a combined ahp-promethee approach for intelligent risk prediction of leak in a storage tank

This paper describes the use of the analytic hierarchy process (ahp) and preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation (promethee) method for predicting the risk of leakage in a storage tank. this is the first time ahp and promethee have been used in this way. important decisions about day to day operations are continually made in a petroleum environment. storage tanks in refineries contain large volumes of flammable and hazardous liquids. decision processes need to evaluate and select alternatives with a higher probability of resulting in a hazard, among many different alternatives. the new model described in this paper will aid decision-makers to predict which tank is likely to develop a leak and determine what criteria (source of risk) could result in a leak. although the case study deals with a specific risk prediction problem, the combination of ahp and promethee methods can be applied to other decision problems.