Recent Advances in Probabilistic Prediction of Seismic Sliding Displacement of Slopes

This paper presents the recent findings of the authors in the recent years regarding the assessment of seismic sliding displacement of earth slopes. it is known that the earthquake-induced sliding displacement of earth slopes is a key index forthe landslide hazard estimation. the semi-empirical predictive models are commonly used to predict the seismic displacement of slopes through a simplified procedure, especially in regional scales. these models can be divided into two categories: therigid block-based models, and the flexible block-based models. there exist some limitations (e.g., sliding mass rotation) in the rigid and flexible block analyses which caused the development of further modified methods (e.g. jafarian and lashgari,2016, 2017). several recent predictive models were developed based on the modified versions of the newmark, decoupled, andcoupled methods (e.g., lashgari et al., 2018). the parameters used in the predictive models of sliding displacement of slopes can be divided into three main categories: (1) the earthquake record and its characteristics, (2) the material resistance of theslope, and (3) the failure geometry of the slope and its possible changes deriving from the rotation of the sliding mass during downward movement. some new predictive models have been recently developed in order to tackle these challenges.