Trend Analysis and Predictions of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Ethiopia

Background: coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) is affecting both lives of millions of peopleand the global economy of the world day by day. this study aimed to determine the trend of covid-19 and its predictions in ethiopia.study design: this study was conducted based on a time series design.methods: the required data were collected from the ethiopian covid-19 monitoring platformbeginning from the onset of the disease in the country until march 28, 2021. furthermore, the autoregressive integrated moving average models were used on daily-based time series. the poisson and negative binomial regression were also employed to notice the effects of months on the transmission and disease-related human deaths.results: the mean daily infection and death of covid-19 in ethiopia were 533.47±466.62 and7.45±6.72, respectively. the peaks of infection and deaths in this country were in march, 2021, andaugust, 2020. in addition, the trend of daily new deaths (p=0.000) and infection (p=0.000) wassignificantly increasing. it is expected that around 10 million (8.6%) and 138,084.64 (0.12%)ethiopians will be infected and die, respectively.conclusions: the disease transmission and deaths vary from day to day and month to month.the highest peaks of covid-19 infection and death were in march 2021 and august 2020. for thenext end of august 2021, the covid-19 daily new infection, new death, total case, and total deathare expected to be increased. if this epidemic disease is not controlled, ethiopia will face a severeshortage of hospitals, and the outbreak even becomes worse.