اقتصادسنجی اثرات گردشگری بر تاب‌آوری کالبدی روستاهای هدف گردشگری (مطالعه موردی: شهرستان ماهنشان)

بدین جهت در این مطالعه هدف تحلیل اثرات گردشگری بر تاب‌آوری سکونتگاه‌های روستایی است چراکه رونق و توسعه گردشگری در این مناطق روستایی باعث تغییرات کالبدی در سطح روستا گردشگرپذیر می‌شود؛ و این پژوهش با روش علی - معلولی به دنبال تهیه مدلی برای تبیین تاثیر گردشگری بر بهبود تاب‌آوری سکونتگاه‌های روستاهای منتخب شهرستان ماهنشان است که در پژوهش حاضر تاب‌آوری به‌عنوان متغیر وابسته و گردشگری به‌عنوان متغیر مستقل است؛ همچنین گردشگری شامل تعداد متغیرهایی از جمله سهم نسبی اشتغال مستقیم گردشگری از کل اشتغال، نرخ بازدید مجدد، نسبت نفوذ گردشگران، کسب‌وکارهای گردشگری متعلق به افراد بومی، نسبت خانوار ساکن به خانه‌های دوم، درصد اعتبارات گردشگری است. از سویی داده‌های گردآوری شده از مراکز رسمی در بازه زمانی 1375 تا 1399 هستند که با استفاده از روش رگرسیون داده‌های تابلویی (پانل) به‌وسیله نرم‌افزار آماری ایویوز ورژن 13 به تجزیه‌وتحلیل روستاهای موردنظر پرداخته شده است. نتایج پژوهش نشان می‌دهد گردشگری دایره گسترده‌ای فرصت‌ها را در تمام ابعاد ایجاد می‌کند. تاثیر گردشگری از بین جنبه‌های مورد بررسی بر تاب‌آوری کالبدی با ضریب (69/0) است همچنین از بین هفت متغیر کلیدی و تاثیرگذار در افزایش تاب‌آوری کالبدی پنج متغیر (سهم نسبی اشتغال مستقیم گردشگری از کل اشتغال، نرخ بازدید مجدد، نسبت نفوذ گردشگران، کسب‌وکار گردشگری متعلق به افراد بومی، درصد اعتبارات گردشگری) تآثیر معنی‌داری بر تاب‌آوری کالبدی داشتند. در نتیجه باتوجه ‌به نتایج، تقویت گردشگری سبب افزایش تاب‌آوری کالبدی مناطق گردشگری می‌شود و می‌تواند کلید توسعه روستایی باشد که با افزایش مداوم جریان حضور گردشگران سبب بهبود ظرفیت انعطاف‌پذیری و استحکام بیشتر جامعه روستایی می‌شود.

econometric analysis of the impact of tourism on physical resilience of tourist-targeted villages: a case study of mahneshan county

introductiontourism has the potential to revitalize and restructure the local economy, improve quality of life, and supplement income across agricultural, handicraft, and service sectors. it also fosters social interaction, breaks rural isolation, and provides opportunities to reassess cultural heritage, natural landscapes, and open spaces—thereby reinforcing the identity of rural areas and contributing to social sustainability. moreover, by highlighting the economic value of food production, unused or abandoned buildings, traditional landscapes, and unique cultural practices, tourism can significantly influence regional resilience, particularly in villages with tourism potential. mahenshan region, located in zanjan province, is rich in natural attractions and historical sites. however, despite its significant tourism capacity, it remains relatively unknown to both domestic and international tourists, largely due to inadequate tourism infrastructure and limited promotion. failure to develop tourism in such villages may lead to socio-economic decline and threaten rural households. therefore, understanding the relationship between rural tourism development and physical resilience becomes crucial. the primary objective of this study is to investigate the impact of rural tourism development on the physical resilience of selected villages in mahneshan county. methodologythis research is classified as applied in nature and employs a cause-effect (explanatory) approach. data were collected from official records including those of the zanjan cultural heritage, handicrafts and tourism organization, the islamic revolution housing foundation, and the statistical yearbook of zanjan province. the statistical population includes eight tourism-potential villages in mahneshan county: khandaghlo, pari, alamkandi, khozjahan, qozlo, khoran, madabad, and kila, over the period 1996–2020 (1375–1399 sh). to analyze the relationship between tourism development and physical resilience, the panel regression method was applied using eviews statistical software. panel data combines cross-sectional and time-series dimensions and is especially useful for analyzing repeated observations over time across multiple units. findingsseveral key indicators were identified as influential in shaping physical resilience through rural tourism:relative share of direct tourism employment: this index reflects the proportion of employment directly attributable to tourism within total village employment. tourism-related job creation leads to new markets, shops, bazaars, and business centers. by employing local residents, tourism reduces pressure on natural resources such as water and soil, and discourages the sale or fragmentation of land. this contributes positively to physical resilience.revisit rate index: tourist return visits are influenced by attractive scenery, memorable experiences, visitor satisfaction, and a safe, low-risk environment. repeat visits tend to be shorter and less intensive than initial trips, resulting in reduced environmental degradation. additionally, revisit behavior signals the area’s health and safety, increasing attractiveness and promoting responsible use of tourist areas.ownership of tourism businesses by local residents: while tourism businesses contribute to economic growth, they often alter land use patterns—converting homes, gardens, riversides, and fields into commercial spaces. these transformations can negatively affect the physical integrity and resilience of the village landscape. discussion and conclusionusing panel regression analysis, the results reveal that certain variables have a statistically significant impact on the physical resilience of rural settlements in mahneshan county:direct tourism employment (β = +0.27) : positive correlation indicates that increased tourism-related jobs reduce reliance on less sustainable livelihoods and optimize resource usage.tourist revisit rate (β = +0.54) : high significance suggests that returning visitors place less strain on the environment while reinforcing confidence in the destination’s safety and appeal.tourist density/penetration ratio (β = -0.17) : exceeding carrying capacity causes degradation; thus, managing visitor numbers is essential.local ownership of tourism businesses (β = -0.031) : although slightly negative, this relationship shows that commercialization led by locals can disrupt traditional spatial structures.percentage of allocated tourism credits (β = +0.027) : improved financial support enhances infrastructure, making tourism more sustainable and beneficial to local economies.overnight stay percentage (β = +0.02) and resident-to-second home ratio (β = +0.027) : these indices showed weak effects, likely due to underdeveloped accommodation infrastructure and limited second-home ownership in the studied villages.