integrated resource management under climate change: a strategy framework for an arid central iranian watershed

The cop 28 summit s emphasis on decarbonizing global energy infrastructure, in alignment with the paris agreement s 1.5°c target, underscores the urgent need to address climate change for sustainable development. climate change exacerbates drought and water scarcity, impeding progress toward sdgs related to food, water, and energy. recognizing the interconnections between these sectors is crucial for effective strategy development. this study uses a scenario analysis framework with the open source energy modeling system (osemosys) to evaluate the impacts of various pathways on integrated water, energy, food, and land resource management in the zayandeh rud watershed of central iran. scenario 1 (baseline) examines current population and sectoral growth trends and their implications on water, energy, and agriculture. scenario 2 (emissions reduction) investigates a 30% emissions reduction target and its effects on the energy sector s transformation. the results emphasize the need for an integrated approach. the emissions reduction scenario shows the potential for renewable energy expansion and the strategic role of fossil fuel power plants with carbon capture technologies. sensitivity analysis highlights the significant impact of energy commodity pricing on renewable energy deployment. these insights stress the importance of comprehensive, nexus-based strategies that balance economic, environmental, and social considerations for sustainable resource management amidst climate change. policymakers can use these findings to develop resilient and integrated watershed management plans.