determining and estimating the factors influencing the export of urea petrochemical products to export destinations (uae, turkey, china, and india) using autoregression with the distributive lag model (ardl)

As the largest exporter of non-oil products, the petrochemical industry’s growth and development have a significant role in economic prosperity. considering the sanctions on crude oil exports in recent years and the problem of crude oil sales, it is essential to pay attention to this industry as an influential factor in circumventing sanctions and currency for the country, developing its economic strategy, and achieving sustainable economic development. in this study, the factors affecting the supply of methanol exports to the uae, turkey, china, and india export destinations in the period 2001–2009 are examined and analyzed. according to the studies, the factors that have affected the supply of iranian methanol exports are the gdp of target countries, real exchange rate, exchange rate fluctuations, trade liberalization, price exchange ratio, refinery feed prices, and sanctions as the livestock variables. in this study, the actual exchange rate volatility index was estimated using the garch model. then, the export supply model of iran’s methanol product was calculated by the ardl method. according to studies, the variables of gdp and trade liberalization have a positive and significant effect on the supply of iranian exports in the short and long term. still, other variables have a negative and significant impact on the supply of iranian exports in the short and long term.