پیش‌بینی نرخ بازگشت تماشاگران سینما براساس چهارچوب a5 سفر مشتری

سینما به‌عنوان یک محصول فرهنگی هنری نقش بسزایی در زمینۀ فرهنگ‌سازی و پرکردن اوقات فراغت افراد جامعه دارد. مسئلۀ اصلی پژوهش شناسایی نقاط تماس مراحل پنج‌گانۀ (آگاهی، جذب، پرسش، اقدام و حمایت) تاثیرگذار در سفر مشتریان به سینماست که در پیش‌بینی نرخ بازگشت تماشاگران سینما تاثیرگذار است. در گام اول، با استفاده از روش تحلیل محتوا، 27 نقطه به‌عنوان نقاط تماس تماشاگران سینما استخراج و در چهارچوبa5 جای‌گذاری شد و پرسش‌نامۀ پژوهش طراحی شد که پایایی و روایی آن به‌ترتیب با استفاده از آلفای کرونباخ و تحلیل عاملی تاییدی تایید شد. در گام دوم، به‌منظور پیش‌بینی نرخ بازگشت تماشاگران سینما از مدل شبکۀ عصبی مصنوعی استفاده شد. بدین‌منظور، تعداد 450 پرسش‌نامه به‌صورت تصادفی در بین تماشاگران بزرگ‌سا‌ل سینما در شهر گرگان توزیع شد که 421 پرسش‌نامه قابل استفاده تشخیص داده شد. به‌کارگیری شبکۀ عصبی نشان داد که با استفاده از نقاط تماس شناسایی‌شده مبتنی‌بر چهارچوب a5 در سفر مشتری، می‌توان نرخ بازگشت تماشاگران سینما را با دقت 921/0 پیش‌بینی کرد. نتایج تحلیل حساسیت نشان دادند که در مراحل پنج‌گانۀ آگاهی (تبلیغات مجازی)، جذب (بنر تبلیغاتی فیلم)، پرسش (نظرات سایر شرکت‌کننده‌ها)، اقدام (نوع برخورد پرسنل) و حمایت (خرید مجدد) به‌منزلۀ بهترین نقاط پیش‌بینی‌کنندۀ رفتار مصرف‌کننده در سفر خرید سینما هستند. همچنین نتایج نشان دادند نقشۀ سفر تماشاگران سینما پیچیده، به‌شدت حساس، مارپیچ و پیوسته است که در آن، مشتریان نقاط تماس متفاوتی را لمس می‌کنند که می‌تواند نرخ بازگشت آن‌ها را تحت‌تاثیر قرار دهد.

predicting moviegoer return rates based on the a5 framework of the customer journey

as a cultural-artistic product, cinema plays a significant role in creating culture and filling the free time of people in society. the main problem of the research is to identify the contact points of the 5 stages (awareness, attraction, question, action, and support) affecting the customers’ trip to the cinema, which can be effective in predicting the return rate of moviegoers. in the first step, using the content analysis method, 27 points were extracted as the contact points of moviegoers and placed in the 5a framework, and a research questionnaire was designed, the reliability and validity of which were confirmed using cronbach’s alpha and confirmatory factor analysis, respectively. in the second step, the artificial neural network model was used to predict the return rate of moviegoers. for this purpose, 450 questionnaires were randomly distributed among adult moviegoers in gorgan city, of which 421 questionnaires were found to be usable. the application of neural networks showed that by using the identified contact points based on the 5a framework in the customer journey, the return rate of moviegoers can be predicted with an accuracy of 0.921. the results of the sensitivity analysis showed that the five stages of awareness (virtual advertisements), attraction (film advertising banner), question (opinions of other participants), action (type of personnel treatment), and support (repurchase) as the best predictors of consumer behavior. the results showed that the journey map of moviegoers is complex, highly sensitive, spiral, and continuous, where different touch points are touched by customers, which can affect their return rate.1. introductionas a cultural-artistic product, cinema plays a significant role in creating culture and filling the free time of people in society. examining the purchase behavior of cinema industry consumers is important for several reasons: 1- cinema is one of the main options for spending leisure time of many people in the society, so knowing the purchasing behavior of cinema consumers will be important for its development and expansion. on the other hand, leisure can have a positive effect on people’s living conditions and enjoyment of life. 2- one of the newest and at the same time popular branches of art for spending free time, which is also known as the seventh art, is cinema, which has gained a special and influential place among the cultural and artistic works among different sections of the society in our country. the issue increases the need to know more about this market, especially from the point of view of consumers.2. literature review today, one of the key goals of organizations is to create and manage customer experience (lemon verhoef, 2016). this map identifies the company’s most important customer touch points in each target market, shows the different decision paths taken by these audiences, and enables the marketer to measure the overall value of each touch point (berman, 2020). the mapping process identifies weaknesses in a company’s marketing strategy by comparing actual versus desired sequencing across devices (pc and smartphone), departments (sales and customer service), and channels (web and store) (berman, 2020). one of the fields whose customers and consumers have received less attention in past researches is the cultural field, especially cinema. in the present research, it was tried to identify the contact points that the moviegoers show during their shopping trip to the cinema, from the time they are aware of the screening of a movie to their behavior after watching the movie and then based on these contact points, she predicted the rate of their return to the cinema. according to the mentioned cases, the current research seeks to answer the following questions in two successive and interconnected qualitative and quantitative phases: 1- what contact points do moviegoers touch during their shopping trip to the cinema? 2- based on the identified contact points, how accurately can the return rate of moviegoers be predicted? 3-which one of the identified contact points has a greater effect on increasing the accuracy of the predictive model and the customer return rate to the cinema?3. methodology the current research is descriptive-analytical and in the form of cross-sectional studies. in order to fulfill the objectives and answer the questions of this study, a mixed research method was used. this research is of an exploratory type, which includes two related parts: in the first step of the research, through in-depth semi-structured interviews, the customer journey map when using the cinema was drawn based on the 5 a framework. in the second step of the research, in order to analyze the statistical population, artificial neural network predictive methods were used in data mining. the statistical population of the research in the qualitative part included adult viewers who had the experience of watching a movie in the cinema at least once in the last 6 months. content analysis and theoretical sampling method were used to collect data in the qualitative stage, and a total of 15 interviews were conducted until theoretical saturation was reached. the statistical population of the research in the quantitative part was the adult audience in three cinemas in gorgan city. due to the unlimited population of the research, the formula of the unlimited population was used to determine the sample size, and the minimum sample size was 384. a random sample was distributed in the cinema halls of gorgan city, 421 of which were found to be usable after the initial review, and the analysis was done on them. in order to collect data, a questionnaire was used, the first part of the questionnaire was related to demographic information of the respondents, gender, marital status, income, education and age. in the second part, customer journey stages were measured based on the 5a framework. in order to determine the reliability of the used tool, cronbach’s alpha was used, and the results indicate that the current questionnaire has adequate reliability, so that the categories of the 5a framework have reliability of 0.812, 0.770, 0.699, and 805, respectively. 0.821 and the reliability of the whole questionnaire is 0.861. in order to check the validity of the questionnaire, confirmatory factor analysis was used. according to the significant number related to the research questions, which have a number higher than 1.96, it can be concluded that all the questions have the necessary validity to measure the related variable. in order to identify the audience’s points of contact with the cinema during their journey, based on the 5a framework, interview questions were asked to the audience in the form of a semi-structured interview.