معادلۀ منزلت‌طلبی روسی در بحران‌های ژئوپلیتیکی جهان اسلام، مطالعۀ موردی سوریه و یمن

منزلت‌طلبی به‌مثابۀ یک چارچوب تحلیلی در سیاست خارجی نشان می‌دهد که چگونه روسیه در بحران‌های ژئوپلیتیکی، نقش‌های متفاوتی ایفا می‌کند. منزلت‌طلبی روسی، متاثر از بینش ژئوپلیتیک و هویت تاریخی روسیه، سبب تبدیل‌شدن این کشور به یک کنشگر تاثیرگذار در بحران‌های ژئوپلیتیکی جهان اسلام بوده است. مسئلۀ اصلی این پژوهش ارتباط میان منزلت‌طلبی در سیاست خارجی روسیه و عملکرد متفاوت این کشور در بحران‌های ژئوپلیتیکی خاورمیانه است. این پرسش مطرح می‌شود که چه معادله‌ای میان منزلت‌طلبی روسی و عملکرد متفاوت مسکو در دو بحران ژئوپلیتیکی سوریه و یمن وجود داشته است؟ در پاسخ این فرضیه می‌آید که بحران‌های ژئوپلیتیکی خاورمیانه به اندازه‌ای که بر دو مولفۀ هویت تاریخی و گسترۀ ژئوپلیتیک و ژئواکونومیک روسیه تاثیر می‌گذارند، رفتار منزلت‌طلبانۀ روسیه را تحت تاثیر قرار می‌دهد. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد بحران یمن برخلاف سوریه، ظرفیت‌های ژئوپلیتیکی لازم برای ایفای نقش یک قدرت جهانی از سوی روسیه را نداشته است. در مقابل، بحران سوریه به‌دلیل تداخل متغیرهای ژئوپلیتیکی منطقه‌ای و جهانی و همچنین ارتباط تاریخی آن با هویت روسی و امپراتوری شوروی، فرصت مناسبی برای پیشبرد راهبرد منزلت‌طلبی روسیه بود. معادلۀ منزلت‌طلبی روسی و بحران‌های ژئوپلیتیک در خاورمیانه سبب شده است تا مسکو تمایلی برای ورود به الگوهای دوستی و دشمنی در منطقۀ خاورمیانه نداشته باشد. به بیان دیگر در معادلۀ روسی، تقویت یا تضعیف محور مقاومت یا سازش اصالت ندارد.

The Equation of Russian Status-seeking in the Geopolitical Crises of the Islamic world; Study of Syria and Yemen

The status-seeking of actors in the international arena is not necessarily based on a specific driver. What variables actors in foreign policy are most influenced by will play a decisive role in orienting it towards prestige is a disputed issue in international politics. Some other analysts point out that the statusseeking of world powers in the international system should be divided into large and small countries. In fact, according to researchers, the statusseeking of large powers is quite different from that of small powers. Russia as a big power in the Middle East could be regarded as statusseeking power in today’s international system. Although the role of personal concerns can be traced to the direction of the country’s foreign policy, other factors still dominate the country’s foreign policy. Russia’s foreign policy drives seem to be significantly similar to its domestic policy drives. Consolidating Russia’s economy to maintain domestic economic growth, gain and maintain international prestige and prestige to define and pursue future interests, and maintain its security are among the most important drivers of its foreign policy. Russia’s foreign policy is a relatively secure government foreign policy with serious security concerns, and it is also influenced by government foreign policy, which often uses the military option to achieve its goals, rather than relying on soft options. Russian foreign policy scholars place particular emphasis on the extension of Russia’s domestic foreign policy. In other words, the role of domestic variables in the foreign policy of the Russian Federation is so significant and influential that without considering and examining these internal elements, a proper understanding of the foreign policy of this country cannot be done. According to some experts, the foreign policy of the Russian Federation does not reflect the ordinary interests of a state, but its most important feature is the influence of currents, groups, and competition between networks of power within the country. In addition, the role of cultural ideas in seeking prestige in Russian foreign policy cannot be ignored. The component of national culture has a significant role in shaping Russia’s foreign policy so that its traces can be seen in all foreign policy actions of this country. By studying the strategic culture of this country, one can better see the relationship between the goals, motives, and international actions of this great actor and evaluate its behavioral patterns in managing international crises such as Ukraine and Syria. Some Domestic Foreign Policy Observers What was most evident in Putin’s foreign policy during this period was the dominance of an identityoriented approach in Russian foreign policy. From Putin’s point of view, power and influence are strongly dependent on the question of national identity and the extent to which the citizens of a country consider themselves a nation and relate to their history, values, and traditions. Therefore, during this period, he made great efforts to restore Soviet power in the international arena; In other words, the focal point of Putin’s foreign policy behavior during this period was based on the strengthening of national identity and nationalist ideas.In this sense, for the Russians, the concept of great power is psychological and emotional. The Russians believe that Russia has the right to be considered a great power, given its vast geography, vast resources, and history. Russia has always been a leader in history. The leader of international communism, the conductor of European concerts in the nineteenth century, and one of the two world superpowers in the twentieth century has always made Russia an identity of great power in the eyes of its people and politicians. It must be acknowledged, however, that Russia’s ambition has relied heavily on Putin’s particular foreign policy personality and approach.