microgrids and the stability of electric power systems – the case of bosnia and herzegovina

The increasing participation of ress in electricity generation has increased the complexity of the required or capacity as a basis for the stability and resilience of epss. the variability of electricity generation in ppps, wpps and shpps affects the variability of the required reserve of electricity generation in the eps. therefore, the probability tool, i.e., with statistics and estimates, best answers the question of how much and where or should be available in the eps, given the uncertainties in the production of electricity from ress in mgs and the uncertainties of their electrical load. the question of the or in the eps was investigated by bayesian statistics, which links the simultaneous occurrence of a random variable (available electricity generation of ress in mgs) with a statistical variable (electrical load power in mgs). the result of the proposed algorithm is the probability of the deficit or surplus of available energy in the form of active and reactive electric power in mgs, and the consequence of this probability is the probability of the need and degree of engagement of the or using nres (thermal and hydroelectric power stations). the algorithm is in simulation applied to the system of bh, and its implementation in daily system management is the subject of future work.