عوامل موثر در انتخاب ایران به‌عنوانِ مقصد گردشگری: کاربرد مدل‌یابی معادلات ساختاری

ایران با وجود کسب رتبۀ اول ارزان‌‌ترین مقصد گردشگری، رتبه 10 میراث جهانی و رتبه 26 زیباترین کشورهای جهان، در سال 2019 فقط توانسته 0.62 درصد تعداد گردشگران ورودی جهان و 0.53 درصد مبلغی را که گردشگران بین‌‌المللی هزینه کرده‌اند جذب کند. همچنین، برای دستیابی به هدف تعیین‌شده در برنامۀ هفتم توسعۀ کشور، رشد سالانه حدود 30 درصدی ورود گردشگر بین‌‌المللی به کشور ضروری است. با هدف شناسایی معیارهای موثر، تبیین مدل معادلات ساختاری جذب گردشگران خارجی و بررسی تفاوت وضعیت موجود با وضعیت مورد انتظار گردشگران، برای گردآوری نظرات گردشگران خارجی که در پروازهای خروجی از کشور بودند (نمونۀ در دسترس) از پرسش‌نامه‌ای که پژوهشگران طراحی کرده‌اند استفاده شد. داده‌‌های حاصل از نظرات 143 نفر تحلیلِ عاملی شد و ده معیار که با کنترل آن‌ها می‌توان 60 درصد خواسته‌های گردشگران را برآورده کرد شناسایی شد. سپس مدل معادلات ساختاری ارتباط بین معیارها، طراحی و برازش شد. درنهایت تحلیلِ شکاف میان وضعیت مطلوب (خواسته‌‌ها) و وضعیت موجود (واقعی) معیارهای شناسایی‌شده انجام و مشخص شد که بین وضعیت مطلوب و وضعیت موجود هفت معیار پاکیزگی محیط شهری و اماکن، امکانات و تسهیلات گردشگری، امنیت، کیفیت اقامتگاه‌‌ها، کیفیت خدمات حمل‌‌ونقل، توجه به مسائل محیط زیستی و سیاست‌گذاری‌های دولت تفاوت معنی‌‌دار وجود دارد و وضعیت فعلی این معیارها پایین‌‌تر از حد مورد انتظار گردشگران خارجی است. مدل معادلات ساختاری تبیین‌شده نیز با اطمینان 99 درصد بیانگر رابطۀ معنی‌‌دار مستقیم و اثر قوی معیارهای شناسایی‌شده با/ بر انتخاب ایران به‌عنوانِ مقصد گردشگران خارجی است.

factors affecting the selection of iran as a tourist destination: using structural equation modeling

iran is ranked first as the cheapest tourist destination, 10th as world heritage, and the 26th most beautiful country in the world. however, it has attracted only 0.62 percent of tourist arrivals and 0.53 percent of the amount spent by international tourists in 2019. also, an annual growth of about 30 percent in tourist arrivals is necessary to achieve the goal set in the 7th development plan of iri. for extracting the effective criteria, proposing the structural equation model for tourist attraction, and examining the difference between the existing and the desired states of the identified criteria, a questionnaire was used to collect the opinions of tourists who were on flights leaving iran after visiting (convenience sampling). the data obtained from 143 questionnaires was analyzed using the factor analysis method. ten criteria were identified as a result. controlling these ten criteria leads to fulfilling 60 percent of tourists’ desires. then, the structural equation model of the relationship between the criteria was designed and fitted using structural equation modeling. finally, a gap analysis was performed. it was found that there is a significant difference between the desired and the existing states of seven out of ten criteria, and the existing state of these seven criteria is lower than expected (desired) by foreign tourists. with 99 percent confidence, the fitted model shows the direct significant relationship and the strong effect of the identified criteria with/on the selection of iran as a tourist destination.1. introductionthe international tourism industry has always had a growing trend during the decade ending in november 2019. according to the wto report published in 2020, this industry generated 3,300 billion dollars in tourism direct gross domestic product (tdgdp) in 2019. according to the report of the world economic forum (2019), in 2018, despite winning first place in price competitiveness (the cheapest tourist destination), iran obtained 89th place in travel and tourism competitiveness among the 140 countries surveyed. the number of tourists who arrived in iran in 2019 was about 9.107 million people (2.5 percent of all tourists who arrived in asia and the pacific), and about 7.721 billion dollars was spent by them (1.75 percent of the total amount spent in asian and pacific countries). that is, the amount spent by tourists in iran during 2019 was about 0.53 percent of the total amount spent globally. this situation has occurred for iran, while according to bagley bloom’s (2022) report in forbes magazine, iran has been ranked 26th among the 50 most beautiful countries in the world. in addition, according to the 2023 statistics, iran has 27 cultural works registered with the united nations educational, scientific and cultural organization (unesco) and ranks 10th in the world. in addition, according to article no. 82 of the 7th national development plan act, one of the quantitative goals of the program is that the number of tourists entering the country in 2028 will reach 15 million people. therefore, it is required to achieve a 30 percent annual growth in international tourist arrivals from 2023 to 2028. so, conducting new customer-oriented research to identify the needs and desires of tourists and the difference between the current situation and the desired situation of tourists and to explain the model of factors affecting the choice of iran as a tourist destination to solve the existing problems and achieve the set goals it is necessary for the country’s tourism sector.2. literature reviewmotivating tourists to welcome a tourist destination requires adequate and appropriate knowledge of tourists, their needs and desires, and trying to fulfill those needs and desires. identifying the factors affecting the choice of destination can affect choosing the target market and meeting the needs and desires of tourists. fulfilling the needs and desires of tourists can be an efficient advertisement of the tourist destination too. there is a difference between &want/desire& and &need.& the need is a feeling of conscious deprivation; it is what the customer needs to be satisfied. but want/desire is a need influenced by culture, society, and individual personality. this is momentous in modern marketing because any market (business) can satisfy customer needs like the competitors, but it may not be able to fulfill the want/desire as well as competitors meet. customer expectations are constantly changing due to the rapid changes in the business environment and increased competition, and due to the expansion of markets, the development of technology, and the multitude of customer desires, the success of businesses depends on meeting customer desires. many researchers and international institutions, including the world economic forum, have identified criteria and indicators related to the competitiveness of travel and tourism and various and numerous criteria related to the desires, needs, and satisfaction of tourists. some 23 previous research related to the issue were studied, and more than 60 criteria were extracted. according to the wide range of criteria extracted, to achieve an appropriate number of the most important criteria, 27 that were used most frequently in previous research or seemed more important were chosen, summarized, and combined. the selected criteria are natural attractions, urban attractiveness, historical attractions, cultural attractions, the cost of tourist services (prices), tourism facilities, accommodations quality, food and restaurant quality, shopping quality, transportation services quality, safety, weather quality, the speed of service delivery (timely delivery), hospitality and favorable treatment of tourists, experienced and specialized human resources, english language proficiency of the host country’s people, cleanliness of the urban environment and places, attention toward environmental issues (being green), health and hygiene, government policies, planning and management, communication infrastructure and facilities, banking and electronic infrastructure, tourism destination advertising and branding, political situation, legality and crime management of the country, and security.3. methodologythis research is an applied research with an exploratory nature and its survey strategy. exploratory factor analysis was done on the data collected through the questionnaire. the purpose of the study is to identify the needs and desires of the participants to explain the structural equations model of the factors affecting the choice of iran as a tourist destination and to analyze the gap between the actual conditions and the expected conditions of foreign tourists. to conduct the research, theoretical and empirical resources were first studied and analyzed. then, research criteria were extracted, and a questionnaire was designed to collect data. the statistical population was 143 tourists who visited iran, were present on the flight out of the country, and completed the questionnaire during the flight. convenience sampling, one of the non-probability sampling methods, was used, and the data was collected during several flights in the winter and spring of 2023. to ensure the tool’s validity and also to confirm the factors identified in the theoretical studies stage, determine factor loadings, and prioritize the importance of factors, exploratory factor analysis, and gap analysis were performed using ibm spss statistics version 26. also, smartpls version 4.0.8.4 was used to explain the structural equation model of factors affecting the choice of iran as a tourist destination.4. resultsfactor analysis was performed using the dimension reduction section of spss software and according to the instructions of morgan et al. (2016). in the first stage, some criteria had weak factor loadings. therefore, the criteria with factor loadings less than 0.5 were removed one by one and repositioned, and the factor analysis was repeated. in addition, the reliability/internal consistency of the criteria groups was also evaluated. after re-performing factor analysis, ten criteria were obtained, which were categorized under four dimensions (construct/factor). destination image, including cleanliness of the urban environment and places, tourism facilities, and security; health and safety, including accommodations quality, health and hygiene, and transportation services quality; quality and health of food and environment, including food and restaurant quality, attention toward environmental issues (being green); destination attraction, including government policies (visa facilities, etc.), and natural attractions. the lowest factor loading at this stage is 0.526, which indicates the existence of acceptable strong loadings. the lowest acceptable correlation is related to the relationship between the cleanliness of the urban environment and places and the attention to environmental issues (0.395). the highest correlation is related to the relationship between the cleanliness of the urban environment and places and tourism facilities (0.694). also, the determinant value (0.032) shows that there is no collinearity or it is acceptable. the value of the kaiser-meyer-olkin (kmo) sampling adequacy criterion is 0.689, and the results of bartlett’s test of sphericity, respectively, for the approximate value of chi-square, degree of freedom, and sig. are equivalent to 437.065, 45 and smaller than 0.001. the sig. value smaller than 0.05 means the data is acceptable for factor analysis. the explained variance percentage of each of the four sub-indices (construct/factor) is 20.040, 15.602, 13.763, 10.689, and its cumulative percentage is 60.094. it shows that these four factors describe 60 percent of the fluctuations in ten criteria. in other words, it can be concluded that by controlling these factors, it will be possible to meet 60 percent of tourists’ desires. the structural equation model analysis shows a significant direct relationship at the 0.01 level between the affecting factors and destination selection. also, according to the effect size, t, and p values, it can be said with 99 percent certainty that there is a significant direct relationship and strong impact between the defined sub-indices (identified criteria) and the destination selection.5. conclusionsome 27 criteria were identified based on the literature review, and a questionnaire was designed to achieve the research goals. the questionnaire was distributed among foreign tourists on flights out of the country. the collected data was analyzed using factor analysis. finally, ten criteria include cleanliness of the urban environment and places, tourism facilities, security, accommodations quality, health and hygiene, transportation services quality, food and restaurant quality, attention toward environmental issues (being green), government policies (visa facilities, etc.), and natural attractions were identified as the most important criteria. the factor analysis results show that 60 percent of tourists’ desires can be fulfilled by controlling these ten criteria. the structural equation model analysis shows a significant relationship between the identified criteria and destination selection and the strong effect of the criteria on destination selection. as the result of the structural equation model analysis, it can be said that at the 1% significance level, there is a direct association and strong impact between the defined sub-indices (identified criteria) and the choice of destination. the gap analysis shows no significant difference between the desired state (desires) and the existing state (reality) of the three criteria of health and hygiene, food and restaurant quality, and natural attractions. however, there is a significant difference between the desired state and the existing state of seven other criteria, and the existing state of these criteria is lower than the expected level of tourists. as the final result of the research, at the 1% significance level (99 percent confidence), the ten identified criteria have a direct association and strong influence on destination selection, and 60 percent of tourists’ desires can be fulfilled by controlling these ten criteria.