ارزیابی خشکسالی هواشناسی و هیدرولوژیکی زمان حال و پیش‌نگری آن در آینده در حوزه‌ آبخیز تجن

در این پژوهش اثر تغییر اقلیم بر دو نماینده‌ اصلی خشکسالی هواشناسی و هیدرولوژیکی به‌ترتیب شامل بارش و رواناب در حوزه‌ آبخیز بزرگ تجن مازندران مورد تحلیل قرار گرفت. بدین‌منظور پس از جمع‌آوری داده‌های بارش، دما و دبی با استفاده از داده‌های گزارش پنجم در قالب دو سناریوی انتشار خوش‌بینانه (rcp2.6) و بدبینانه (rcp8.5) نسبت به پیش‌بینی داده‌های اقلیم آینده در یک دوره‌ 27 ساله (2050-2023) در سه ایستگاه کردخیل، سلیمان تنگه و ریگ چشمه اقدام شد. از داده‌های مربوط به دبی جریان ایستگاه کردخیل واقع در خروجی رودخانه‌ تجن نیز برای بررسی تغییرات رواناب در زمان حال و آینده استفاده شد. در ادامه، وضعیت خشکسالی هواشناسی و هیدرولوژیکی حوزه‌ آبخیز مورد نظر بر اساس دو شاخص بارش استاندارد شده (spi) و خشکسالی جریان رودخانه (sdi) در گام‌های زمانی مختلف سه، شش و 12 ماهه در محیط نرم‌افزار drinc مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. در نهایت، رواناب آینده‌ رودخانه‌ تجن با استفاده از مدل بارش-رواناب ihacres پیش‌بینی شد. نتایج روند بارش آینده با آزمون من-کندال نشان‌دهنده‌ کاهش روند بارش در دو ایستگاه کردخیل و ریگ چشمه و افزایش روند در ایستگاه سلیمان تنگه است. هم‌چنین، شدت خشکسالی هواشناسی آینده در ایستگاه‌های مختلف حوزه‌ آبخیز تجن با یک‌دیگر متفاوت بوده، اما در حالت کلی دارای یک روند مشابه هستند. نتایج خشکسالی آینده نشان داد وضعیت خشکسالی در برخی از سال‌های خشکسالی خیلی شدید و در برخی از سال‌ها فرامرطوب خواهد بود که نشان‌دهند‌ه‌ وجود تغییرات اقلیمی در یک منطقه است. ضریب نش-ساتکلیف (nse) با 48/0 و ضریب تعیین (r2) با 58/0 نشان‌دهنده‌ صحت مطلوب مدل ihacres در شبیه‌سازی رواناب آینده است. بررسی روند دبی ایستگاه کردخیل نیز نشان‌دهنده‌ روند کاهشی دبی جریان در آینده بدون تغییرات معنادار است. هم‌چنین، نتایج بررسی وضعیت خشکسالی هیدرولوژیکی نشان‌دهنده‌ غالب بودن وضعیت بدون خشکسالی (.≥sdi) و یا خشکسالی ملایم (-1≥sdi<0) در آینده است. در مجموع می‌توان جمع‌بندی نمود که خشکسالی هیدرولوژی و اقلیمی دارای هم‌زمانی نبوده و می‌توان با مدیریت مناسب شرایط خشکسالی هواشناسی و سایر عوامل محرکه دیگر از جمله تغییر کاربری از تشدید خشکسالی هیدرولوژیکی جلوگیری نمود.

evaluation of present meteorological and hydrological drought and its future forecast in the tajan watershed

introductionin recent years, our country has experienced an increase in the frequency and severity of natural hazards such as floods, droughts, and pests. these changes can be attributed to shifts in climate variables. due to its influential role in other natural hazards such as drought, climate can significantly impact the economy and people’s lives. this is particularly evident in the agricultural, animal husbandry, and industrial sectors, where it can cause damage and destruction in various regions. drought is one of the biggest climatic challenges that our country has been facing in recent years. when a drought occurs, it initially manifests as a meteorological drought. if the drought persists, it can lead to other types of droughts, including hydrogeological, agricultural, and economic droughts. each of these droughts, as well as their cumulative impact, affects various aspects of the ecosystem within a watershed. climatic changes cause many problems due to their impact on the temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation in various regions. due to its gradual process and slow speed, this phenomenon has been operating for a relatively longer period. its effects may be revealed after a few years and with a longer delay than other risks. this phenomenon has more tangible effects in rural areas because rural communities are more vulnerable. therefore, understanding this phenomenon and analyzing and evaluating its impact on ecosystems within a watershed is crucial for effective planning and decision-making. this knowledge is necessary for the implementation of appropriate adaptation strategies. material and methodsto carry out this research, the required climatic data were first collected from the meteorology and regional water department of mazandaran province. the spi (standardized precipitation index) index was also used to evaluate meteorological drought. additionally, to examine the trend of changes in flow rate, the data from existing hydrometric stations in the region, which have more comprehensive data, were utilized. lars-wg software was used to project future climate (2023-2050) conditions under two climate scenarios: an optimistic scenario (rcp2.6) and a pessimistic scenario (rcp8.5). after preparing the current and future data, the drinc software was used to determine drought thresholds based on the standard table for the spi. in this research, the ihacres hydrological model was also utilized to forecast future discharge. to achieve this objective, the future precipitation and temperature data obtained from the previous stage were utilized, along with the observed discharge data (1990-2020), to project the trend of discharge in the future (2022-2040). subsequently, the hydrological drought of the tajan watershed was calculated at the outlet station (kordkhil) using the sdi (streamflow drought index) in the drinc software. after analyzing the stream flow data and using the standard table associated with the sdi, the thresholds for hydrological drought were determined. results and discussionthe results of this study showed that, based on the spi standard table, the degree of drought in the area under investigation has fluctuated between -3.3 (indicating very severe drought) and 2.4 (indicating extremely humid conditions) in recent years. also, the future climate was projected for a period of approximately 27 years (2023-2050) under the influence of two optimistic scenarios (rcp2.6) and one pessimistic scenario (rcp8.5) at three selected stations (kordkhil, soleiman tange, rig cheshme). the results of the climate drought conditions and the index values for the projected period (2023-2050) at soleiman tange station, in 12-month steps showed that there is a possibility of a severe climate drought occurring in this region during the water year 2049-2050. also, the results show that there is no significant difference in the future drought index between the two scenarios. the results of the climate drought situation at rig cheshme station indicate a high likelihood of a severe climate drought in the region during the water year 2029-2030. additionally, the results of the climate drought condition at kordakhil station show that the condition at kordakhil station differs somewhat from the other two stations, which are located at higher altitudes. this difference is likely due to the proximity of this station to the caspian sea, as the climate in that region is influenced by the coastal humidity. it can also be expected that there will be a severe drought in the water year 2032-2033 in this region. the results of the ihacres model showed that the comparison chart of the simulated discharge and the observed discharge is in good agreement. additionally, the error coefficient values obtained during the two stages of evaluation and recalibration were 0.48 and 0.53, respectively. these values indicate the model’s acceptable ability to simulate future discharge. the results indicate that the discharge rate of the watershed is unlikely to undergo significant changes in the future as a result of climate change. the probable cause for this is the occurrence of intense rainfall events, which lead to flooding and subsequent increases in river discharge. considering that these results only show the effect of climate change on discharge, there is a possibility that other factors, such as land use changes, may also contribute to changes in the amount of discharge. conclusion the results of this analysis indicate that in both climate scenarios, there is a possibility of experiencing severe droughts in some years in the future. however, it is also possible for the climate to be very wet in certain years. these changes in the state of drought over approximately 30 years indicate climate fluctuations, which are one of the signs of climate change in a region. therefore, based on the obtained results, it cannot be concluded that we will experience either a completely dry or completely wet state in the next 30 years. thus, it is necessary to employ adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts of drought during certain years. the hydrological drought situation of the tajan river in the next 20 years (2020-2040) was evaluated using both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. the drought situation in this river has also exhibited fluctuations, with a decreasing trend of flow in some years and an increasing trend in others. these fluctuations also indicate another effect of climate change in a region, which causes heavy rains and floods, leading to increased river flow during certain times of the year. however, relying solely on the study of the flow rate of a region cannot accurately indicate the drought situation. this is because certain measures implemented in watersheds can significantly impact the flow rate of a river. therefore, considering all the conditions and climatic factors that govern our country, it is not surprising to see such changes occurring in different periods.