اثر بر درآمدهای مالیات بر ارزش افزوده در استانهای مختلف ایران متفاوت است.

investigating the asymmetric effect of informal labor on value added tax revenues

in the value added tax system, the purchases of each company are announced to it by the seller company. therefore, if a company declares the tax less than the limit, or does not pay the relevant tax, this tax will be transferred to the next buyer, for this reason, all buyers and sellers will be placed in a self-control system. and this makes all companies register in the value added tax system. but its income performance can be weakened in the case of informal labor conditions. because the incomes from informal labor activities are hidden and not reported. informal labor has a two-way effect on value added tax revenues, because just as informal labor has an effect on value added tax revenues, value added tax can also have an effect on informal labor. the purpose of this study is to investigate the asymmetric effect of informal labor on value added tax revenues in iran’s provinces using panel data in the years 2010 to 2018. the obtained results show that the relationship between informal labor and value added tax income is initially positive and after reaching a certain threshold level, the relationship becomes negative, which means that informal labor has a threshold point on value added tax income. also, the results showed that the relationship between value added tax revenues and unemployment rate is negative and significant, and the relationship between value added tax revenues and population and gdp is positive and significant. based on the obtained coefficients, the relationship between the value added tax of the previous period and the value added tax of thecurrent period is positive and significant. also, the results show that the informal workforce is different in terms of size, and the effect on value added tax revenues in different provinces of iran. an increase in the tax rate can generate less additional revenues than expected, and this is due to the mixed effect of informal labor, which results in a reduction of the vat self-enforcement mechanism