بررسی تطبیقی الگوی رای‌دهی در دوره دهم و یازدهم مجلس شورای اسلامی (مورد: حوزه انتخابیه قصرشیرین، سرپل ذهاب و گیلان‌غرب)

پژوهش حاضر باهدف بررسی و تحلیل عوامل موثر بر رفتار رای‌دهی در حوزه انتخابیه شهرستان‌های سرپل ذهاب، قصرشیرین و گیلان‌غرب در دو دوره دهم و یازدهم انتخابات مجلس شورای اسلامی انجام شده است. این پژوهش با استفاده از چارچوب نظری، ترکیبی از مدل‌های رفتارشناسی انتخاباتی، به تحلیل نقش متغیرهای کلیدی مانند شکاف‌ ایلی - طایفه‌ای، شکاف‌ مذهبی، شهرستان‌گرایی، جناح‌بندی سیاسی و عامل اقتصادی در شکل‌دهی به الگوی رای‌دهی در این مناطق پرداخته است. یافته‌های پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که در هر دو دوره، متغیرهای مذکور بر رفتار انتخاباتی اثر گذار بوده اند و تغییراتی در میزان و نحوه تاثیرگذاری این عوامل بین دو دوره مشاهده شده است. به‌ویژه، در دوره یازدهم، تاثیر شکاف‌های ایلی - طایفه‌ای و شهرستان‌گرایی افزایش‌یافته است که نشان‌دهنده تقویت هویت‌های محلی و قومی در فرایند تصمیم‌گیری سیاسی است. در مقابل، نقش شکاف مذهبی نسبت به دوره دهم کاهش یافته است که می‌تواند ناشی از تحولات اجتماعی و تغییرات در اولویت‌های رای‌دهندگان یا اشخاص صحب نفوذ این عرصه باشد. علاوه بر این، نقش جناح‌بندی‌های سیاسی و مسائل اقتصادی در دوره یازدهم برجسته‌تر از دوره دهم بوده و نشان‌دهنده افزایش توجه رای‌دهندگان به وضعیت اقتصادی، تعلقات و تعصبات سیاسی است.

comparative study of the voting pattern in the 10th and 11th periods of the islamic council elections; case study: qasr-e shirin, sar-e pol-e zahab and gilan gharb constituencies

introductionelections, as a political behavior, are the most important arena of political participation and play a fundamental role in determining the fate of society. participation in elections and the act of voting are also the crystallization the will of public opinion and voters. accordingly, analyzing electoral behavior of different periods can provide a more accurate understanding of the political, social and economic developments of each period. the present study aims to investigate, explain and analyze the factors affecting electoral behavior of the tenth and eleventh periods of the islamic consultative assembly elections in the constituencies of qasr-e-shirin, sar-e pol-e zahab and gilan gharb. the importance, necessity and motivation for choosing the subject, on the one hand, goes back to the fundamental position of the legislative branch, whose function has a fundamental impact and role on the fate of the people and the country. on the other hand, it is related to the constituency, which has not been researched in this field so far. this work is the first study and a response to this necessity.the theoretical framework of the research is a combination of electoral behavior models and, based on this, it analyzes the role of tribal-ethnic divide, religious divide, and city-based orientation as long-term factors and political factionalism and economic factors as short-term factors in shaping the voting pattern of the constituency.this constituency includes three cities with a population of 165,602 people and one representative. it also has specific geographical, cultural, and historical characteristics, a diverse population, and different economic and social conditions. the people of these areas are kurds and are formed from different tribes and clans. culturally, they are also a mixture of sunnis, shiites, and ahl al-haqq. these characteristics have been able to leave significant and noticeable effects on political and electoral orientations over time and in different periods.methodologythe data gathering procedure is based library and field finding method. the number of sample is 395 people who are 20 years old and more. t-test and paired t-tests are used to compare variables in the 10th and 11th elections of the islamic consultative assembly in the study area. the statistical method is used to compare the nature of the analyses.discussion and resultsthe results showed that the long-term and short-term variables of the research have had an effect on voting behavior in both election periods. however, there are differences in the extent and manner of the effects of the aforementioned factors between the two periods. in such a way that the role of the tribal-clan divides and county orientation has increased in the 11th period compared to the 10th period, which indicates the strengthening and attention to ethnic and local identities. in contrast, the role of religious divide has decreased compared to the tenth period, which could indicate a change in voters' prioritization or a change in the approach of influential individuals in this field. the role of political factionalism and the economic factor has also been greater in the 11th period which could be due to voters' increased attention to economic and livelihood conditions and political affiliations. however, the presence of candidates as voters with special political, social characteristics and financial capabilities at unconventional expense should not be ignored in voters' behavior. conclusionthe analysis of the voting pattern in the constituencies of qasr-e shirin, sar-e pol-e zahab and gilan gharb in the tenth and eleventh periods of the islamic consultative assembly shows significant changes in voters' priorities. the results of the analysis of the voting pattern in the social, political and economic space indicate the importance of paying attention to local, ethnic, religious and cultural needs. therefore, the analysis of the findings indicates both the change and stability of some factors in the voting pattern. overall, the analysis of these two periods shows that voting patterns were influenced by a combination of long-term and short-term factors. while some factors, such as religious divides, have remained stable, others, such as tribal-ethnic divides, city-state orientation, and political factionalism, have seen significant changes with increasing trends. the increasing importance of economic issues in both periods also indicates that livelihood problems and obstacles have remained at the center of voters’ decision-making.