عضویت دائم جمهوری اسلامی ایران در سازمان همکاری شانگهای و پیامدهای ژئوپلیتیکی، نظامی، سیاسی و اقتصادی آن بر موازنۀ قوا با ایالات متحدۀ آمریکا

جمهوری اسلامی ایران برای ایجاد توازن قوا با ایالات متحدۀ آمریکا، که از تمامی ابزارهای سیاسی و اقتصادی و نظامی برای به انقیاد درآوردنِ ایران استفاده نموده است، به ائتلاف با سازمان همکاری شانگهای روی آورده است. تلاش دارد تا با ترکیب ظرفیت‌های داخلی خود با توانمندی‌های موجود در این سازمان، علاوه بر حفظ جایگاه محوریِ خود در جبهۀ مقاومت و پافشاری بر اصول بنیادین انقلاب اسلامی، انزوای ناشی از تحریم‌های ظالمانۀ آمریکا و جهان غرب را در هم شکسته و به مراودات گستردۀ تجاری و سیاسی و فرهنگی با کشورهای جهان بپردازد. در ضمن، در بازی جنگ با آمریکا و جهان غرب نیز دست برتر را داشته باشد. این پژوهش به این پرسش پاسخ می‌دهد که پیوستن ایران به سازمان همکاری شانگهای از ابعاد ژئوپلتیکی، سیاسی، اقتصادی و نظامی چگونه می‌تواند در برقراری موازنۀ قوا با ایالات متحده تاثیرگذار باشد. پژوهش حاضر از نوع کاربردی‌توسعه‌ای و به‌روش کتابخانه‌ای و تحلیل اسنادی، به مرحلۀ اجرا درآمده است.

Permanent membership of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and its geopolitical, military, political and economic consequences on the balance of power with the United States of America

In the international system, which is anarchic in nature due to Kenneth Waltz’s theory and its actors tend to impose will on other actors according to their Hobbesian nature, balance of power has always been a practical way to create public security in the world. In the meantime, weaker countries are motivated to avoid regional hegemony by forming regional and international coalitions to withstand the threats of powerful global actors by forming a higher power that is the product of the convergence of smaller powers.From the beginning of the victory of the Revolution, the Islamic Republic of Iran confronted the bipolar system of that time with the strategic slogan of &neither East nor West&. However, events such as the capture of the US embassy in Tehran, the Iraqi war against Iran, etc., deepened Iran’s conflict with the United States. The Islamic Republic has sought to join one of the strongest regional coalitions to counter the US hegemony.The Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which includes two vetowielding members of the UN Security Council, China and Russia, as well as India’s economic power, is a viable option for the Islamic Republic of Iran. At the same time, the huge energy reserves (oil and gas) of its members and the geopolitical position of its members, as well as their nuclear and military capabilities, have given the organization the potential to counter the US hegemony.By becoming a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in 2021, the Islamic Republic will be able to pursue its &Look East& policy in order to overcome Western economic sanctions, and by converging with its powerful members, China and Russia to have the upper hand in negotiations with European governments on Iran’s nuclear case known as Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action(BARJAM).The military confrontation of the Islamic Republic of Iran with the United States, which took place after the assassination of the commander of the Quds Force of Iran, General Soleimani, carried out by the direct order of the President of the United States and resulted in the Islamic Republic’s serious response in a missile assault against the Amerrican military base in Iraq, with Iran’s full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, now reached a new stage. US leaders now see Iran’s accession to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as a serious threat to their interests in the region and are seeking an alternative plan to thwart the Islamic Republic’s alliance with the East.Iran’s full membership in this organization will have significant geopolitical, military, political and economic effects on the relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States. But the realization of these cases depends on the proper functioning of the diplomatic apparatus of the Islamic Republic and regional and global developments in the future.Iran must be able to solve its problems with the world system while joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Iran’s nuclear program and the problems caused by the FATF are serious obstacles to Iran’s prominent role in the international system. At the same time, membership in other international organizations will help complete this process. Of course, the Islamic Republic of Iran is trying to join the Eurasian Union in order to achieve this goal and wants to use the economic capacity of this union to neutralize another part of the economic problems caused by Western sanctions.The consequences of NATO’s eastward expansion policy, which has led to many tensions in the region, including the Crimean and Ukrainian crises, should not be repeated elsewhere, including in the Persian Gulf. China and Russia also desperately need a strong asymmetric player like Iran to secure energy in the region and counter NATO’s eastward expansion. Therefore, their serious support for Iran’s full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization indicates the strategic balance of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization with the hegemony of the Western world led by the United States of America.The water crisis, which has plagued eastern Iran for years due to Afghanistan dam projects, and the longstagnant water transfer program from Tajikistan to Iran, must be completed using Iran’s full membership capacity.The development of the tourism industry and the use of Iran’s potential capacity in this industry is another economic goal of Iran to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which should be pursued with the cooperation of other members and the rich tourism revenue gained by some countries in the region, including Turkey, will be to a large extent absorbed by Iran’s tourism potential.