شناسایی و ارزیابی عوامل بازدارنده و تقویت‌کنندۀ گردشگری برون‌مرزی در ایران با تمرکز بر عوارض خروج: به‌کارگیری روش ardl

در سال‌های گذشته، افزایش عوارض خروج از کشور همواره با انتقاداتی روبه‌رو بوده است. عوارض خروج از کشور یکی از راه‌های درآمدی دولت برای جبران کسری بودجه ‏است. با توجه به اهمیت مسافرت‌های خارجی در ارتباط‌گیری با سایر نقاط جهان، پژوهش حاضر  به بررسی اثر افزایش عوارض خروج از کشور بر مسافرت‌های خارجی در کشور ایران پرداخته است. سال‌های 1385 تا 1400 برای دورۀ زمانی تحقیق با توجه به دسترسی به داده‌ها، بررسی شد. در این پژوهش، از روش ardl برای بررسی هم‌انباشتگی و از آزمون علیت گرنجر برای تحلیل رابطۀ علت و معلولی بین متغیرها استفاده شده است.  متغیر وابستۀ این پژوهش تعداد مسافرت‌های خارجی بوده است. متغیرهای مستقل شامل عوارض خروج از کشور، تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه، نرخ ارز، نرخ تورم و هزینۀ ویزاست. نتایج بلندمدت و کوتاه‌مدت نشان داد که متغیرهای تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه و نرخ تورم اثر مثبت و معناداری بر تعداد مسافرت‌های خارجی (برحسب تعداد مسافر) خواهند داشت و از طرفی، متغیرهای نرخ ارز و هزینۀ ویزا و عوارض خروج از کشور اثر منفی و معنا‌داری بر کاهش تعداد مسافرت‌های خارجی (برحسب تعداد مسافر) خواهند گذاشت. همچنین اندازۀ ضرایب در کوتاه‌مدت نشان می‌دهد که به لحاظ قدرمطلقی، اندازه‌ها کمتر از ضرایب بلندمدت هستند و این نشان می‌دهد که متغیرها در بلندمدت تاثیر متقابل و تقویت‌کننده‌ای بر یکدیگر دارند. ضریب تصحیح خطای هم‌انباشتگی (ecm) برابر 62 درصد برآورد شد. این نشان می‌دهد که سالانه 62 درصد از هرگونه انحراف از تعادل بلندمدت جبران می‌شود.

identifying and evaluating the preventing and enhancing factors of outbound tourism in iran (ardl model)

in the past years, the increase in departure tax has always been criticised. on the other hand, departure tax is one of the government’s income to overcome the budget deficit. regarding the importance of outbound tourism in expanding relations with other countries, the present research tries to investigate the impact of increase in departure tax on outbound tourism in iran. the period of 2006-2021 was examined in this research due to data access. in this study, the ardl test method was utilized to check the accumulation in the series and the granger causality method was also used to check the cause and effect relationship between the variables. dependent variable is the number of outbound trips (in terms of the number of passengers) and the explanatory variables are departure tax, gdp per capita, currency exchange rate, inflation rate and visa cost. the results show that the gdp per capita and the inflation rate have a positive and significant effect on the number of outbound trips, and the exchange rate, visa cost and the departure tax have negative and significant effects on the number of travelers. the size of the coefficients in short term also show that; the absolute values are somewhat lower than the long-run coefficients, which suggests that they reinforce each other in the long-run in trms of mutual effects of the variables. the ecm coefficient is also equal to 62% which shows that in each one-year time period, 62% of the deviation from the long-term balance is compensated. keywords: departure tax, outboundtravel, tourism, ardl model, grangery causality 1. introductiontourism has become one of the largest and most profitable economic sectors in the world and is known as the third largest economic industry in the world. in the present era, tourism is considered one of the effective factors in expanding relations between nations and is considered to be a creator of job opportunities in the economic sector and the creation of socio-cultural interactions. given the benefits of tourism, many countries consider this industry as a major source of income, employment, private sector growth, and infrastructure development. one way to generate income through the tourism industry could be through the fees that people have to pay when leaving the country. in the past years, the increase in departure tax has always been criticised. on the other hand, departure tax is one of the government’s income to overcome the budget deficit. regarding the importance of outbound tourism in expanding relations with other countries, the present research tries to investigate the impact of increase in departure tax on outbound tourism in iran. the period of 2006-2021 was examined in this research due to data access. radmanesh (1402) calls exit fees a tax paid by travelers. despite governments’ justifications for imposing tourism fees and taxes, the literature has different opinions on the importance of tourism taxes on the economy. since increasing fees has significant negative effects on the tourism industry, several studies suggest eliminating or reducing entry and exit fees. one type of tax that has become popular in recent years as a result of the expansion of transportation and communications, in the form of travel to other countries, is the fees that countries collect from their citizens when they leave the country. in fact, exit fees are a type of fee that an individual pays when traveling abroad. this amount varies for each group of travelers according to the frequency and reason for the trip. in iran, the amount of fees is proposed to the islamic consultative assembly every year by the government, and if approved, a new rate for exit fees is considered. factors such as the number of trips abroad, the type of border, and the type of trip (pilgrimage, tourism, and business) are influential in determining the cost of exit fees. according to the new resolution, 50 percent will be added to the second trip and 100 percent to the third trip compared to the exit fees for the first trip. 2. literature reviewthe literature that explicitly addresses the issue of tourism taxes and levies is somewhat vague compared to the tax literature in general. according to fujii, khaled and mak (1985), tourism taxes come in a variety of forms and are imposed by national and local governments as a means of financing public services used by both tourists and residents of tourist destinations. a tourism tax is an attractive option for governments facing budget constraints and pressure to reduce their reliance on other types of taxes. the tax can be levied on tourism businesses or directly on tourists. both methods may be implemented through the general tax system of the economy or through specific programs. it should be noted that most countries only charge an exit tax when someone leaves via air travel, in effect it is a tax that travelers pay for using the airport. finally, the general definition of tourism taxes and levies can be summarized as provided by the organization for economic cooperation and development (2014), which states that indirect taxes and levies that mainly affect tourism-related activities and are considered as one of the main elements of helping to generate tax revenue, finance environmental protection and public investment, and develop infrastructure to improve the management of the impact of tourism in sensitive areas. exit fees are not specific to iran, and all countries around the world charge this fee from tourists who want to leave the country. 3. methodologythe present study is of a research-analytical type and from a methodological perspective, the research was conducted based on the &library-documentary research& method. in the first stage, based on the results of a library study on theoretical foundations and research background, the initial framework of the factors inhibiting and enhancing foreign travel in iran was identified, focusing on exit fees by using the ardl method. then, the evaluation was carried out using the results of the ardl method. the data period studied is from 1400-1385 and the study population is iran. the variables studied in the present study are the logarithm of the number of foreign trips in terms of the number of passengers (lnpt), the logarithm of gross domestic product per capita (ln gdpt), the logarithm of the exchange rate (ln exrt), the logarithm of the inflation rate (ln inft), and the logarithm of visa costs and exit fees (ln levt), and the relevant data