مناطق مساعد برای میزبانی حرکت‌های رادیکال سلفی تکفیری در جهان اسلام: گمانه‌هایی برای دهه منتهی به سال 1410 شمسی

در آستانه آغاز سال 1400 شمسی، می‌توان بر فراز قرنی پرماجرا ایستاد و سرشت و سرنوشت سوانح گوناگون این سده‌ی لبریز از نصیحت و عبرت را از نظر گذارند: از جنگ‌های بسیار پرتلفات جهانی و تاسیس کشورهای جدید با چندپاره شدن کشورهای مستقر تا مداخله‌های موسوم به بشردوستانه و جنگ‌های نیابتی. اما از میان این سوانح خطیر، جدیدترین آنها یعنی تاسیس دولتی اسلامی در بخش بزرگی از سرزمین سوریه و عراق، حاوی درس‌های استراتژیک و ارزشمند است. متاسفانه سانحه و واقعه‌ای به این عظمت، در کشور ما به دست اصحاب ایدئولوژی و ژورنالیست‌ها و محققان میان مایه سقط شد در حالی که ایرانیان و آکادمی‌های ایرانی می‌توانستند بواسطه درگیر شدن قهری ایران در این ماجرا، به ریفرینس بین‌المللی در باب ارکان و آینده داعش و گروه‌های مشابه بدل شوند. مایه بسی خسران و یاس است که استادان ایرانی برای فهم ریشه و شیوه و آینده حرکت‌هایی از جنس داعش به منابع غربی پناه بیاورند در حالی که جنگ در همین نزدیکی ایرانیان رخ داده و هزاران ایرانی مرتبط با این جنگ بی‌نظیر ، علی‌الاصول خزانه‌ی داده و تحلیل می‌توانند بود. به هر ترتیب، امروز آتش ادعاهای داعش فروخفته است. گمان اول و ساده اندیشانه این است که داعش از بین رفته است و راه مقابله با  ظهور مجدد آن نیز تقویت نیروهای ویژه ضربتی و ضدتروریستی است. پرسش اساسی اما این است که با فرض امکان ظهور مجدد داعش یا گروهی مشابه آن، مساعدترین منطقه جهان اسلام برای بازیگری این گروه خطرناک کجاست و نشانه‌ها و علائم میزبانی داعش کدامند؟ پژوهش حاضر با علم به ادبیات گسترده‌ای که در زمینه گروه‌های سلفی تولید شده، در پی طرح نکته‌ای دیگر و تازه است. سعی نگارنده ، معطوف به آزمون این فرضیه جذاب است که اساسی‌ترین رانه در انتخاب داعش القاعده از جانب جهادی‌ها، «احساس اشغال» است و اصلی‌ترین نشانه برای تخمین مکان ظهور داعش یا شبه‌داعش هم عبارت است از مفهوم بی‌دولتی یا statelessness.

Areas conducive to hosting radical Salafi takfiri movements in the Islamic world

1.Introduction  On the eve of the beginning of the 1400s, one can stand on an adventurous century and consider the nature and fate of the various tragedies of this century full of advice and lessons: from the very costly world wars and the establishments of new countries with the fragmentation of formerly established countries to Socalled humanitarian interventions and proxy wars. But among all these serious disasters, the most recent of them, the establishment of an Islamic state in a large part of Syria and Iraq, contains strategic and valuable lessons. Unfortunately, an accident of this magnitude was aborted in our country by ideologues, journalists, and researchers, while Iranians and Iranian academies could have resorted to international references on the pillars and the future of ISIS and similar groups due to Iran’s forced involvement in this affair. It is a great loss and despair for Iranian masters to resort to Western sources to understand the roots, methods, and future of ISIS movements, while the war took place near the Iranian borders and thousands of Iranians were involved in this abnormal war, and could be treasury of data and analysis. Anyway, the fire of ISIS’s claims has been extinguished. The first and the most simplistic assumption is that ISIS has disappeared and the way to deal with its reemergence is to strengthen the special strike and counterterrorist forces. The main question, however, is that, assuming the possibility of the reemergence of ISIS or a similar group, where is the most favorable region in the Islamic world for such terrible groups to play, and what are the signs and symptoms of ISIS hosting. The present study tries to test the hypothesis that the main element in the jihadists’ choice of alQaeda/ISIS is the feeling of occupation, and the main indication for estimating the place of emergence of ISIS or quasiISIS is the concept of statelessness. 2.Methodology Various answers have been given as to where ISIS will appear, but the method of analysis and research of this article is completely different. Most scholars on jihadist and fundamentalist groups emphasize one or more of the following components to explain the location of ISIS:  Failed States  Jihadi mercenary army Extension of the Caliphate: Revival of Islamic sharia on the earth with the establishment of a Model Islamic State Contrary to the above three assumptions, which have fallen into the etymological stage of ISIS and are incapable of understanding the present and especially the estimation of the future, the present paper looks into the future by focusing on radical Salafi movements (of the ISIS type), not through conventional futures studies and the arrangement of numerous and unusable scenarios in policymaking. In this study, focusing on the main texts and main repositories of ISIS thought, we explain the present and speculate the coming years. 3.Findings It seems that wherever the influence of the government is not deep or whatever area that can be equipped, hidden and escaped, the establishment of ISIS is favorable. Based on this fact: Border areas such as Kandahar, Afghanistan, or any other area bordering Diyala province in Iraq, mountainous and inaccessible areas such as the mountainous areas of Tora Bora as well as the mountainous areas of western and even northern Iran, uninhabited areas such as remote southern villages in Kerman, and financially poor areas such as South Khorasan province have the potential to host TakfiriJihadi groups. The main sign of the announcement of the presence of ISIS and similar groups is the start of explosive operations, abductions, and suicide attacks, the occurrence of which is a sign of the start of operations of radical groups. These cases have been addressed in detail by radical fundamentalist theorists, and as noted, the most important role players are Abu Bakr alNaji, Abu Muhammad alMaqdisi, and Abu Qatada alPalestinian. Therefore, as it is emphasized in the previous sentences that the way to recognize and deal with Takfiri movements such as ISIS is to first understand the driving force and emergence of Takfiri movements, and in this regard, it is needed to focus specifically on the component of the feeling of occupation and the experience of occupation and exclusion. And secondly, to avoid surprises it is necessary to take Aqaba and the intellectual reservoirs of this kind of movement in study centers seriously, because it seems that Iranian universities and study centers are more preoccupied than familiar with the currents of thought. They are Western thinkers. 4.Conclusion Now, after getting acquainted with the mechanism of determining the areas of operations by SalafiTakfiri groups, the objective and practical question is which areas have the talent to host ISIS and similar groups? Can ISIS be stationed in any area? What are the areas and squares that are likely to be of interest to them? According to the six rules and regulations mentioned earlier, it seems that wherever the influence of the government is not deep or whatever area that can be equipped, hidden and escaped, the establishment of ISIS is favorable.