اثر نااطمینانی نرخ ارز و نرخ بهره بر رشد و توسعه اقتصادی کشورهای منتخب اسلامی بر اساس رویکرد سیستم معادلات هم زمان

هدف:هدف تحقیق حاضر بررسی اثرات نااطمینانی نرخ ارز و نرخ بهره بر رشد و توسعه اقتصادی در منتخب کشورهای اسلامی است.روش‌شناسی پژوهش : تحقیق حاضر به لحاظ محتوا تحلیلی و توصیفی و به لحاظ هدف، کاربردی است. اطلاعات محتوایی حاصل از تحقیق حاضر با استفاده از روش اسنادی – کتابخانه‌ای و داده‌های آماری مربوط به تحقیق با استفاده از وب‌سایت‌های آماری جهانی استخراج شده‌اند. مدل‌های مورد استفاده در این مطالعه با استفاده از داده‌های سالانه 40 کشور منتخب اسلامی برای دوره زمانی 2010-2021 به روش سیستم معادلات هم‌زمان برآورد شده است. به‌منظور محاسبه شاخص نااطمینانی نرخ ارز و نرخ بهره نیز از روش شبکه عصبی بازگشتی استفاده شده .یافته‌ها : نتایج تحقیق نشان داد که نااطمینانی نرخ ارز و نرخ بهره بر رشد اقتصادی کشورهای مورد بررسی تاثیر منفی داشته . همچنین مشاهده شد نااطمینانی نرخ ارز و نرخ بهره بر توسعه اقتصادی کشورهای مورد بررسی تاثیر منفی داشته است.اصالت / ارزش‌افزوده علمی: اثرات نااطمینانی نرخ ارز و نااطمینانی نرخ بهره بر رشد و توسعه اقتصادی از جمله مباحث اقتصادی است که همچنان با خلا مطالعاتی روبرو است همچنین در نتیجه‌گیری ضمنی: بر همین اساس پیشنهاد می‌شود سیاست‌گذاران کلان اقتصادی در بخش پولی، مالی و ارزی، پیامدهای منفی نااطمینانی نرخ ارز و نرخ بهره بر سطح رشد و توسعه اقتصادی کشورها را نیز مدنظر داشته باشند تا به‌واسطه کنترل این نوسانات، از مسیر رشد و توسعه بلندمدت و برنامه‌ریزی‌شده خود منحرف نشوند

the impact of exchange rate and interest rate uncertainty on economic growth and development in selected islamic countries based on a simultaneous equations system approach

introduction solving the economic problems of societies, especially in developing countries, is not achievable solely through economic growth; rather, it requires economic development accompanied by structural and institutional changes. economic growth is limited to quantitative improvements in indicators, while economic development involves a fundamental transformation in human, productive, and social capacities. among the key variables influencing the process of economic growth and development are the exchange rate and interest rate. fluctuations or improper policies regarding these variables can lead to economic instability and disrupt the development path.in developing islamic countries, challenges such as inappropriate choice of the exchange rate regime, unstable monetary and fiscal policies, and consequently uncertainty in exchange and interest rates have hindered investment attraction and the achievement of sustainable development. this study aims to analyze the impact of uncertainty in exchange and interest rates on the economic growth and development of selected islamic countries and seeks to identify the factors contributing to the instability of these variables and their effects on the macroeconomic structure.the article continues with a review of the theoretical foundations and previous research, followed by an introduction to the research methodology and the models used. subsequent sections present data analysis and, finally, the results and policy recommendations. theoretical foundations2-1. the effect of exchange rate and interest rate uncertainty on economic growth exchange rates and interest rates have received less attention in traditional growth theories; however, in open economies, the exchange rate plays a crucial role in boosting exports and shaping production. fluctuations in exchange and interest rates can increase investment risk and affect economic growth. some studies emphasize that exchange rate policies should be short-term and adjustable to prevent harm to international reserves. interest rates also have a strategic role in growth through better capital allocation. the impact of fluctuations in these two rates on economic growth is complex and depends on the level of development and the financial structure of countries. in some cases, such fluctuations may enhance the economy's capacity to adjust to shocks but can also reduce exports and investment.2-2. the effect of exchange rate and interest rate uncertainty on economic development uncertainty in exchange and interest rates has wide-ranging effects on economic and social variables such as profit rates, income distribution, and poverty, and is recognized as a significant barrier to growth in developing countries. this uncertainty leads to investment delays and increased financing costs, which reduce economic growth. however, under certain conditions, uncertainty can motivate investment and create new opportunities. this issue is especially important in islamic and non-islamic countries facing economic constraints, and the present study investigates the significant negative impact of exchange rate and interest rate uncertainty on economic growth and development.research backgroundnumerous studies have examined the impact of exchange rates and interest rates on economic growth. abdolrahimian and kateb (2019) found an inverse relationship between exchange rate volatility and gdp in iran. nazemi et al. (2020) showed that positive exchange rate shocks reduce gdp, while negative shocks increase it. khatayi and mousavi nik (2019) studied the effect of exchange rate fluctuations based on the level of financial development and found negative impacts at low financial development levels and positive effects at higher levels. lotfali pour and karimi alvijeh (2019) investigated the relationship