آینده‌پژوهی تحقق توسعه پایدار شهری در شهرهای مرزی(نمونه: شهر مرزی مریوان)

آینده‌پژوهی شهرهای مرزی و لزوم توجه به این شهرها در راستای تحقق توسعه پایدار نقش مهمی در پیشرفت توسعه اقتصادی، بهبود زندگی مردم، کاهش فقر و بیکاری مردم آن منطقه و تسریع روابط همکاری بین نواحی مرزی دارد. پژوهش حاضر با‌هدف آینده‌پژوهی تحقق توسعه پایدار شهری در شهرهای مرزی انجام شد. پژوهش بر اساس هدف، کاربردی و روش بررسی آن، توصیفی - تحلیلی و ازنظر ماهیت، به دلیل رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی، تحلیلی - اکتشافی است. روش گردآوری داده‌ها اسنادی – میدانی در قالب پرسشنامه بوده است. جامعه آماری تحقیق، 30 نفر از کارشناسان و متخصصان و نخبگان است و مولفه‌های شناسایی‌شده شامل 4 معیار اصلی و 50 متغیر است. برای تجزیه‌وتحلیل داده‌ها، از روش‌های ترکیبی پنل خبرگان، اثرات متقاطع و نرم‌افزار micmac استفاده‌شده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد 15 پیشران کلیدی، در آینده شهر مرزی مریوان تاثیرگذاری مستقیم و غیرمستقیم داشتند که از این تعداد، شش پیشران مربوط به بعد اجتماعی و فرهنگی، چهار پیشران مربوط به بعد زیست‌محیطی، چهار پیشران مربوط به بعد اقتصادی و یک پیشران مربوط به بعد فضایی- زیربنائی بوده است. مهم ترین عوامل موثر بر تحقق توسعه پایدار در شهر مرزی مریوان در آینده کاملاً مرتبط با جنبه های توسعه گردشگری در این شهر است؛ و بنا بر اذعان کارشناسان و متخصصان حوزه توسعه شهری زمینه‌های گردشگری زیادی در این شهر وجود دارد که می تواند جایگزین یا عامل تکمیل‌کننده مبادلات مرزی برای تحقق توسعه پایدار شهری در مریوان باشد.

future research on the realization of sustainable urban development in border cities(case: marivan border city)

introductionborder areas are considered as critical and strategic points of a country and are known as marginal and underdeveloped areas. although this marginality can be a result of its geographical conditions; but the very phenomenon of being a border makes many of its facilities and capabilities problematic. features such as distance from the center, geographical isolation, instability of settlement, cultural differences, external threats, border exchanges, etc. have given special importance to these regions in the country’s development, security and development planning. in order to achieve sustainable and rational development now and in the future, the main factors affecting sustainable urban development must be identified in the first stage, and in the next stage, in the form of short, medium and long-term plans, in order to reach the optimal scenario of sustainable development for each of them. from the key drivers of direction. the city of marivan has expanded its commercial influence to the center of iran with the boom of formal and informal trade, but this influence was only due to its border location and commodity exchange, which has been in recent years and has experienced shaky conditions. therefore, the future research approach seeks to find different scenarios and emphasize on strengthening the positive points, both from the border location and regardless of it, to achieve sustainable development in these areas, and the current research was carried out with the goal of future research to realize sustainable development in the border city of marivan.  methodologythe current research is considered as an applied research, and for its compilation, analytical-descriptive method was used to collect the required data and information, a survey method (questionnaire) and documentary studies were used to examine the theoretical foundations and literature of the subject. the statistical population of the research were experts and officials specializing in the field of environmental management and urban planning. at first, 57 indicators that were identified to measure the level of sustainable development of border cities in marivan city were provided to experts and 50 indicators were confirmed. after the key factors were identified through the opinion of experts, in the third stage, we identified the effective driving forces and created a matrix of key factors to identify the driving forces, and the 50 factors that were identified by the elites were arranged in a 50 x 50 matrix. in order to identify the driving forces among the key factors, the cross influence method was used with the help of micmac software.  resultsborder cities are one of the sensitive and strategic points of a country and they are also considered an opportunity for many countries, the development of these cities can be effective in cross-border cooperation, paying more attention to these cities and examining their strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats, for achieving capabilities is a basic necessity for developing plans and programs for these cities. what is needed is to revise approaches and use new tools in planning. future research as a new approach is a process that leads to sustainable results and sustainable development in these cities. therefore, the identified and determined indicators were placed in micmac software, because the number of identified indicators is 50, the dimensions of the matrix are 50x50, and based on the points that were given in the micmac software in the questionnaire section, the results the main ones were presented. the results are as follows that the degree of filling of the matrix is 67.25% and it shows that the determined indicators have a great influence on each other and out of the total evaluable relationship of the indicators, 285 relationships are number (zero), which means that the indicators have not affected each other, and among these, 575 relationships have a number (one), which indicates the low impact of the indicators on each other, and about 843 relationships have a number (two), which indicates a relatively strong influence of the indicators on each other and 679 relationships have the number (three) which is a sign of many key index relationships that have great influence and effectiveness. about 118 relationships have had a p number, which indicates significant potential relationships. then the direct effects of the variables on each other were evaluated. at this stage, the most important driving forces have been determined to have both a high level of influence and a high level of uncertainty. and in the last stage, the design of the possible situations of the obtained key factors was undertaken, and for each of the factors, three favorable assumptions (green color), static (yellow color) and crisis (red color) were considered respectively; therefore, in total, the possible situation was designed that the proposed assumptions are images of the possible and believable futures of the advancement of the sustainable development indicators of the border city of marivan. and finally, the assumption of crisis (pessimistically) indicates the most inappropriate situation for the sustainable development indicators of the border city of marivan.  conclusionthis research examined the future research situation of the border city of marivan in the direction of sustainable development from economic, social and physical aspects. in this research, 4 main criteria with 50 variables were examined and based on the results, 15 key drivers were selected as key drivers in order from the most to the least important, out of which, six were related to the social and cultural dimension. and there were four drivers related to the environmental dimension, one driver related to the spatial-infrastructural dimension, and four drivers related to the economic dimension. among these factors, the use of tourism capacities has had the greatest impact on the sustainable development of the border city of marivan. also, the increase of public education in the field of tourism development and the existence of enough land to create tourism infrastructure have been selected as the most effective key factors in the direction of the sustainable development of marivan city. the results of applying the mi’kmaq model also showed that the most important factors affecting the realization of sustainable urban development in the border city of marivan in the future are completely related to the aspects of tourism development in this city; therefore, according to experts and specialists in the field of urban development, there are many tourism fields in this city that can be a substitute or complementary factor for border exchanges to realize sustainable urban development in marivan.