آینده توسعه فضایی شهر و پیراشهر بندرعباس

پژوهش حاضر  باهدف بررسی پیش بینی و جهت یابی بهینه توسعه شهر در حاشیه بندرعباس با استفاده از الگوریتم های مارکوف و جنگل تصادفی انجام‌شده است. روش تحقیق به‌صورت کمی و ازلحاظ گردآوری اطلاعات به‌صورت توصیفی و تحلیلی می باشد. ابتدا برای تهیه نقشه کاربری اراضی شهر بندرعباس و حومه از تصاویر لندست استفاده شد. تصاویر مورداستفاده در این پژوهش شامل تصاویر مهروموم‌های 2000، 2005، 2010، 2015 و 2020 بود، و به‌منظور تجزیه‌وتحلیل اطلاعات از مدل های ahp-fuzzy، ca-markov و درنهایت از مدل random forest، استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که سطوح ساخته‌شده، آب و سنگلاخی در سال های موردمطالعه به‌طور مستمر افزایش‌یافته‌اند و سطوح دارای پوشش گیاهی و اراضی مرطوب کاهش پیداکرده‌اند. بیشترین تغییرات محیطی در بازه زمانی 2000-2005 رخ‌داده است و کمترین تغییر در دوره های زمانی 2015 -2020 بوده است. همچنین قابل‌ذکر است، کمترین رشد شهری در دوره های زمانی 2000-2005 و بیشترین رشد در دوره های زمانی 2010-2015 بوده است.همچنین  بیشترین تغییرات تبدیل به اراضی سنگلاخی و کمترین تغییرات مربوط به زمین های مرطوب بود. درنهایت، براساس نقشه پیش بینی سال 2025، بیشترین رشد شهر در شمال شرق و جنوب غرب است.

the future spatial development of the city and the suburbs of bandar abbas

urban expansion has led to the formation of complex forms of the spatial existence of cities. the consequences of this expansion have been shown in the form of agricultural land destruction, environmental damage, and uneven and scattered urban growth. in recent years, several programs have been prepared to organize, manage and guide the expansion of the city, which due to the lack of sufficient knowledge of the influencing and driving factors of the development, and the state and manner of the future expansion of the city, make decision-making in this field a serious challenge. as a result of the increasing growth of cities, the physical expansion of cities to the surrounding areas as well as the increa se of density and accumulation within the cities will be inevitable hence the peri-urban spaces are expanding when the population increases and urbanization accelerates, new residential spaces are created in the periphery of cities from the &city-rural& confrontation, which is strongly influenced by urban spaces. such residential spaces are called &pirashahr&. this urban growth will bring serious and countless problems. since the instability of the development of human societies in the last two centuries (after the industrial revolution) and its harmful consequences, which are a function of population variables, per capita and consumption patterns, attention to the principle of sustainability is being questioned more and more table 2 shows the results of the accuracy evaluation of the produced maps. according to this table, four parameters are presented for overall accuracy, kappa coefficient, producer accuracy and consumer accuracy. by examining the obtained statistical results, we find that the accuracy and parameters are often above 90% (except for the kappa coefficient of 2000 and the forecast kappa coefficient of 2020), which is very appropriate and in several cases these statistics are close to 100%. the results of this research are also in line. the results of their research show that vegetation lands have declined sharply in the time interval. also, based on the results of the sacrificing and colleagues (2014), farmers’ land has increased and urban growth has increased the study of the study, and the results of the overwhelming land change means also indicated the continuation of this process. research results majid (1393) in evaluating changes in land margin in urmia during the years 1989 to 2013, and then predicting the trend of changes by 2035 of the combination of markov chain and automated cells showed that the growth of urmia city has always caused the destruction of agricultural lands and gardens of this city and becoming residential lands. ali mohammadi et al the population growth of the city and followed by the change in land cover and destruction of vegetation. growth of urban population and a tongue to build a building on the populations of the crowd; during the destruction of crops, ranges, green space, the field of changes and significant changes in land cover, as well as the change in the climate. this research, using the modeling and analyzing chain of the markov and automated cells, was modeled and analyzed and analyzed the changes coated on the city of bandar abbas and its penetration area. for this purpose, the first latest satellite imagery was classified for 2000, 2005 and 2010, 2015 and 2020 with the most similar similarity approach. the classifications were analyzed and the results showed a coaxial coefficient of 90% and the high accuracy of the classification. in the following, changes in land coverings were carried out during the period (2000-2005), (2005 to 2010) and (2010 to 2015) (2015 to 2020) and (2015 to 2020). in the next step, using the markov chain analysis and automated cells, modeling and predicting changes in landing coating in the future.