on the effect of change in age structure (population ageing) on housing price in iran

Housing is a substantial part of the economy with a significant role in gdp,investment and employment. the growth of this sector will result inprosperity of other sectors of the economy because of its many backwardand forward linkages. the recent fluctuations in iran’s housing price havetransmitted to the whole economy and turned to a big challenge. it has beenargued in the literature that the demographic factors are also affectinghousing price, besides economic forces. the aim of this study is toinvestigate the impact of changing demographic factors (population agingand population growth rate) alongside macroeconomic variables onhousing price in iran. using an ardl model and data for 1973-2018, wefind that population growth rate, real per capita income and realconstruction costs have positive impact on housing price both in short andlong run while real price of gold coin and population ageing have negativeeffect, of course with weaker effect in the short run. since the model is inlogarithmic form, the coefficients become elasticities and comparable toeach other. so, the most significant and effective factors in determininghousing price, are population ageing, population growth rate, realconstruction costs, real gold price and real per capita income respectively.