سناریوهای آینده نظم امنیتی منطقه‌ای غرب آسیا در افق 1405

منطقه غرب آسیا از نظر ژئواستراتژیک، ژئواکونومیک و ژئوپلتیک اهمیت ویژه‌ای برای قدرت‌های بزرگ دارد و به همین دلیل تاریخ یک قرن گذشته این منطقه فراز و نشیب‌های زیادی داشته است. کشورهای این منطقه را نیز به لحاظ پیچیدگی‌های خاص آن و تهدیدات روز افزون منطقه‌ای و فرا‌منطقه‌ای و همچنین نگرانی‌هایی که وجود دارد، نمی‌توان از یکدیگر جدا دانست و ناامنی هر کدام از این کشورها می‌تواند ناامنی دیگر کشورها را به دنبال داشته باشد. به همین دلیل، تحقق مطلوبیت‌های جمهوری اسلامی ‌‌ایران در منطقه و اینکه چه سناریویی می‌‌تواند مطلوبیت جمهوری اسلامی ‌‌ایران در این منطقه را به همراه داشته باشد یا به عبارتی، رصد سناریوهای محتمل و طراحی سناریویی که ارزش‌های حیاتی ایران را تضمین نماید حاوی ارزش راهبردی است و دارای اهمیت ویژه‌ای برای جمهوری اسلامی ایران است که هدف تحقیق حاضر نیز همین امر بوده است، لذا در این تحقیق با روش آینده پژوهی gbn و با انجام مصاحبه با 25 نفر از خبرگان و نخبگان آشنا با حوزه‌ی غرب آسیا و تجزیه و تحلیل آنها با روش تحلیل محتوا و همچنین داده‌های حاصل از پرسشنامه‌های توزیع شده بین 36 نفر از جامعه‌ی آماری به صورت هدفمند و تمام شمار با نرم‌افزارهای‌ excel و spss اقدام به شناسایی بازیگران، کنشگران، شگفتی‌سازها، پیشران‌ها و عدم قطعیت‌ها نمودم و نهایتاً چهار سناریوی محتمل به نام‌های( فروپاشی نظم فعلی و بی‌نظمی، هژمونی نظم ایرانی اسلامی، هژمونی نظم سلفی غربی، کنسرت قدرت‌های منطقه‌ای و نظم دسته‌جمعی) شناسایی گردید.

future scenarios of regional security order in west asia in the horizon of 1405

the west asian region is of special importance for the great powers in terms of geostrategy, geoeconomics, and geopolitics, and for this reason, the history of the past one century in this region has had many ups and downs. the countries of this region cannot be separated from each other in terms of their specific complexities and the increasing regional and extra-regional threats, as well as the existing concerns, and the insecurity of each of these countries can lead to the insecurity of other countries. for this reason, realizing the interests of the islamic republic of iran in the region and what scenario can bring the interests of the islamic republic of iran in this region, or in other words, monitoring possible scenarios and designing a scenario that guarantees iran’s vital values contains strategic value and it is of special importance for the islamic republic of iran that the main question of the present research was also focused on what are the possible future scenarios of the regional order in west asia? based on this, digzi’s sub-questions were designed as follows:who are the most important actors in the regional order of west asia?what are the most important key and influential factors in the regional order of west asia?what are the most important drivers of regional order in west asia?what are the most important key uncertainties in the regional order of west asia?since the main goal of this research was to achieve possible future scenarios of the regional order in west asia, other sub-goals were considered to achieve the main goal as follows:identifying the most important actors in the west asian regionidentifying the most important key and influential factors in the regional order of west asiaidentifying the most important drivers of regional order in west asiaidentification of key uncertainties in the regional order of west asiatherefore, in this research, with the gbn future research method and by conducting interviews with 25 experts and elites familiar with the west asian area and analyzing them with the content analysis method, as well as the data obtained from the questionnaires distributed among 36 people from the statistical community in the form of with excel and spss software, we purposefully identified actors, actors, surprise makers, drivers and uncertainties, and the following results were obtained:first, the most important active and effective actors in the regional order of west asia were determined: transformational actors in west asia are divided into two categories: regional and extra-regional actors.the regional actors of west asia are the four powers of iran, saudi arabia, turkey and the usurping zionist regime.america is considered the main actor in the developments of west asia at the extra-regional level, and other countries, including the european union and the zionist regime, will move in line with it.then, the most important key and influential factors in the environment including military, economic, social and cultural, political, security and environmental factors were determined as follows:the geopolitical and strategic importance of the west asian region for world powersthe location of the west asian region and the highway of economic exchangesthe importance of the security of strategic points in the west asia regioninternal stability, social cohesion and political legitimacy of west asian countriesthe entry or exit of extra-regional actors, their interventions, alliances, support and political agreements in the region.conflicts and territorial differences of west asian countrieseconomic stagnation, high inflation rate, high unemployment rate and poverty and inequality (horizontal and vertical) in west asian countries.ethnic conflicts and differences and identity gaps, sectarian and ideological rivalries, and the occurrence of political movements.improvement or deterioration of the economic situation of the countries in the region in the futurecrisis of oil reserves and natural resources, high demand and increase in energy consumption.the efforts of the west and the countries of the region to prevent the influence and proliferation of the islamic revolutionthe amount of economic, political, social and military support of the islamic republic of iran to the axis of resistance and its strengthening and development against the zionist regimethe secret relations between the arabs and the zionist regimeheterogeneous distribution of strategic resources (energy sources, fresh water, food, minerals, etc.)food securitythe transition state of the international systemthe importance of the security of the zionist regime in the region affected by the developments in west asiathe crisis in yemen and the future of the situation in syria and iraqexistence of fallen states as a regional power vacuumregional role of russia and chinanationalism, racism, increasing religious differences, conflicting macro narratives and conflict-oriented framing, dual discourse of compromise and resistance in the macro security issues of the region.the pressure of the west and the usurping zionist regime on iran in order to reduce the movements in the regionglobalization and development policies of the west led by america, england and some european countriesbased on the summary of the findings of the research, the number of 10 drivers was identified as follows and it was confirmed by experts and experts in terms of quality and quantity.geopolitical conflicts of iranidentitarianism; religious extremismintradiscourse competitions in the regioncompetition for energyinternal political instability of governmentsthe arms race of the countries of the regionobjective conflict in the interests of regional actorsthe drivers obtained were given to experts and experts and they were given a score of 0 to 3 based on the degree of influence (importance) and uncertainty.improving the political, military and economic capabilities of the islamic republic of iran and gaining the strength of the axis of resistance and achieving iran’s undisputed power in the region.the destruction of the political, military and economic capabilities of the islamic republic of iran and the weakening of the hegemony of the axis of resistanceimproving the political, military and economic strength of saudi arabia and its alliance with arab and western countries and the usurping zionist regime and its hegemony in the regionorientation and different tendencies of goat powers reg in support of coalitionsthe west’s cooperation with the saudi-oriented coalitionthe weakening of western cooperation and the failure of the arab-western coalitionthe weakening of cooperation between russia and china with the resistance allianceamerica’s withdrawal from the region and regional countries including iran gaining powerincreasing us intervention, support and political alliances with effective actors in the regionconvergence and cohesion of the coalition and companionship of the arabs and the zionist usurper regimeweakening the arab coalition and the usurping zionist regimearms races of regional actors at a very high levelsetting aside some basic and identity-building problems of regional and extra-regional countriesand finally, four possible scenarios were identified as (the collapse of the current order and disorder, the hegemony of the islamic iranian order, the hegemony of the western salafist order, the concert of regional powers and collective order).