سناریوهای آیندۀ تاثیر اقلیت‌های مذهبی در ارتقای امنیت ملی (مورد مطالعه اهل سنت)

شناخت آینده و ایجاد تصویری از آن در زمان حال، از وظایف مدیران و سیاست‌گذاران کشورها است. ایجاد شناخت موردنظر باید به کمک روش‌های مناسب پیش‌بینی و تحلیل انجام شود. هرقدر این روش‌ها اتکاپذیرتر باشند، نتایج تحلیل و پیش‌بینی اهمیت بیشتری خواهد داشت. روش‌های تحلیل و پیش‌بینی مختلف هستند. در این میان سناریوسازی یکی از روش‌های مطالعة آینده و تحلیل امنیتی است که حاصل مطالعات پژوهشگران در تحلیل رخدادهای امنیتی است. در این پژوهش با توجه ‌به فراگیری اهل ‌سنت نسبت به سایر مذاهب موجود در کشور می‌کوشیم ضمن شناسایی کنشگران و پیشران‌ها و عدم‌قطعیت‌های موثر اهل‌ سنت ایران در امنیت ملی به این پرسش پاسخ دهیم که سناریوهای آیندۀ تاثیر اهل‌ سنت در امنیت ملی ایران کدامند؟ در این پژوهش مجموعه‌ای از روش‌ها و تکنیک‌های رایج در فرارشتۀ مطالعۀ آینده را به‌کار می‌گیریم و آیندۀ اهل سنت را با رویکردی میان‌رشته‌ای مطالعه می‌کنیم. این پژوهش ازنظر هدف، پژوهشی کاربردی و از نظر روش کیفی است و اقدام اصلی در این پژوهش سناریونویسی به روش جی‌بی‌ان است. بر این اساس در قالب چهار سناریو آیندۀ اهل ‌سنت ایران را ترسیم می‌کنیم.

future scenarios of the impact of religious minorities in promoting the national security of the islamic republic of iran (sunni case study)

knowing the future and creating an image of it in the present is one of the duties of managers and policy makers of countries; creating the desired knowledge should be done with the help of appropriate forecasting and analysis methods. certainly, the more reliable the above methods are, the more important the analysis and prediction results will be. analysis and forecasting methods are different. meanwhile, scenario creation is one of the methods of future study and security analysis, which is the result of many researchers’ studies in the analysis of security incidents. based on scenario building, these researchers tried to understand security events and later they used this method in civilian and economic issues as well. nowadays, scenario building is one of the important methods in formulating national security strategies. therefore, considering the importance and necessity of the coordination and coherence of the country’s strategic management in the fields of interaction with the sunnis and its role in the national security of the islamic republic of iran, under the title of future scenarios of the influence of religious minorities in the national security of j.a., it tries to use a scientific approach while the drawing of the mentioned scenarios will provide a relatively comprehensive view to the decision-makers and decision-makers in the sunni areain order to create the necessary preparations for the start of the scenario writing process, first, the scenario writing team consisting of experts in various fields, stakeholders and future researchers, as well as the bank of experts, was formed, and then the issue of scenario writing was explained.at first, the issues and influencing factors in the formation of the future of the sunnis and its effect on the promotion of the national security of the islamic republic are mentioned. these factors have been obtained during the study and review of previous researches and backgrounds, theoretical literature, as well as interviews with experts and a number of key players in different sunni fields. in the following, these factors have been presented in the form of a questionnaire to experts and specialists in various fields to comment on their influence on the future of sunnis. by summarizing the opinions and holding a panel of experts, 19 main factors were identified among these factors, which were provided to them separately in the second round of asking for opinions from experts to determine the importance and uncertainty of each. for the second round, it has been tried to get the participation of first-level experts who have a holistic and comprehensive approach to the issue of social messengers in the theoretical field and who are key actors in this field. the results of surveying experts’ opinions determined the importance and uncertainty of each of the factors and their ranking, and in another panel, by analyzing the content of these factors, we found two main factors and key uncertainty that form the main framework and structure of the scenarios. by considering two modes for each of these key uncertainties and their intersection, four scenarios are formed, which after forming and evaluating them, have been introduced and written as the main scenarios for the future of ahl al-sunni and its effect on improving the national security of the islamic republic. according to the results of the conducted research, it seems that the conducted research can be considered as the beginning and the first scientific and practical step to manage the atmosphere of uncertainty in the future of the sunnis of iran and its effect on the promotion of national security, which is within the limits of the possibilities and difficulties caused by the limitations.