آینده‌پژوهی قومیت‌گرایی و ‌‌تاثیر آن بر امینت جمهوری اسلامی ایران (مورد مطالعه: قومیت عرب)

ناآرامی‌های گه‌گاه در مناطق جنوب غرب ایران به‌ویژه خوزستان و مناطق عرب‌نشین ایجاب می‌کند به مسائل و تحولات این منطقه بیشتر توجه شود. برای پیش‌بینی وضعیت امنیتی کشور در سال‌های آینده، توجه به وضعیت قومی، فرصت‌‌ها و چالش‌های قومی بسیار ضروری است. هدف از انجام این پژوهش شناسایی متغیرهای کلیدی و پیشران‌های ‌‌تاثیرگذار بر آیندۀ قومی پیش روی جمهوری اسلامی ایران، با درنظرگرفتن مرزهای جنوب غربی کشور است. این پژوهش از نظر ماهیت و هدف، کاربردی و از نظر نوع روش، توصیفی‌پیمایشی و با توجه به آینده‌پژوهانه بودن آن، اکتشافی نیز هست. در این پژوهش برای شناسایی متغیرهای کلیدی و تشکیل گویه‌های پرسشنامه از روش پایش محیطی استفاده کرده‌ایم. جامعۀ آماری پژوهش با توجه به رویکرد ‌‌‌‌آینده‌پژوهی به‌شکل پنل خبرگان است. شناسایی متغیرهای کلیدی این پژوهش به روش ماتریس متقاطع و با استفاده از نرم‌افزار میک‌مک است. برای شناسایی سناریوهای محتمل از نرم‌افزار سناریو ویزارد استفاده کرده‌ایم.یافته‌های این پژوهش نشان می‌دهد 7 متغیر ذخایر عظیم نفت‌وگاز، توسعه‌نیافتگی، حمایت‌های عربستان و امارات از مخالفان، جنگ هشت سالۀ تحمیلی، فعالیت جریان وهابی، وجود ریزگردها و رقابت‌های منطقه‌ای به‌عنوان متغیرهای کلیدی استخراج‌شده از نرم‌افزار میک‌مک، آیندۀ پیش روی جمهوری اسلامی ایران را در زمینۀ قوم عرب به‌وجود می‌آورند. نتایج نشان می‌دهد، 6 سناریوی چالشی با سازگاری و امتیاز بالا، پیش روی آیندۀ جمهوری اسلامی ایران است که از میان آن‌‌ها 1 سناریو بسیار قوی و محتمل و 5 سناریو ضعیف به‌دست آمدند. سناریوی بسیار قوی به‌دست آمده، سناریوی ادامه روند موجود است.

the future study of ethnicity and its impact on the security of the islamic republic of iran(case of study: arab people)

occasional unrest in the southwestern regions of iran, especially khuzestan and arab-inhabited regions, requires more attention to the issues and developments in this region. in order to predict the country’s security situation in the coming years, it is absolutely necessary to pay attention to the ethnic situation, ethnic opportunities and challenges. the purpose of this research is to identify the key variables and drivers influencing the ethnic future of the islamic republic of iran, taking into account the southwest border points of the country. the future study of factors affecting national security has always been the concern of the rulers and strategists of every political system, because national security is the primary condition and of course the most important condition for the preservation, survival, progress and development of any country in all fields. the future is something that governments can design and shape with their targeted actions. in order to act wisely, they must have sufficient knowledge and understanding of the consequences of their actions and those of others. also, check the reactions of others and forces that are beyond their control. these consequences will only show themselves in the future in the form of opportunities, threats and damage. according to the above-mentioned contents, the terrorist attack in ahvaz on september 31, 2017, the attack on the police station in 2018, the unrest in 2018, and similar actions cannot be considered unrelated to ethnic divergence in this region. based on this, in order to predict the country’s security situation in the coming years and design appropriate security scenarios, it is absolutely necessary to pay attention to the ethnic situation and identify ethnic opportunities and challenges, and in this research, we try to identify trends, drivers and uncertainties. , draw the possible scenarios regarding the arab people using future research methods that will be explained below.this research is practical in terms of its nature and purpose, descriptive-survey in terms of method, and exploratory due to the future-oriented nature of the research. in foresight projects, a set of techniques are used that often complement each other and the outputs of each form the inputs of the next technique. for this purpose, to carry out the research, effective factors in the field of arab ethnocentrism were identified and the list of factors influencing the future research of arab ethnocentrism in the form of a matrix questionnaire was provided to 15 experts using the environmental monitoring method and review of specialist studies in this field. the experts of this research include professors and experts of security, political and social sciences specializing in the issues of the arab people. the variables and key drivers obtained by the cross matrix method and using the mikmak software were classified and again provided to the experts. the opinions of the experts were analyzed using scenario wizard software, and finally, possible and compatible scenarios were identified and extracted.among the 28 variables examined in this research, 7 key variables were identified. as can be seen in table number 4, there are two variables in the economic driver (massive oil and gas reserves and underdevelopment), in the cultural driver there is no variable, in the social driver there is one variable (the presence of micro dust) and in the political driver there are four variables (supports saudi arabia and the uae were identified as opponents, the 8-year imposed war, the activities of the wahhabi movement and regional rivalries. the findings of this research showed that seven variables of huge oil and gas reserves, underdevelopment, support of saudi arabia and the uae to the opposition, imposed eight-year war, the activity of the wahhabi movement, the presence of