بررسی راهبردهای مدیریتی رویارویی با تغییرپذیری های اقلیم برای کاهش تنگدستی خانوارهای کشاورز دشت همدان-بهار

رخداد تغییرپذیری‌های اقلیم، از طریق ایجاد تغییر در عرضه و قیمت محصول‌های کشاورزی، سودآوری تولید در این بخش را تحت الشعاع قرار می‌دهد. لذا جنبه‌های مختلف تنگدستی همگام با دسترسی فیزیکی و اقتصادی به مواد غذایی دستخوش نوسان خواهد شد. بر این مبنا به منظور سیاست‌گذاری موثر برای سازگاری با شرایط جدید اقلیمی، برآوردهای درستی از تغییرپذیری‌های تنگدستی در جامعه که در نتیجه‌ی تغییرپذیری‌های اقلیم ایجاد خواهد شد، مورد نیاز است. با توجه به این رویکرد، در این مطالعه پیامدهای بالقوه‌ی پیش‌بینی‌های مختلف اقلیمی بر الگوی کشت دشت همدان- ‌بهار، با در نظر گرفتن سال زراعی 1397-1396 به عنوان سال پایه، بررسی و میزان تاثیرپذیری منبع‌های آبی، تولید، درآمد و در پی آن، تنگدستی جامعه‌ی روستایی در بخش کشاورزی این دشت ارزیابی شد. نتایج نشان داد که با در نظر گرفتن رویکردی میانه در پیش‌بینی تغییرپذیری‌های اقلیم، همگام با افزایش سالانه‌ی عمق پمپاژ آب زیرزمینی به میزان 0/86 متر در دوره‌ی برنامه‌ریزی 20 ساله‌ی تحقیق، ارزش حال درآمد خالص تولیدکنندگان و در پی آن شاخص‌های نسبت سرشمار تنگدستی، شکاف تنگدستی و شدت تنگدستی در بخش کشاورزی منطقه در مقایسه با شرایط کنونی به ترتیب به میزان 13 درصد کاهش، 15، 33 و 17 درصد افزایش خواهد یافت. با این حال، اتخاذ راهبردهای مدیریتی، بهبود شکل‌های مختلف تنگدستی به ترتیب تا سطح 9، 20 و 10 درصد را در پی خواهد داشت.

investigation of management strategies to coping with climate change in order to reduce the poverty of farmer households in the hamadan-bahar plain

introduction: the various pillars of poverty are affected by climate change. because food production depends on the availability of water resources, these resources are also affected by climatic conditions. also, the optimal growth and yield of crops occurs in a certain range of climatic variables, so climate change can change this optimal range. these conditions overshadow the change in the supply and price of agricultural crops and, consequently, the change in the profitability of production in the agricultural sector, as well as the share of food in consumer surplus. therefore, different forms of poverty would change with physical and economic access to food. according to this approach, in the present study, the potential effects of climate changes on the cultivation pattern of the hamadan-bahar plain were investigated, and the change in crop yield, water resources, and subsequent changes in producer income and poverty condition in the agricultural sector of the plain was assessed quantitatively. methods: in this study, the dynamic, positive mathematical programming approach in endogenous price conditions was used. the experimental model, consisting of 18 crops and two types of irrigation technologies, was developed based on the information of 2018 as the base year and in a 20-year planning horizon. this model's objective function is maximizing the present value of net farm income. resource constraints used in the experimental model include water, land, capital, labor, and chemical fertilizers, with chemical fertilizer restrictions repeated for each nitrogen, phosphate, and potash fertilizers. finally, the gams software package and conopt3 algorithm were used for data analysis. in the meteorological dimension of the model, the climatic measurement of rainfall was studied in the form of ssp climatic scenarios. accordingly, the rate of evapotranspiration of crops and, consequently, the production and yield of crops in the region due to climate change were estimated and integrated into the pmp model. each of these relationships is responsible for providing some of the information needed in the experimental research model. finally, the dynamic endogenous price optimization framework was estimated as a unit pattern. after evaluating the changes in the income of farmer households in the face of climate change, the fgt poverty index was calculated in the different climate scenarios. in the final stage of the research, management strategies were evaluated in the agricultural sector of the hamadan-bahar plain to reduce the negative effects of climate change on the fgt poverty index. results: the results showed that the annual cumulative rainfall values of hamadan-bahar plain in the next 20 years period would have a decreasing trend in all climate scenarios, so that in the ssp1, ssp2 and ssp3 scenarios, the average rainfall would be 303, 272 and 252 mm, respectively. meanwhile, the amount of precipitation in the base year is reported as 323 mm. accordingly, with the considering a middle approach in predicting climate changes, along with increase in water pumping depth of 0/86 meters during the 20-year planning period, the present value of net producer income and after that, the indicators of poverty headcount ratio, poverty gap and poverty severity in the agricultural sector of the region would decrease by 13%, increase by 15, 33 and 17% compared to the baseline conditions, respectively. however, the adoption of management strategies would result in the improvement of various forms of poverty up to the level of 9, 20 and 10 percent, respectively. discussion: the change in the climate conditions in the coming years would have negative effects on the poverty condition in the agricultural sector of the hamadan-bahar plain. in this situation, considering that it is impossible to avoid different forms of climate scenarios, it is necessary to apply strategies to adapt to the mentioned phenomenon.