Modeling Time to Death of Patients with Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis at Saint Peter’s Specialized Hospital

Background: currently, the worldwide prevalence and incidence of multidrug-resistanttuberculosis (mdr-tb) is drastically increasing. the main objective of this study was modeling thetime-to-death of patients with mdr-tb at st. peter’s specialized hospital, addis ababa, ethiopia,by using various parametric shared frailty models.study design: a retrospective study design was used.methods: the study population was tb patients with mdr at st. peter’s specialized hospital fromjanuary 2016 through december 2019. exponential, weibull, and log-normal were used asbaseline hazard functions with the gamma and inverse gaussian frailty distributions. all the modelswere compared based on akaike’s information criteria.results: the overall median time to death was 11 months and 123 (33.5%) patients died. patientswho lived in rural areas had shorter survival time than those who lived in urban areas with anaccelerated factor of 0.135 (p=0.002). patients with a history of anti-tb drug consumption had ashort survival time than those without such a history with an accelerated factor of 0.02 (p=0.001).the variability (heterogeneity) of time to death of patients in the region for the selected model(weibull-inverse gaussian shared frailty model) was θ=0.144 (p=0.027).conclusion: the mdr-tb patients with weight gain, khat and alcohol consumption, clinicalcomplication of pneumothorax and pneumonia, extrapulmonary tb, and history of anti-tb drugconsumption as well as those who lived in rural areas had a shorter survival time, compared toothers. there was a significant heterogeneity effect in the st. peter’s specialized hospital. the bestmodel for predicting the time to death of mdr-tb patients was weibull-inverse gaussian sharedfrailty model.