سنجش توان ایالات متحده در تغییر رفتار جمهوری اسلامی ایران

گروه اقدام ایران بخشی از وزارت امور خارجه ایالات متحده است که در سال 2018 تاسیس شد. با خروج آمریکا از برجام، این گروه مدیریت و هماهنگی اقدامات تهاجمی علیه ایران را عهده دار است. سازندگان این گروه، اهداف جامعی را در قالب 12 شرط پمپئو، وزیر امور خارجه آمریکا، بیان داشته‌اند و ابزارهای مختلف را در اختیار قرار داده‌اند. قوانین کنگره، کمک‌های بلاعوض آمریکا به دولت‌ها و سازمان‌های بین‌المللی، تراز منفی تجاری آمریکا در مبادلات با قدرت‌ها، وابستگی نظامی منطقه به آمریکا و پایگاه‌های نظامی ایالات متحده، ابزارهای اصلی گروه اقدام در پیاده سازی استراتژی‌های خود هستند. با این حال، صرف‌نظر از دعاوی، آیا این گروه قادر به پوشش دادن همه اهداف خود است و تا چه حد می تواند آنها را پوشش دهد؟ این مقاله با بهره گیری از مطالعات امکان‌سنجی در ابعاد مختلف حقوقی، منابع، فنی، عملیاتی، زمانی و اقتصادی دایره اهداف(طیفی از تعدیل رفتار منطقه‌ای تا تغییر رژیم) و روش‌های این گروه(طیفی از تحریم تا تهاجم مستقیم نظامی) را مشخص و 20 استراتژی ممکن اولویت بندی و مشخص شده که کدامیک در سیاست‌های اعمالی آمریکا و کدام یک در تقابل با چالش‌ها از بیش‌ترین امکان تحقق برخوردار است. هم‌چنین، در جمع‌بندی با در نظر گرفتن ابعاد مختلف امکان‌سنجی، طرح اولیه‌ای از راهبردهای جامع تقابلی ارائه شده که البته بحث و تدقیق آنها به پژوهش‌های دیگر نیاز دارد.

Measuring the United States’ ability to change the behavior of the Islamic Republic of Iran

Extended Abstract: In order to implement the threemonth and sixmonth sanctions against Iran which Trump called for by withdrawing from the UN Security Council on August 16, 2018, the Iran Action Group group was established by order of Mike Pompeo at the US State Department. The group’s founders set out comprehensive goals in the form of 12 conditions for Pompeo, the US Secretary of State, and provided various tools. Congressional laws, US grants to governments and international organizations, the US trade deficit in power dealings, the region’s military dependence on the US and US military bases are the group’s main tools in implementing its strategies. The US government has so far made several attempts to put pressure on Iran, and the establishment of this group is one of them. However, there is disagreement about the purpose of this group around three axes: (1) ‌ This group should pursue new goals that are different from previous goals. In this regard, so far, the goal of putting pressure on Iran has been to change its regional behavior, but this group is pursuing further goals and even regime change. (2) This group is merely a tool to emphasize pressure on Iran and has propaganda aspects. Trump seeks to present himself as the flagship of the idea and a new and successful plan by rejecting the records of the past. Therefore, he is very interested in presenting his usual works as special and successful ideas. Trump’s unpopularity among Republicans and his need for legitimacy are the main reasons for doing so. (3) The group seeks to integrate all antiIranian efforts around its axis. In this regard, it seeks to gain international consensus against Iran in implementing its unilateral policies, especially in imposing sanctions. However, regardless of the claims, is this group able to cover all its goals and to what extent can it cover them? This article uses the feasibility studies in various legal, resource, technical, operational, temporal and economic dimensions of the scope (range from adjusting regional behavior to regime change) and methods of this group (range from sanctions to direct military aggression). It is clear that 20 strategies may be prioritized, and which one is most feasible in US policy and which is the most challenging. However, whatever the purpose of establishing the Action Group, more importantly, its ability to implement its programs. In this regard, this report tries to examine the tools and goals of this group and the challenges ahead, its capability in the practical implementation of its policies towards Iran. But before that, the history of the creation and formation of such groups and a brief description of the goals of the announcement, the structure and the records of its chairman are presented. Also, in summarizing, taking into account the different dimensions of metacommunication, an initial plan of comprehensive confrontational strategies has been presented, which, of course, requires further research and discussion. Finally, this study believes that in order to further limit the project of the action group, it is necessary to focus on different dimensions of metacommunication. In this regard: (1) In the legal dimension: adherence to international rules and maintaining the IAEA by showing the dangers posed by Iran’s withdrawal from the IAEA Board and its consequences for Europe, which can be facilitated by a slight facilitation of border control. He warned Europe; (2) In terms of resources: upgrading the economic context and diplomatic capabilities of the Islamic Republic of Iran by activating a new generation of young and motivated diplomats; (3) In the operational dimension: multiplication and diversification of import and export crossings and fields by facilitating the activities of the private sector, domestic and foreign, and preventing the fall in the value of the national currency; (4) Historically: Purchasing time and avoiding securitytightening measures no later than the 2020 US presidential election and (5) Economically: And security with other actors, especially international powers to protect exports, especially oil, and finding hidden channels for international financial transactions while diverting US attention to fake channels as major strategies to counter the group’s antiIranian programs. Are offered. It is worth noting that these strategies are merely suggestions that determine the direction of future research.