پیش‌ بینی اثر اقلیم بر میزان تولید و عملکرد صیفی ‌جات در استان خوزستان، مطالعه موردی (گوجه فرنگی، خیار و هندوانه)

تولید محصولات کشاورزی به‌ ویژه بصورت کشت دیم همبستگی بالایی با عوامل اقلیمی دارد. تغییر اقلیم علاوه بر تاثیر بر تولید محصولات کشاورزی، با تاثیر بر منابع آب، بر پایداری و عملکرد محصولات کشاورزی اثر می‌گذارد. پیش‌بینی عملکرد محصولات کشاورزی یکی از ابزارهای مدیریتی در برنامه‌ریزی و سیاست‌گذاری بخش کشاورزی است. هدف از انجام این مطالعه ارزیابی عملکرد و تولید سه محصول خیار، گوجه‌فرنگی و هندوانه در اثر تغییر اقلیم در استان خوزستان و پیش‌بینی آن­ها برای سال­های 2025 تا 2100 می‌باشد. به‌منظور برآورد تابع واکنش عملکرد سبزیجات استان خوزستان داده‌های هواشناسی شامل بارش، دمای کمینه، دمای بیشینه و رطوبت نسبی 13 ایستگاه هواشناسی شامل شهرستان‌های اهواز، ایذه، اندیمشک، ماهشهر، بهبهان، دزفول، آزادگان، رامهرمز، شوشتر، مسجدسلیمان، امیدیه، شادگان و شوش در طی سال های 1370 تا 1399 جمع‌آوری گردید. برای محاسبه و تحلیل شاخص‌ها از دو نرم‌افزار excel و spss استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که دما و رطوبت تاثیر معنی‌داری بر عملکرد گوجه فرنگی، خیار و هندوانه در استان خوزستان دارند. پیش‌بینی عملکرد تا سال 2100 نشان داد که محصول خیار در منطقه (3) و هندوانه و گوجه‌فرنگی در منطقه (2) به‌ترتیب از افزایش عملکرد بالاتری برخوردار می‌باشند. همچنین پیش‌بینی عملکرد تولید تا سال 2100 نشان داد که به‌ترتیب گوجه‌فرنگی و هندوانه در منطقه (2) مقدار تولید بیشتری را به‌خود اختصاص می‌دهند.

forecasting the effect of climate on the amount of production and yield of vegetables in khuzestan province case study (tomatoes, cucumbers and watermelons)

the agriculture section as a subsection of our economy receives the most impact under the climate fluctuations. climate change is an unsustainable factor affecting the yield of agricultural crops. therefore, agricultural production, especially rainfed cultivation, has a high correlation with climatic factors. climate change, in addition to affecting the production of agricultural crops, affects the sustainability and performance of agricultural products by influencing water resources. agricultural product performance forecasting is one of the management tools in agricultural sector planning and policy making. the purpose of the current study was to evaluate the yield and production rate of three summer crops including cucumber, tomato and watermelon due to climate change in khuzestan province and their prediction for the years 2025 to 2100.2.materials and methods: in order to evaluate the reaction function of summer crops yield in khuzestan province, meteorological data including precipitation, minimum temperature, maximum temperature and relative humidity of 13 meteorological stations including ahvaz, izeh, andimeshk, mahshahr, behbahan, dezful, azadegan, ramhormoz, shushtar, masjed soleiman, omidieh, shadegan and shoush was collected during the years 1991 to 2020. excel and spss software were used to calculate and analyze the indicators. the climatic indices of khuzestan province were divided into two climatic regions. region (1) included ahvaz, mahshahr, behbahan, shoushtar, omidie, shadegan and shoush, and region (2) included dezful, azadegan, ramhormoz, masjed soliman and andimeshk. the yield function of three products including cucumber, tomato and watermelon at two regions was estimated using panel data and eviews software. then, the yield and production rate of crops were predicted using the climate forecasting scenarios for the years 2025 to 2100.3.results and discussion: the results showed that temperature had a negative and significant effect on the yield of tomato in region (1) and region (3), but it had a positive and significant effect on the yield of region (2). rainfall had a negative and significant effect on the yield of tomato in region (1). but rainfall had a positive and significant effect on the yield of crops in region (2) and (3). humidity had a positive and significant effect on tomato in region (1) and (2), but it had a negative effect on region (3). temperature had a positive and significant effect on cucumber yield in region (1) and region (3). but it had a negative effect on the yield of cucumber in region (2). rainfall had a positive and significant effect on cucumber yield in region (1) and (3). but it had a negative effect on the performance of region (2). humidity also had a positive effect on the performance of cucumber in region (1), but it had a negative effect on the performance of region (2) and (3).