سیاست خارجی عربستان در قبال ایران در دورۀ پسابرجام

از سال 2015 تغییراتی در سیاست خارجی عربستان سعودی ایجاد شد که با دوره‌های پیش‌تر متفاوت بود. یکی از عواملی که در تغییر رفتار سیاست خارجی عربستان تاثیر گذاشت، توافق هسته‌ای بین ایران و کشورهای 1+5 (ایالات‌ متحده، روسیه، چین، فرانسه، انگلستان و آلمان) بود. این پرسش مطرح است که فضای پسابرجام چگونه بر سیاست خارجی عربستان سعودی تاثیر گذاشته است. برای پاسخ به این پرسش، با استفاده از نظریۀ واقع‌گرایی نوکلاسیک این فرضیه مطرح می‌شود که فضای پسابرجام سیاست خارجی عربستان سعودی را تهاجمی کرده است. نتایج این پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که مقامات و تصمیم‌گیرندگان سعودی از ترس تغییر وضعیت و قدرت منطقه‌ای به‌نفع جمهوری اسلامی ایران، به‌سوی استخراج منابع خود (بیشتر نفت) رفته و با استفاده از این منابع، اقداماتی مانند افزایش خرید تسلیحات، به‌کارگیری سیاست‌های تهاجمی در منطقه و متنوع‌سازی شریک‌های جهانی برای تغییر موازنۀ قدرت به سود خود انجام داده‌اند.

saudi foreign policy towards iran in the post-jcpoa period

foreign policy is the most important aspect of sociopolitical life of nations and countries, because their survival depends on foreign policy. therefore, recognizing and studying the foreign policy of countries is very important. one of the most important countries whose foreign policy consideration is important is the kingdom of saudi arabia. saudi arabia has always sought leadership in the middle east, relying on its unique characteristics. however, the foreign policy of any country is based on facts and is influenced by factors that affect its efficiency at the regional level and even at the international level. the nuclear deal between iran and the 5 + 1 (united states, russia, china, france, the united kingdom and germany) under the jcpoa is one of the factors influencing saudi arabia’s foreign policy. accordingly, this study addresses the issue of how the post jcpoa climate has affected saudi arabia’s foreign policy. in order to answer this question, using the theory of neoclassical realism, it is hypothesized that the postconflict atmosphere has invaded saudi foreign policy. neoclassical realism is a combination of classical realism and structural realism. that is, on the one hand, like structural realists, it pays attention to systemlevel factors, and on the other hand, it also pays attention to the mental perceptions and internal structure of states, just like classical realists. neoclassical realists open the black box of government and explain the foreign policy behavior of a particular country by including domesticlevel variables in explaining international policies. in fact, neoclassical realism, while believing that the understanding of most current affairs of international relations is the responsibility of foreign policy theory, by simultaneously involving internal variables, especially the role of interest groups and external variables including the country’s position in the international system, is a particularly organized view of generalist thinking. in the context of neoclassical realism, internal factors, especially the perceptions and views of saudi government leaders and elites, have played a key role in shaping the country’s foreign policy in the postconflict period. internal factors, such as political leaders’ perceptions of threats, and material and internal correlations, act as a mediating variable in shaping the country’s foreign policy. from the point of view of the saudi elite, jcpoa has increased its influence and strengthened the position of the regions of the islamic republic of iran. because the removal of sanctions on iran provided ample economic opportunities for the tehran government. in this regard, saudi arabia is concerned that financial resources may contribute to iran’s aggressive stance and increase its influence in the region. the risk of increasing iran’s influence in countries such as syria, yemen, iraq and lebanon naturally raises concerns in saudi arabia. concerns that iran, as a powerful player, will be present in the security system of the persian gulf and that there will be ample opportunities in the region for it. the nuclear deal reached, ending the threat to iran’s nuclear program, will have a positive impact on security in the middle east, and iran will no longer be seen as a threat to security in the middle east. in addition, the removal of economic sanctions against iran gives the country international legitimacy. with the conclusion of the un security council, saudi arabia became increasingly concerned about a shift in the balance of power in favor of iran. according to saudi arabia, billions of dollars will go to iran once sanctions are removed. the normalization of trade relations between iran and european countries will also change the situation in the region in iran’s favor. thus, saudi foreign policy makers, perceiving the jcpoa as a threat to their interests, have extracted and mobilized their resources and capabilities to counter the perceived threat.