تبیین مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک کشورهای حوضه آبریز کورا- ارس

طی چند دهه گذشته، تهدیدهای نوپدید زیست‌محیطی برخاسته از رشد جمعیت، گسترش شهرنشینی و دگرگونی آب‌و هوایی به تهدید فزاینده منابع آبی در مقیاس فروملی تا فراملی انجامیده است. تهدید بقای زیست بوم ‎ها و جوامع انسانی به علت کم‌آبی به‌ویژه در مناطق کم‌بارش در تقویت وجوه تعاملات همکاری در مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک نقش موثری داشته است. قدرت نسبی کشورهای واقع در یک حوضه مشترک از عوامل بروز هیدروهژمونی است و شدیدترین شکل آن زمانی رخ می‌دهد که کشور بالادست حوضه قدرت‌مندترین کشور یا واحد سیاسی فضایی حوضه باشد. هدف پژوهش حاضر تبیین و شناسایی نوع مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک کشورهای حوضه آبریز کورا - ارس است. پژوهش حاضر بر آن است تا مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک کشورهای حوضه آبریز کورا - ارس که دروندادهای آن به روش داده بنیاد (گرندد تئوری) و با انجام مصاحبه‌های نیمه‌ساختاریافته انجام‌شده است و بنابراین، این پرسش مطرح می‌شود که مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک کشورهای حوضه آبریز کورا - ارس چگونه می‌باشد؟. نتایج پژوهش بر پایه 30 مصاحبه استخراج شده است. یافته‌های تحقیق گویای آن است که مهم‌ترین عوامل موثر در مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک کشورهای این حوضه سدسازی‌های ترکیه، آلودگی رودخانه توسط ارمنستان، مشخص نبودن رژیم حقوقی رودخانه ارس-کورا، طرح‌های توسعه اقتصادی کشورهای حوضه آبریز، ضعف مدیریت منابع آب حوضه آبریز و پیامدهای آن تهدید امنیت غذایی و کشاورزی، تهدید سلامتی انسان‌ها، مهاجرت، خشکیدن دشت های حاصلخیز منطقه به‌ویژه مغان به خاطر آلودگی، نابودی جنگل‌های ارسبارن، تهدید امنیت ملی ایران در شمال باختری کشور و کشمکش و تنش در آینده بین کشورهای حوضه آبریز و کاهش کیفیت آب رودخانه است.

explaining the hydropolitical relations of the kura-aras basin countries

over the past few decades, emerging environmental threats arising from population growth, the expansion of urbanization, and climate change has led to an increasing threat to water resources on a subnational to transnational scale. the threat to the survival of ecosystems and human societies due to water scarcity, especially in low rainfall areas, has played an effective role in strengthening the aspects of cooperation in hydropolitical relations. the relative power of the countries located in a common basin is one of the reasons of hydro-hegemony, and its most severe form occurs when the country upstream of the basin is the most powerful country or spatial political unit of the basin. the present study aimed at the hydropolitical relations of the countries of the kura-aras basins, the inputs of which were conducted using the foundation data method (grounded theory) and by conducting semi-structured interviews, and therefore, the question is what are the hydropolitical relations of the countries of the kura-aras basin? the results of 30 interviews showed that the most important factors influencing the hydropolitical relations of the countries of this basin are turkey’s dam constructions, river pollution by armenia, the unclear legal regime of the aras-kura river, the economic development plans of the countries of the catchment, weakness management of water resources in the catchment basin and its consequences, threats to food security and agriculture, threats to human health, migration, drying up of the fertile plains of the region, especially moghan due to pollution, destruction of arsbaren forests, threats to iran’s national security in the north-west of the country, and the future conflict and tension among the countries of the catchment and the reduction of river water quality. extended abstract introduction the kura-ares basin is located in the south caucasus region between iran, turkey, azerbaijan, armenia and georgia. when the quantity of water does not keep up with the growing demand or its quality decreases, the competition between the actors who use the water intensifies. this situation shows its most destabilizing effect when the territory of a watershed crosses political borders. an issue that occurs in almost all basins in the caucasus, including in the kura-ares basin. but experience has shown that in many situations, instead of starting a new conflict, common water needs have been able to create cooperation at an unexpected level. therefore, the actors and political, economic and environmental actors of the kura-ares river basin in the south caucasus are numerous, diverse and both regional and global. the main use of kura-ares water in georgia is agriculture, agriculture and industry in armenia, and the primary source of drinking water supply in the republic of azerbaijan. however, the water basin is excessively polluted. considering the lack of monitoring of urban and industrial wastewater, agricultural return flows and excessive use of pesticides, especially in the republic of azerbaijan and oil-related industries, the extraction and melting of metals in georgia and armenia, the natural mechanism of this basin is facing serious challenges.therefore, due to the increasing harvest of turkey and armenia in the upstream parts of the river, the need for water resources will increase even more in the downstream countries. the aim of the current research is to explain and identify the type of hydropolitical relations of the countries of the kura-aras watershed, and therefore, the question is raised, what are the hydropolitical relations of the countries of the kura-aras watershed?.methodologythis research tries to explore the problem of hydropolitical relations of the countries of the kura-aras basin using the grounded theory. grounded theory is a type of qualitative and inductive methodology that has been less used in hydropolitics studies so far, but it focuses more on the analysis process that can extract people’s subjective perception of the existing situation based on systematic and coded analysis (from open and semi-structured questions). this theory includes three main steps, including open, central and selective coding, which is derived from the answers of experts and professionals to open questions in a semi-structured interview. the research population consisted of experts and scientific elites who specialize in the field of hydropolitics in general and more specifically in the field of hydropolitical relations of aras river.results and discussionhydropolitical crises and the complexity of issues show the power of countries in the management of transboundary waters. in this case, an in-depth interview was conducted with 30 experts (geography, hydropolitics, water management, sociology, international relations, and water engineering, etc.). a number of important and fundamental codes has been found in the field of hydropolitical relations of the countries of the kura-aras basin. 19 basic and conceptual categories (emigration, geographical and geopolitical location, population increase, environmental, climate change, agriculture and food security, international water rights, management, actors and activists, socio-cultural transformations, political crises, water shortage, industrialization and dam construction, water quality, government cooperation, water diplomacy, national security, health and health, hydro-hegemony) play an important role in the hydropolitics of kura-aras. finally, 11 main and important categories that play an important role in the hydropolitical relations of the countries of the kura-aras basin included: geopolitics, water diplomacy, social, environment, infrastructure, security, agriculture, legal, climate change, power, water pollution. the hydropolitical relations of the countries of the kura-aras basin, where turkey has built dams on the main branches of the kura-aras (karakut dam and bishkek dam). they were built or are being built, and the country of armenia through copper mines, domestic sewage and power plants and the presence of the zionist regime in water projects in the region, the lack of a legal regime will cause tension between the countries and in the not too distant future the situation of the kora watershed. aras will be a serious problem for the national security of the islamic republic of iran.conclusionthis basin is naturally located in iran due to its border situation and aras water supply and the location of a part of this basin inside the iranian soil. moreover, considering the existence of a common border with russia and the membership of three coastal countries in the european union, it is placed in the sphere of influence and interest of great powers and international organizations. they have to cooperate with each other to exploit common water resources. the limitation of governments in obtaining their rights for non-shipping uses of international shared water resources has always been the cause of differences between upstream and downstream governments. in this research, the hydropolitical relations of the countries of the aras-kura basin have been investigated.