تحلیل و بررسی عوامل کلیدی موثر بر مدیریت کلان شهرها با رویکرد آینده پژوهی (نمونه موردی: شهر کرمانشاه)

امروزه ﺑﺎ ﭘﯿﺸﺮﻓﺖ ﻋﻠﻢ و ﻓﻨﺎوری و ﺳﺮﻋﺖ وﻗﻮع ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات، ﻧﯿﺎز ﺑﻪ ﻃﺮح و ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ راﻫﺒﺮدی در ﺳﻄﻮح ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ اﺣﺴﺎس ﻣﯽﺷﻮد. از اﯾﻦ رو ﺟﻮاﻣﻊ ﺷﻬﺮی ﺑﻪ ﺗﻔﮑﺮی اﺳﺘﺮاﺗﮋﯾﮏ و آﯾﻨﺪهﻧﮕﺮ در ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪرﯾﺰی و ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ و ﺗﺤﻮل ﺷﻬﺮﻫﺎ ﻧﯿﺎزﻣﻨﺪ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ. ﻫﺪف ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ، ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ و ﭘﯿﺸﺮانﻫﺎی ﮐﻠﯿﺪی ﻣﺆﺛﺮ در ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﮐﻠﺎنﺷﻬﺮ ﮐﺮﻣﺎﻧﺸﺎه و ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ رواﺑﻂ ﺑﯿﻦ اﯾﻦ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﺑﺎ روﯾﮑﺮد آﯾﻨﺪهﻧﮕﺎری و ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﮐﺮدن ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎی ﻣﺤﺘﻤﻞ و ﻣﻄﻠﻮب اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺪﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر، اﺑﺘﺪا ﺑﺎ ﻃﺮاﺣﯽ ﭘﺮﺳﺸﻨﺎﻣﻪ، 34 ﻋﺎﻣﻞ و ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻣﻮﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﮐﻠﺎنﺷﻬﺮ ﮐﺮﻣﺎﻧﺸﺎه در اﺑﻌﺎد ﭘﻨﺞﮔﺎﻧﻪ: ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪرﯾﺰی و ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺘﯽ؛ ﮐﺎﻟﺒﺪی و ﻓﻀﺎﯾﯽ؛ ﺳﺎزوﮐﺎرﻫﺎی ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ ﻣﺎﻟﯽ؛ زﯾﺴﺖﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ؛ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﯽ، اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ و ﻓﺮﻫﻨﮕﯽ اﺳﺘﺨﺮاج ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ. در ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﺗﮑﻨﯿﮏ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮات ﻣﺘﻘﺎﺑﻞ )روش ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎری( ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎ در ﻣﺤﯿﻂ ﻧﺮماﻓﺰارmic mac اﻣﺘﯿﺎزدﻫﯽ و ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺷﺪﻧﺪ. در اﯾﻦ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ اﻣﺘﯿﺎز ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮﮔﺬاری و ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮﭘﺬﯾﺮی، ﻣﻬﻤﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﭘﯿﺸﺮان و ﮐﻠﯿﺪی ﻣﻮﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﺷﻬﺮ ﮐﺮﻣﺎﻧﺸﺎه اﻧﺘﺨﺎب ﮔﺮدﯾﺪﻧﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ رﺗﺒﻪﺑﻨﺪی ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎ و ﭘﯿﺸﺮانﻫﺎی ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎی: ﻣﺴﺌﻮﻟﯿﺖ ﭘﺬﯾﺮی ﻣﺪﯾﺮان و ﻣﺴﺌﻮﻟﺎن ﺷﻬﺮی؛ ﻣﺸﺎرﮐﺖ دادن ﻣﺮدم در ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪرﯾﺰی، ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢﺳﺎزی و ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢﮔﯿﺮی؛ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻋﺎدﻟﺎﻧﻪ اﻣﮑﺎﻧﺎت ﺷﻬﺮی؛ ﺑﻬﺮهﮔﯿﺮی از ﻓﻨﺎوریﻫﺎی ﻧﻮﯾﻦ؛ ﻃﺮحﻫﺎی ﺳﺎﻣﺎﻧﺪﻫﯽ، ﺑﻬﺴﺎزی و ﻧﻮﺳﺎزی ﺑﺎﻓﺖ ﻓﺮﺳﻮده و ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻧﯿﺮوی اﻧﺴﺎﻧﯽ ﻣﺘﺨﺼﺺ، ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﻣﻬﻤﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎ اﻧﺘﺨﺎب و ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮﯾﻦ اﻣﺘﯿﺎز را ﮐﺴﺐ ﮐﺮدهاﻧﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻧﻮﯾﺴﯽ وﯾﺰارد ﻧﺸﺎن داده اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺗﻌﺪاد 2 ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮی ﻗﻮی، 12 ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮی ﺑﺎورﮐﺮدﻧﯽ و 41 ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮی ﺿﻌﯿﻒ ﺑﺮای ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﮐﻠﺎنﺷﻬﺮ ﮐﺮﻣﺎﻧﺸﺎه وﺟﻮد دارد.

identifying key factors affecting on big city governance with a foresight approach (case study: kermanshah)

today, with the advancement of science and technology and the speed of change, there is a need for strategic plans and programs at different levels. therefore, urban communities need strategic and forward-looking thinking in the planning and management system for the development and transformation of cities. the aim of this research is to identify the, and analyze the relationships between these factors with a foresight approach and identify and analyze possible and desirable scenarios effective in the kermanshah big city governance. to collect the required data, 34 factors and variables influencing on the kermanshah big city in the five dimensions including planning and administration; physical and spatial; financing mechanisms; environmental and political, social and cultural. were extracted by designing a researcher-made questionnaire. in the next step, using the mutual effects technique (structural analysis method), the variables were scored and analyzed in the mic mac software environment. finally, the drivers and key factors of urban planning were selected according to the impact score. the ranking results of variables and drivers effective in the development of the kermanshah big city have shown that the variables: responsibility of urban administration; involving people in planning, decision-making and decision-making; fair distribution of urban facilities; utilization of new technologies; plans for organizing, improving and renovation urban decay, and use of specialized human resources are the 6 variables that have gained the most points. wizard scenario writing results have shown that there are 2 strong scenarios, 12 believable scenarios and 41 weak scenarios for the development of kermanshah province.