تاثیرات احتمالی وحدت دوکره بر منافع ملی جمهوری اسلامی ایران

ﺟﻤﻬﻮری اﺳﻠﺎﻣﯽ اﯾﺮان از ﺟﻤﻠﻪ ﻣﻌﺪود ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎﯾﯽ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺗﻮاﻧﺴﺘﻪ رواﺑﻂ دوﺳﺘﺎﻧﻪ و ﻣﺴﺘﺤﮑﻤﯽ ﺑﺎ دو ﮐﺸﻮر ﮐﺮه ی ﺷﻤﺎﻟﯽ و ﺟﻨﻮﺑﯽ ﺑﺮﻗﺮار ﻧﻤﻮده و ﻃﯽ ﺳﺎﻟﻬﺎی ﻣﺘﻤﺎدی، ﺑﺎ وﺟﻮد ﺗﻤﺎﻣﯽ ﻣﺸﮑﻠﺎت ﻣﻮﺟﻮد، ﺑﻪ ﺣﻔﻆ اﯾﻦ رواﺑﻂ ﺑﭙﺮدازد. از ﺳﻮی دﯾﮕﺮ، ﺑﺎﻟﺎ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﺑﺤﺮان در ﺷﺒﻪ ﺟﺰﯾﺮه ی ﮐﺮه و ﻣﻄﺮح ﺑﻮدن ﻫﻤﯿﺸﮕﯽ ﺑﺤﺚ وﺣﺪت در ﺷﺒﻪ ﺟﺰﯾﺮه ی ﮐﺮه ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺒﺐ ﻋﺪم اﻃﻤﯿﻨﺎن در ﻣﻮرد آﯾﻨﺪه ی آن ﺳﺮزﻣﯿﻦ و ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺒﺎت ﻗﺪرت در آن، ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﻣﻠﯽ ﺟﻤﻬﻮری اﺳﻠﺎﻣﯽ اﯾﺮان در ارﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﺎ اﯾﻦ دو ﮐﺸﻮر را ﺷﺪﯾﺪا ﺗﺤﺖ ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮ ﻗﺮار دﻫﺪ. در اﯾﻦ راﺳﺘﺎ ﺳﻮال ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﺪﯾﻦ ﺷﺮح ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ: ﻫﺮﯾﮏ از ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎی اﺻﻠﯽ وﺣﺪت دو ﮐﺮه، ﭼﻪ ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮی ﺑﺮ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﻣﻠﯽ ﺟﻤﻬﻮری اﺳﻠﺎﻣﯽ اﯾﺮان ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ داﺷﺖ؟ ﻧﮕﺎرﻧﺪﮔﺎن ﻣﻌﺘﻘﺪﻧﺪ، اﺗﺤﺎد دو ﮐﺮه ﻫﻤﭽﻮن ﻗﺪرتﻫﺎی ﺟﻬﺎﻧﯽ و ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪای، ﺑﺮای ﺟﻤﻬﻮری اﺳﻠﺎﻣﯽ اﯾﺮان ﻧﯿﺰ درﺑﺮدارﻧﺪه ی ﻓﺮﺻﺖﻫﺎ و ﭼﺎﻟﺶﻫﺎﯾﯽ ﺗﻮاﻣﺎن اﺳﺖ، اﻣﺎ اﺣﺘﻤﺎل زﯾﺎدی وﺟﻮد دارد ﮐﻪ ﺗﺤﻘﻖ اﯾﻦ اﺗﺤﺎد، ﺑﯿﺶ از آﻧﮑﻪ ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻘﻮﯾﺖ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﻣﻠﯽ ﮐﺸﻮرﻣﺎن در ﺷﺒﻪ ﺟﺰﯾﺮه ﺷﻮد، ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ اﯾﺮان را ﻣﺤﺪودﺗﺮ ﻣﯽ ﻧﻤﺎﯾﺪ. روش ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺗﻮﺻﯿﻔﯽ- ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻠﯽ ﺑﻮده و ﺑﺮای ﮔﺮدآوری اﻃﻠﺎﻋﺎت ﻣﻮرد ﻧﯿﺎز آن ﻧﯿﺰ از روش اﺳﻨﺎدی و ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﻌﺘﺒﺮ اﯾﻨﺘﺮﻧﺘﯽ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ.

The Probable Effects of Korean Reunification on the National Interests of Islamic Republic of Iran

Islamic Republic of Iran is among the very few states which has established strong amicable relations with both North and South Korea and maintains these relationships over the years despite all of the difficulties. On the other hand, intensification of crisis in Korean peninsula and the continuing debates on its reunification can deeply affect the national interests of Islamic Republic of Iran due to the uncertainty of Korean peninsula future and the power relations in it. The authors believe that, Korean reunification will bring about both opportunities and challenges for Islamic Republic of Iran as well as the global and regional powers; however, there is a great possibility that fulfillment of this reunification restricts our national interest in the peninsula, rather than its reinforcement. In this regard, the present essay in addition to reviewing the background of Islamic Republic of Iran’s relations with both North and South Korea, will evaluate the most likely and significant scenarios of Korean reunification, and thus, it will consider the probable impacts of this event on the national interests of Islamic Republic of Iran.