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   تحلیل پیشران های موثر بر آینده گردشگری ورزشی ایران  
   
نویسنده حسین ابراهیم صدام ,محمودی احمد ,قربانی محمدحسین
منبع آينده پژوهي ايران - 1403 - دوره : 9 - شماره : 1 - صفحه:135 -162
چکیده    ﻫﺪف: ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮی ورزﺷﯽ ﻣﯽﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﭘﯿﺸﺮانﻫﺎی ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺴﯿﺎری داﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻤﺎت ﺳﻔﺮ ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس آﻧﻬﺎ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﻣﯽﺷﻮد. ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﭘﯿﺸﺮانﻫﺎی ﻣﺆﺛﺮ آﯾﻨﺪه ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮی ورزﺷﯽ ﻣﯽﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﺑﻪ ﭘﯿﺸﺮﻓﺖ اﯾﻦ ﺣﻮزه ﮐﻤﮏ ﺷﺎﯾﺎﻧﯽ ﮐﻨﺪ. ﻟﺬا ﻫﺪف اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﭘﯿﺸﺮانﻫﺎی ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ آﯾﻨﺪه ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮی ورزﺷﯽ اﺳﺖ. روش: روش اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ آﻣﯿﺨﺘﻪ و از ﻧﻮع ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻠﯽ و اﮐﺘﺸﺎﻓﯽ اﺳﺖ و از ﻟﺤﺎظ ﻫﺪف ﺟﺰء ﭘﮋوﻫﺶﻫﺎی ﮐﺎرﺑﺮدی ﺑﻪ ﺷﻤﺎر ﻣﯽآﯾﺪ. ﻣﺸﺎرﮐﺖﮐﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎن در اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﺧﺒﺮﮔﺎن و اﻓﺮاد ﻣﺠﺮب در ﺣﻮزه ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮی ورزﺷﯽ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ راﻫﻨﻤﺎﯾﺎن ﺗﻮرﻫﺎی ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮی ورزﺷﯽ، ﮐﺎرﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎن ﺣﻮزه ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮی ورزﺷﯽ و ﻣﺪﯾﺮان ارﺷﺪ ﺳﺎزﻣﺎنﻫﺎی ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﺎ ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮی و اﺳﺘﺎدان ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ورزﺷﯽ ﺑﺎ ﺗﺨﺼﺺ ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮی ﺑﻮد ﮐﻪ از روش ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪﮔﯿﺮی ﻫﺪﻓﻤﻨﺪ در ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪ. در ﺑﺨﺶ ﺧﺒﺮﮔﺎن از ﻣﺼﺎﺣﺒﻪ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده، و ﺑﺎ 18 ﻣﺼﺎﺣﺒﻪ اﺷﺒﺎع ﻧﻈﺮی ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﺷﺪ. ﺑﺮای ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ دادهﻫﺎ از روش ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻣﺘﻘﺎﺑﻞ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪ. ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎ: در اﺑﺘﺪا ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﮐﻠﯿﺪی و ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮﮔﺬار ﺑﺮ ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮی ورزﺷﯽ اﺣﺼﺎء، و 58 ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﮐﻠﯿﺪی و ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮﮔﺬار ﺗﺪوﯾﻦ ﺷﺪ. در ﮔﺎم دوم ﺑﺎ ﺗﺸﮑﯿﻞ ﭘﺎﻧﻞ ﺧﺒﺮﮔﯽ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﮐﻠﯿﺪی و ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮﮔﺬار ﻣﺸﺎﺑﻪ ﺑﺎ ﯾﮑﺪﯾﮕﺮ ادﻏﺎم، و از ﺑﯿﻦ 58 ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﮐﻠﯿﺪی و ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮﮔﺬار، 8 ﭘﯿﺸﺮان اﺻﻠﯽ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮﮔﺬار ﺑﺮای ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮی ورزﺷﯽ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ ﺷﺪ. در اﻧﺘﻬﺎ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻧﺮماﻓﺰار آﯾﻨﺪهﭘﮋوﻫﯽ ﻣﯿﮏﻣﮏ و ﺑﻪ ﮐﺎرﮔﯿﺮی روش ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻣﺎﺗﺮﯾﺲ ﻣﺘﻘﺎﻃﻊ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻣﺘﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﭘﯿﺸﺮانﻫﺎ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺷﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ 8 ﭘﯿﺸﺮان اﺻﻠﯽ ﺑﺮ آﯾﻨﺪه ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮی ورزﺷﯽ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮﮔﺬار اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮی و زﯾﺮﺳﺎﺧﺖﻫﺎی آن، ﻓﻨﺎوری و دﯾﺠﯿﺘﺎل، ﺳﻠﺎﻣﺘﯽ و ﺗﻨﺪرﺳﺘﯽ، ﺗﺤﻮﻟﺎت ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺘﯽ و اﺷﺘﻐﺎل، ﭘﺎﯾﺪاری ﻣﺤﯿﻂ، ﻣﺘﻨﻮعﺳﺎزی، ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی و رﺳﺎﻧﻪ و ارﺗﺒﺎﻃﺎت ﻣﯽﺷﻮد. ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪﮔﯿﺮی: درﻧﻬﺎﯾﺖ آﯾﻨﺪه ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮی ورزﺷﯽ ﺑﺎ ﺗﺮﮐﯿﺒﯽ از زﯾﺮﺳﺎﺧﺖﻫﺎی ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮی، ﻓﻨﺎوری و دﯾﺠﯿﺘﺎل، ﺳﻠﺎﻣﺘﯽ و ﺗﻨﺪرﺳﺘﯽ، ﺗﺤﻮﻟﺎت ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺘﯽ و اﺷﺘﻐﺎل، ﭘﺎﯾﺪاری ﻣﺤﯿﻂ، ﻣﺘﻨﻮعﺳﺎزی، ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی و رﺳﺎﻧﻪ و ارﺗﺒﺎﻃﺎت ﻫﺪاﯾﺖ ﻣﯽﺷﻮد. ﻣﻘﺎﺻﺪی ﮐﻪ از اﯾﻦ ﭘﯿﺸﺮانﻫﺎ اﺳﺘﻘﺒﺎل ﻣﯽﮐﻨﻨﺪ و در اﯾﻦ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ ﮔﺬاری ﻣﯽﮐﻨﻨﺪ در ﻣﻮﻗﻌﯿﺖ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺒﯽ ﻗﺮار ﺧﻮاﻫﻨﺪ ﮔﺮﻓﺖ.
کلیدواژه آینده گردشگری، توسعه گردشگری ورزشی، زیرساخت گردشگری، مدیریت گردشگری
آدرس دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان), ایران, دانشگاه تهران, دانشکدۀ تربیت بدنی و علوم ورزشی, گروه مدیریت ورزشی, ایران, دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی, ایران
پست الکترونیکی h_ghorbani91@yahoo.com
 
   analysis of drivers affecting the future of sports tourism in iran  
   
Authors hossein ebrahim ,saddam ,mahmoudi ahmad ,ghorbani mohammad hosein
Abstract    objective: sports tourism can have many effective drivers on which travel decisions are made. analyzing the effective drivers of the future of sports tourism can help the progress of this field. therefore, the aim of the current research was to analyze the drivers affecting the future of sports tourismmethod: the current research method is mixed and of analytical and exploratory type, and in terms of its purpose, it is part of applied research. the participants in this research included experts and experienced people in the field of sports tourism, including guides of sports tourism tours, experts in the field of sports tourism, senior managers of organizations related to tourism, and professors of sports management with tourism expertise, and the purposeful sampling method was used in the research. in the expert section, interview tools were used and theoretical saturation was achieved with 18 interviews. to analyze the data, the interaction analysis method was used.results: at first, key and influential factors on sports tourism were counted and 58 key and influential factors were compiled. in the second step, with the formation of an expert panel, similar key and influential factors were merged with each other, and out of 58 key and influential factors, 8 main influential drivers for sports tourism were identified. in the end, the mutual effects of the propellants were analyzed by using the future research software micmac and applying the cross-matrix analysis method. the results of the research showed that 8 main drivers affect the future of sports tourism, which include the development of tourism and its infrastructure, technology and digital, health and wellness, management and employment developments, environmental sustainability, diversification, economic factors and media and communications.conclusion: finally, the future of sports tourism is guided by a combination of tourism infrastructure, technology and digital, health and wellness, management and employment developments, environmental sustainability, diversification, economic factors and media and communication. destinations that welcome these drivers and invest in these factors will be in a good position
Keywords future of tourism ,sports tourism development ,tourism infrastructure ,tourism management
 
 

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