تبیین تحولات ساختار فضایی منطقه کلان‌ شهری تهران با تاکید بر قیمت مسکن

افزایش بی‌ رویه قیمت زمین و مسکن در چند دهه اخیر منجر به واگرایی خیل مهاجرین نسبت به شهر تهران و در مقابل توجه به پیرامون مرکز منطقه کلان‌شهری تهران شده است. پژوهش حاضر درصدد مطالعه فرآیند تکوین ساختار فضایی منطقه کلان‌شهری تهران با توجه به تحولات کمی قیمت مسکن در رویکرد ریخت شناسانه است. روش پژوهش توصیفی- تحلیلی است. برای تحلیل‌های آمار فضایی از نرم‌افزارهای arc gis و geoda استفاده شده است. متغیرهای تراکم جمعیت و اشتغال به عنوان متغیر وابسته و فاصله از مرکز، فاصله از راه‌های اصلی و قیمت مسکن به عنوان متغیر مستقل استفاده شده‌اند و اثرات این متغیرها با آزمون رگرسیون وزنی جغرافیایی (gwr) سنجیده شده است. مطابق یافته‌ها اثرات راه‌های اصلی بر توزیع تراکم جمعیت از 34 درصد در سال 85 به 33 درصد در سال 95 و اثرات فاصله از راه بر تراکم اشتغال از 37 درصد به عدد 33.3 درصد در سال 95 رسیده که روند کاهشی را طی می‌کند. اثر فاصله از مرکز بر تراکم جمعیت از 18.8 درصد در سال 85 به عدد 26.7 درصد در سال 95 رسیده است، بدین معنی که شهرهای نزدیک به شهر تهران افزایش جمعیت بیشتری را تجربه کرده‌اند. قیمت مسکن و اثرات آن بر تراکم جمعیت از 23 درصد در سال 85 به 27 درصد در سال 95 رسیده است. با توجه به ضریب r2 می‌توان گفت اثرات افزایش قیمت مسکن در گذر زمان بر پراکنش فضایی جمعیت و اشتغال نقشی فزآینده دارد و سهم مهمی در تغییرات ساختار فضایی منطقه کلانشهری تهران گذاشته است.

explanation of spatial structure changes of tehran metropolitan region with emphasis on housing prices

spatial structure is the result of historical and physical processes and changing economic, social and political conditions. this structure is generally considered in two dimensions, population and employment, the first one describes the residence system and the second one describes the activity structure. the sudden and leaping increase in housing prices and, as a result, rents in tehran has been an important factor for the reversal of the migration process. in fact, following the convergence of a huge number of immigrants towards tehran and the excessive increase in the price of land and housing in another period of time, it has led to the divergence of the number of immigrants towards the city of tehran and in contrast to the pathological attention to the surrounding space of this national city. according to previous studies in the analysis of the spatial structure of metropolitan areas, the impact of housing developments as a key factor in attracting and repelling the population has not received enough attention, so that in the analysis of the process of suburbanization and displacement, only the qualitative descriptions of housing are presented as an influencing factor; while to answer the research questions, methods that have taken on a spatial dimension have been used. therefore, the current research aims to study the process of development and formation of the spatial structure of the metropolitan area of tehran with regard to quantitative changes in housing prices in a morphological approach.methodologythe research method is descriptive-analytical according to the nature of the study. the nature of the methods used is the type of methods and analyzes of spatial statistics. the variables of population density and employment are used as dependent variables and distance from the center, distance from main roads and housing price are also used as independent variables. in order to measure the spatial analysis of population density and employment, kernel density tests, hot and cold clusters, and moran’s test were used. then, to perform spatial statistics on the variables, standardization was first applied based on zero to one, and finally, geographic weighted regression (gwr) was used to measure the effects of independent variables on dependent variables.results and discussionaccording to the regression of the spatial pattern of housing prices, it can be said that the level of housing price increases over time has an increasing role in the spatial distribution of the population, so that this number has reached 27% in 2015, from 23% in 2015, and it is an important contribution to the change the spatial structure of the metropolitan area will have. the density of employment tends towards the areas with low and medium average housing prices, and in terms of spatial distribution, the density of employed people in the metropolitan area of tehran tends to the southern areas of the capital and the cities close to it. the independent variable of road distance infers 33% of the dependent variable of population density and is considered one of the important factors of population settlement in the spatial structure of the metropolitan area.