prediction of outstanding ibnr liabilities using delay probability

‎an important question in non life insurance research is the ‎estimation of number of future payments and corresponding ‎amount of them. a ‎loss reserve is the money set aside by insurance companies to pay ‎policyholders claims on their policies. the policyholder behavior for reporting claims after its ‎occurrence have significant effect on the costs of the insurance ‎company. this article considers the problem of predicting the amount and number ‎of claims that have been incurred but not reported, ‎say ibnr‎. ‎using the delay probabilities in monthly level, ‎calculated by the zero inflated gamma mixture distribution, ‎it predicts ibnr’s‎ ‎loss reserve. ‎‎the model advantage in the ibnr reserve is insurers can predict ‎the number of future claims for each future date. ‎this enables ‎them to change the claim reporting process. the practical applications of our findings are applied against a third party liability (tpl) insurance loss portfolio. additional information about claim can be considered in the loss reserving ‎model and making the prediction of amount more accurate.