آینده‌پژوهی توسعه فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات در کسب‌وکارهای تعاونی‌های تولید روستایی استان آذربایجان شرقی

ادغام فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات در ابتکارات توسعه روستایی نوید قابل‌توجهی برای تغییر چشم‌انداز اجتماعی-اقتصادی روستاها دارد. روستاها که به‌طور سنتی به‌عنوان بستر تولید و پیشرفت اقتصادی در نظر گرفته می‌شوند، از مداخلات فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات که پتانسیل افزایش بهره‌وری، تقویت رشد اقتصادی و ارتقای استانداردهای زندگی را دارند، سود می‌برند. علاوه بر این، ایجاد تعاونی‌ها در مناطق روستایی به‌عنوان یک استراتژی محوری در کاهش فقر، افزایش سطح درآمد و گسترش فعالیت‌های کشاورزی ظاهر می‌شود. شناخت نقش محوری تعاونی‌ها و تقویت همکاری بین روستاییان برای حفظ پیشرفت اجتماعی-اقتصادی و تقویت توسعه جامعه ضروری است. روش تحقیق در این پژوهش از نظر هدف کاربردی و استفاده از رویکرد توصیفی- تحلیلی برای جمع‌آوری داده‌ها می‌باشد. هدف این مطالعه با استفاده از رویکرد ترکیبی روش و رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی، شناسایی محرک‌های کلیدی از طریق ماتریس تجزیه‌وتحلیل اثرات متقابل ارائه‌شده در یک پرسشنامه محقق‌ساخته است. تعداد 31 کارشناس از نهادهای مختلف شرکت کردند که بر اساس معیارهایی مانند تخصص، سوابق تحصیلی و تجربه انتخاب شدند. نرم‌افزار میک‌مک برای تجزیه و تحلیل ماتریس متقابل استفاده شد و نرم‌افزار سناریوویزارد تجزیه‌وتحلیل سناریو را تسهیل کرد. این پژوهش بر بستر برنامه‌ریزی توسعه منطقه‌ای استان آذربایجان شرقی متمرکز است. از مجموع 45 عامل ‌اولیه ‌تاثیرگذار، 8 عامل ‌به‌عنوان محرک‌های کلیدی ‌موثر بر ‌روند ‌آینده ‌سیستم‌ انتخاب ‌شدند. پس از تعیین درجه مطلوبیت و عدم قطعیت، امکان استخراج سناریوهای سازگار فراهم شد. «طراحی و اجرای سیاست‌های مطلوب به‌منظور شکل‌گیری ارتباط موثر برای ایجاد همکاری مراکز علمی برای آموزش اعضای تعاونی برای استفاده از ict»، در رتبه اول ثبات و استحکام فرضیات استخراج شد. «برنامه‌ریزی منسجم و کارآمد جهت گردآوری نرم‌افزار کاربردی ویژه تعاونی‌های تولید» و «برنامه‌ریزی و تخصیص ردیف اعتباری در بودجه برای تامین مالی فعالیت‌های توسعه‌ای تعاونی که از ict استفاده می‌کنند»، دو سناریو سازگار دیگر هستند.

future study of the development of information and communication technology in the businesses of rural production cooperatives in east azerbaijan province

introductiongiven that economies, particularly rural economies, are confronting more competitive global markets for innovation and growth, the role of information and communication technology in facilitating the expansion of innovative products and new businesses in villages for innovation and education is becoming more important. it appears that the acknowledgment of ict as a critical component for future economic and social success has been overshadowed by the issue’s prominence in previous development plans, particularly the sixth development plan, and the cooperative sector’s role in the seventh development plan’s bill and the cooperation sector development document. therefore, there must be a plan for the future that lays out how information and communication technology (ict) will be improved and how all parties involved will reap the advantages. future advances may be inferred from previous performance and present strengths by relying on past research to determine future objectives. a prospective exploratory study that considers the perspectives of academic and practical stakeholders is well-suited to accomplish the goals of this research and provide answers to the questions at hand, because there is a need for cooperative development in rural areas and for a thorough grasp of the larger context in which the co-creation of value using information and communication technologies takes place. despite the fact that future research builds on current knowledge, there are limitations to capturing future advancements when constructing an agenda based on existing research. to help pave the way for future discussions regarding the fate of production cooperatives in east azerbaijan province, this study will use a future research approach to identify the top areas of focus in rural cooperative information and communication technology (ict) research and practice, thus overcoming this limitation. methodologythis study’s methodology is descriptive-analytical in nature, with a mixed (mixed) foundation in the nature of the data and an eye toward future study; it is also practical in terms of its objective and the information it collects. researchers administered a questionnaire with a mutual effects analysis matrix (impact rating from 0 to 3), which helped to identify the primary drivers. the panel consisted of 31 professionals from various academic institutions in the areas of regional development planning and cooperation, including tabriz university, islamic azad university of tabriz, the agricultural jihad organization of east azerbaijan province, and future research experts from the province. rather than using a random sample technique, the panel approach welcomed respondents based on factors like their history, the relevance of their academic area and experience, the likelihood of their answer, their academic degree, and so on. the degree to which a measuring device produces consistent findings when subjected to identical circumstances is the essence of reliability in the context of questionnaires and other measuring tools. given that the experts who participate in this method have extensive professional experience and advanced degrees, it stands to reason that their opinions will be sufficiently stable. consequently, reliability measures like cronbach’s alpha or composite reliability don’t really matter. for scenario analysis, we utilized scenario wizard, and for interaction matrix analysis, we used micmac. the province of east azerbaijan is the site of the study. results45 factors were extracted. the dimensions of the matrix are 45x45 and the degree of filling of the matrix is 65.77, which shows that the factors have influenced each other in more than 65%. out of the total of 1332 possible relationships in this matrix, 693 are zero relationships, 365 relationships are number one, 402 the relationship between the number two and 565 is the relationship between the number three. the following results were obtained:the number of 11 factors are determining or influencing variables;the number of 16 factors are two-way variables;the number of 5 factors are regulatory variables;the number of 7 factors are among the influencing variables or results;8 factors are independent variables. discussioneleven elements were chosen as critical drivers impacting the system’s future trend from a pool of forty-five main influencing variables; all eleven elements were used in both direct and indirect influencing techniques. when preparing the scenario portfolio, the experts eliminated three components to guarantee that there was consensus between them about the relative relevance of each variable. after the level of desire and uncertainty was determined, the scenario wizard program could be used to extract scenarios with high, strong, and weak probabilities of compatibility and adaption. we examined the scenario with high compatibility, based on the findings of two scenarios, out of 87 weak possibilities and 1 strong scenario. each of the crucial components has three potential outcomes, and we classify each of those outcomes as either positive, static, or critical. conclusionout of the total of 45 primary influencing factors, 8 factors were selected as key drivers affecting the future trend of the system. after determining the degree of desirability and uncertainty, it was possible to extract compatible scenarios. designing and implementing desirable policies in order to form effective communication to create cooperation between scientific centers for training trainees to use ict, in the first place, stability and strength of assumptions were extracted. coherent and efficient planning to compile application software for production cooperatives and planning and allocating a line of credit in the budget to finance development activities that use ict are two other compatible scenarios.