تبیین بی‌ثباتی سیاسی در جامعۀ ناهمگون عراق در سال‌های 2003 تا 2022

بررسی تحولات سیاسی در عراق در سال‌های 2003 تا 2022 نشان می‌دهد که دموکراسی در این کشور از چندین جنگ داخلی گذر کرده است. هنوز انتخابات مورد تاکید همۀ گروه‌‌های مذهبی، قومی و سیاسی است، اما رقابت بین فرقه‌ها و گروه‌‌های مختلف سیاسی سبب بی‌ثباتی و گاه آشوب در این کشور شده است.  این پرسش مطرح است که در سال‌های 2003 تا 2022 چه عواملی سبب تنش و بی‌ثباتی در عراق شده است؟ در پاسخ این فرضیه مطرح می‌شود که دموکراسی انجمنی، دولت ضعیف، ناهمگونی جامعۀ سیاسی و نبود تفکر ملی نزد نخبگان‌ از عوامل مهم بی‌ثباتی و تنش در عراق در سال‌های 2003 تا 2022 هستند. یافته‌‌های پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که فروماندگی دولت مرکزی عراق به چرخۀ خشونت و فرقه‌گرایی در این کشور دامن زده است. ضعیف‌بودن دولت مرکزی‌ سبب افزایش خواسته‌های گروه‌‌های قومی و مذهبی‌ و شخصیت‌ها و کسب سهمیۀ بیشتری از قدرت شده است. فرقه‌گرایی سبب بی‌ثبات‌کردن دولت‌ها، مداخلۀ بیشتر و تشدید جنگ قدرت شده است. هویت‌های فرقه‌ای امنیتی‌شده، به منبع بی‌ثباتی، درگیری و پراکندگی بیشتر در داخل‌ تبدیل شده است. هرچند در قانون اساسی جدید عراق بر نظم جدید حقوقی و سیاسی دموکراتیک و کثرت‌گرایانه تاکید شده است، تا نهادینه‌شدن و استقرار کامل آن، زمان زیادی لازم است.

explaining political instability in iraq’s heterogeneous society (2003-2022)

stability and dispute in heterogeneous societies with diverse racial, linguistic, religious, and ethnic factors are among the topics of interest to researchers and social scientists. they try to understand how rival social groups can communicate without conflict, chaos, or collapse while avoiding violence and oppression and achieving stability through “bargaining and compromise” (since otherwise, the institutionalization of sectarian identities may result in conflict over leadership and power among various groups). like other middle eastern nations, iraq has a mosaic-like social structure. this country’s diverse population includes ethnic and religious diversity, resulting in ethnoreligious structural gaps. in addition to the three major groups-, namely kurds, sunnis, and shiites- minority groups of iraq include mandaeans, jews, christians, and yazidis. iraq also hosts assyrians, chaldeans, and turkmens as ethnic groups. this country is divided into eighteen provinces; the three northern provinces are home to sunni kurds, the three northwestern and western provinces to sunni arabs, and the nine eastern and southern provinces to shiite arabs. demographically, none of the ethnic and religious groups constitutes the absolute majority. the kurdish provinces of iraq share borders with iranian, turkish, and syrian kurds. sunni parts of iraq border sunni countries such as saudi arabia, syria, and saudi arabia, while shia provinces of iraq border iran. this has led to interaction between these social groups and their neighboring countries.during saddam’s rule over iraq, there was no balance between the “society”, “sovereignty”, and “identity” of the government. people lacked a sense of belonging to iraq as a nation or as iraqis, and the government did not properly represent all social groups. on the one hand, the fall of saddam’s dictatorial regime and the absence of civil and democratic culture, the rule of law, non-compliance with democratic rules, and disregard for the interests of society caused disputes and tension between various groups in iraq, resulting in widespread turmoil and instability.a study of political developments in iraq from 2003 to 2022 shows that democracy has survived in the country despite several civil wars. although the elections is still accept by all different groups, competition between different sects and political groups has become instability and chaos.since there were various sects and political groups in iraq after saddam, the political elites agreed to establish an associative democracy model based on a power-sharing approach. associationalism and power sharing are complementary aspects of the same concept. associationalism is a theory that examines power distribution in highly diversified societies. power distribution necessitates that various parties have access to key positions of decision-making authority. according to social theory, political stability in ethnically, religiously, or linguistically heterogeneous societies is created by evaluating the power distribution at the leadership level.this research used descriptive, interpretive, and explanatory methods; this research employs an inductively based analytical-explanatory method. consulting library and internet sources, as well as articles and geographical maps depicting the status of various religious or ethnic groups collected data. the paper illustrates the instability in iraq by focusing on the conceptual model of associative democracy, the system of power sharing, and sectarianism.according to the findings, after the occupation by america and the fall of saddam hussein, the country of iraq has faced many difficulties and after years of war, sanctions and occupation, it entered the difficult stage of transition to democracy.