sensitivity analysis in a multi-carrier energy hub system through electrical and thermal profile procurement

This work deals with the energy hub systems in order to evaluate the sensitivity analysis of the output power carriers in terms of the input electricity and natural gas. unlike the recent works that have solitary concentrated on the operational cost minimization, in this research work, not only the energy carriers of the proposed hub are being modeled but also the sensitivity analysis of each power supplier is investigated. since some of the input power carriers in the hub are decreased slightly or immediately according to the unsolicited situations, the output electrical or thermal profile may not be supplied completely. therefore, the network operator must make a proper decision in order to utilize the best carriers not to reduce the system efficiency, if possible. in this regard, the objective function including the energy costs for the electrical, thermal, and cooling demand carriers is optimized, and the best solution is extracted based on the conditional value at risk (cavr) of the electricity market actors using the gams/cplex software. according to the results obtained, the higher the risk that the network operator takes, the higher the profit from the future contracts. in the next step, the electricity price is predicted using the arima approach for the next four weeks, and the sensitivity analysis for the future of the energy hub is examined. the simulation results and the changes in the share of energy carriers show that the importance of passive defense must be considered in planning for the energy supply of the office buildings, and the percentage of the unsupplied energy must be studied.