برنامه‌ریزی سناریوی شکوفایی شهری (مطالعه موردی: کلانشهر اصفهان)

کلانشهر اصفهان طی چند دهه اخیر با توسعه‌ی بی‌ رویه فیزیکی، توسعه صنایع، هزینه‌های خدمات، آلودگی هوا، حاشیه‌نشینی و... باعث تسریع در روند شکل‌ گیری توسعه ناپایدار شده است که لزوم توجه به شاخص‌ ها و ‏روندهای توسعه محور در حوزه پایداری را می‌طلبد. شکوفایی دارای شاخص‌هایی است‌ که بر‌ پایداری اجتماعی‌ به‌عنوان‌ یکی‌ از‌ ارکان‌ توسعه‌ پایدار تاثیرگذار ‌است. این پژوهش با استفاده از تکنیک تحلیل اثرات متقاطع و همچنین نرم‌افزار میک مک و سناریو ویزارد، مولفه‌های شکوفایی شهری در کلانشهر اصفهان را مورد تحلیل قرار داده است. نتایج میک مک نشان می‌دهد که کلانشهر اصفهان دارای سیستمی ناپایدار می‌باشد. درنهایت 14 عامل کلیدی انتخاب شدند و تعداد 42 وضعیت احتمالی مختلف بر عوامل کلیدی در نرم‌افزار سناریو ویزارد در نظر گرفته شد. نتایج نشان می‌دهد 3 سناریو احتمال وقوع بیشتری در توسعه‌ی شکوفایی آیندۀ اصفهان دارند. از بین این 3 سناریو، سناریوی اول شرایط ایده‌آل، سناریو شماره 2، سناریو نسبتاً مطلوب و سناریوی شماره 3، وضعیت بحرانی و نامطلوب را دربر دارد. از این میان، نرخ فقر بیشترین اثرگذاری را داشته که بیانگر اهمیت این عامل در شکوفایی شهر اصفهان می‌باشد.

urban prosperity scenario planning (case study: isfahan metropolis)

over the past few decades, the metropolis of isfahan has accelerated the process of unsustainable development with its excessive physical development, industrial development, service costs, air pollution, marginalization, etc., which requires attention to development indicators and trends. it requires the axis in the field of sustainability. prosperity has indicators that affect social stability as one of the pillars of sustainable development. this research has analyzed the components of urban prosperity in the metropolis of isfahan by using the cross-effects analysis technique as well as micmac and scenario wizard software. the results of mik mak show that the metropolis of isfahan has an unstable system. finally, 14 key factors were selected and 42 different possible situations were considered on the key factors in the scenario wizard software. the results show that 3 scenarios are more likely to occur in the future development of isfahan. among these 3 scenarios, the first scenario contains ideal conditions, scenario number 2, a relatively favorable scenario, and scenario number 3, a critical and unfavorable situation. among these, the poverty rate had the greatest effect, which shows the importance of this factor in the prosperity of isfahan.keywords: future study, urban prosperity, micmac, scenario wizard, isfahan metropolis.  extended abstractintroductionthe metropolis of isfahan faces significant challenges stemming from indiscriminate and uncoordinated development, rapid industrial expansion, increased immigration, and a range of associated issues, including construction on unsuitable land, rising service costs, escalating air pollution, neglect of structural improvement and renovation, and the proliferation of marginalized areas. if these trends persist, they will profoundly alter the city’s physical landscape, environmental integrity, social fabric, and economic dynamics. addressing these challenges necessitates a comprehensive reassessment of macro-management strategies and the integration of innovative planning tools. futures research, as a forward-thinking approach, offers a process-oriented framework that aligns planning practices with sustainable development outcomes. the objective of this study is to identify the key drivers and critical factors influencing the development and prosperity of the isfahan metropolis through a futures research perspective. the study further examines the interrelationships among these factors and their collective impact on isfahan’s future trajectory, laying the groundwork for scenario development and subsequent strategic planning. the primary research question guiding this investigation is: what are the most optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for the prosperity of the isfahan metropolis? by addressing this question, the study seeks to provide actionable insights for formulating strategies, policies, and planning frameworks that facilitate the realization of desirable future scenarios.literature reviewa review of internal and external studies on urban prosperity reveals the following findings:ahadnejad et al. (2017) analyzed the urban development components of the tabriz metropolis using the cross-effects analysis technique. their findings indicate that tabriz possesses an unstable urban system.jahani et al. (2021) concluded that ardabil is in a relatively weak state concerning the urban prosperity index, particularly based on the quality-of-life indicator. their study highlights that urban facilities are predominantly concentrated in the city center, resulting in a decline in the urban prosperity index from the central areas to the city’s outskirts.arimah (2016) demonstrated that effective development and management of infrastructure can significantly enhance urban prosperity in african cities.