تحلیل فضایی وضعیت تاب‌آوری سکونتگاه‌های روستایی در برابر مخاطره زلزله(مطالعه موردی: شهرستان نیر)

امروزه دیدگاه ها و نظریه های مدیریت سوانح و توسعه پایدار به دنبال ایجاد جوامع تاب آور در برابر مخاطرات طبیعی بوده و سوانح طبیعی به عنوان پدیده های اجتناب ناپذیری به حساب می آیند که همیشه خطری جدی برای توسعه به خصوص در مناطق روستایی هستند. لذا، هدف از این پژوهش، بررسی وضعیت فضایی میزان تاب‌آوری سکونتگاه‌های روستایی در برابر مخاطره زلزله است. از نظر هدف پژوهش حاضر کاربردی، از نظر ماهیت و روش توصیفی- تحلیلی و برای جمع آوری داده ها از روش های اسنادی و میدانی استفاده شد. قلمرو مکانی تحقیق روستاهای شهرستان نیر از توابع استان اردبیل می باشد که با استفاده از 4 فاکتور، 1) تعداد جمعیت و خانوار، 2) فاصله از گسل اصلی فعال، 3) طبقه بندی ارتفاعی و 4) توزیع جغرافیایی، تعداد 30 روستا برای انجام تحقیق انتخاب شدند. روستاهای نمونه مجموعاً دارای 1818 خانوار و 5912 نفر جمعیت می باشند که با استفاده از فرمول کوکران تعداد 368 خانوار به عنوان نمونه انتخاب گردیدند. برای تجزیه و تحلیل داده ها از مدل تصمیم گیری کوپراس، آزمون تحلیل خوشه ای (k) و شاخص خود همبستگی فضایی استفاده شد. نتایج حاصله نشان داد، روستاهای ویرسق با مقدار (qi=1)، دوشانلو با مقدار (qi= 0.99)، روستای اینالو با مقدار (qi= 0.94) و روستای تک بلاغ با مقدار (qi= 0.93) و ... از نظر میزان تاب آوری در برابر مخاطره زلزله در رتبه های اول تا چهارم و مطلوبی قرار دارند و روستاهای برجلو با مقدار (qi= 0.345)، قورتولموش با مقدار (qi= 0.356)، خانم بالاکندی با مقدار (qi= 0.368) و روستای سقزچی با مقدار (qi= 0.392) نیز میزان تاب آوری بسیار کمتری برخوردار بوده و الگوی توزیع فضایی تا ب آوری روستاییان در برابر مخاطره زلزله نیز به صورت راندمی و تصادفی است.

spatial analysis of resilience of rural settlements against earthquake risk (case study: nair county)

introductiontoday, the perspectives and theories of disaster management and sustainable development seek to create resilient communities against natural hazards, which are considered inevitable phenomena that always pose a serious threat to development, especially in rural areas. natural hazards, with their various types and extensive reach, have always existed throughout the life of the earth as recurring and destructive phenomena, and they continue to represent a serious danger to humanity after the emergence of humans (portaheri et al, 2010: 32). environmental hazards are occurring not only in increasing numbers but also with greater diversity and levels of damage, particularly in rural areas. nevertheless, they are unavoidable phenomena, and the only way to cope with them is through their management (villagra, 2017: 662).given the environmental conditions and geographical location of iran, it is evident that the country is exposed to various hazards, with approximately 31 types of hazards occurring in iran out of the 40 identified globally (azadeh et al. 2017: 74). consequently, iran is among the countries with a very high vulnerability to disasters and natural hazards, ranking among the top ten disaster-prone countries in the world (behtash et al. 2013: 10). the villages in the niyr district, like other villages in the country, grapple with natural disasters, and to date, the rural housing in this area has not followed a specific structure or form and has not been built according to technical standards. in this context, the occurrence of natural disasters has consistently had detrimental effects on rural settlements.in this regard, the concept of resilience in rural areas is raised. considering that the rural areas of nir county are constantly at risk of earthquakes and are among the most affected by this hazard, the present study aims to analyze the spatial status of resilience in the rural settlements of nir county against earthquakes methodologythe present research is of the applied type and, in terms of nature and method, it is of the descriptive-analytical type. in order to collect data and information, two methods were used: 1) library-documentary methods and 2) field-survey methods. the spatial scope of the research includes the villages of nir county, located in ardabil province. to select sample households within the villages of nir county in ardabil province, due to the large number of villages in this county, sampling was conducted from all villages. with the input of university professors, advisors, and researchers in the field of rural studies and environmental hazards, 30% of the villages were selected as sample villages. resultsthe descriptive findings of the research indicate that out of 368 respondents, 59.5% were male and 40.5% were female. among them, 87.8% were married, with the highest number of respondents falling in the age group of 31 to 40 years at 25%, followed by the 41 to 50 years’ age group at 21.7%. in terms of education level, the largest number of respondents had a high school diploma at 25.5%, while 15.5% had completed elementary and middle school education. regarding employment, it can be stated that the majority of respondents were engaged in livestock farming, agriculture, and gardening, with 18.2% and 16.8% respectively. in terms of monthly income, the results showed that the largest number of respondents (29.6%) earned between 6 to 8 million tomans per month, while 21.2% earned between 8 to 10 million tomans per month. the smallest percentage, at 15.8%, earned less than 4 million tomans per month. additionally, regarding residential housing, 20.1% of the rural homes studied were newly built, 24.7% were renovated, 26.1% were dilapidated, and 29.1% were other types of construction. therefore, it must be stated that the housing conditions of the rural residents in the studied area are not at a standard level and require special attention from responsible organizations and the community. 4.discussion and conclusion the aim of this research is to analyze the spatial status of resilience in rural settlements against the earthquake hazard in the nir county of ardabil province. the results indicate that the housing conditions of rural residents in the studied area do not meet standard levels, and in the event of an earthquake, it could lead to significant human and financial losses for the villagers. it is essential for the relevant authorities, especially the housing foundation of the islamic revolution in nir county and the crisis management of this county and ardabil province, to pay special attention to this issue. furthermore, the ranking of sample villages in terms of rural resilience against the earthquake hazard using the copras multi-criteria decision-making technique revealed that the villages of virsagh (qi=1), dushanlu (qi=0.99), inalu (qi=0.94), and takbalagh (qi=0.93) rank first to fourth in terms of resilience (rural resilience) against the natural hazard of earthquakes and have a favorable status compared to other sample villages. in contrast, the villages of barjalu (qi=0.345), qurtolmosh (qi=0.356), khanem balakandi (qi=0.368), and saqzchi (qi=0.392) exhibit significantly lower resilience against the natural disaster of earthquakes based on twelve research indicators.thus, it can be stated that 39.9% of the villages in this county do not have a favorable status in terms of resilience against earthquakes, particularly concerning indicators such as supportive policies, recovery to suitable conditions, income and employment, participation, awareness and knowledge, networks, norms, institutional framework, institutional relations, institutional performance, vital arteries, and critical infrastructure. in the event of such a crisis, these villages will face numerous challenges. regarding spatial distribution, the pattern of spatial distribution of rural resilience in nir county against earthquake hazards is random and arbitrary. some sample villages that are close to the main fault or even at a considerable distance from it have inadequate resilience. geographically, villages located in the southern, southwestern, and northeastern parts of nir county are in a poor state of resilience, while those situated in the northern part of this county exhibit higher levels of resilience.