ارزیابی تاب‌آوری و مولفه‌های آن در برابر مخاطرات طبیعی مطالعه موردی : شهر ایلام

مخاطرات طبیعی به‌صورت تکرارپذیر، جوامع بشری ازجمله شهرها را در معرض آسیب‌پذیری قرار می‌دهد. لذا تاب‌آور شدن با رویکرد تقویت جوامع و تحلیل آسیب‌پذیری مطرح می‌شود. در این راستا ارزیابی تاب‌آوری و ابعاد آن در شهر ایلام مطابق با راهبردهای جهانی تاب‌آوری و بررسی میزان کارآمدی سند جهانی تاب‌آوری مطابق با واقعیات ساختار تاب‌آوری شهر ایلام ضروری می‌نماید. روش پژوهش توصیفی-تحلیلی است. جامعه آماری شامل خبرگان حوزه مدیریت بحران و ساکنین محلات شهر ایلام است. شاخص‌ها و مولفه‌ها با تلفیق مدل cdri و راهبردهای سند سندای عملیاتی شده‌اند. برای تجزیه‌وتحلیل داده‌ها از روش‌های آماری همچون آزمون تی (t) تک نمونه‌ای و دو نمونه مستقل استفاده‌ شده است. بر اساس نتایج پژوهش، وضعیت تاب‌آوری شهر ایلام بر مبنای راهبردهای جهانی تاب‌آوری با مقدار میانگین 2/42 درصد کمتر از حد مبنا (3) است که نشان می‌دهد وضعیت تاب‌آوری شهر ایلام با وضعیت مطلوب فاصله داشته و نامطلوب ارزیابی می‌شود. ابعاد تاب‌آوری اقتصادی، اجتماعی، نهادی، طبیعی و کالبدی با وضعیت مطلوب تاب‌آوری فاصله داشته و به سمت آسیب‌پذیری گرایش دارد. تفاوت معنادار بین تاب‌آوری بافت‌های فرسوده و حاشیه‌نشین با نواحی شهری دارای بافت جدید بیانگر سطوح متفاوت آسیب‌پذیری در سطح مناطق و نواحی محدوده موردمطالعه است. نتایج آزمون تی (t– test) پرسشنامه مبتنی بر نظر خبرگان حاکی از آن است که راهبردهای بین‌المللی تاب‌آوری در صورت اجرا در تقویت تاب‌آوری جوامع محلی (ایلام) موثر می‌باشد که این امر استفاده از تجارب جهانی و لزوم بازنگری در راهبردهای کاربردی در حوزه تاب‌آوری شهری را یادآور می‌شود.

Evaluation of Resilience and its Components against Natural HazardsCase Study: Ilam City

Extended AbstractIntroductionNatural hazards constantly expose human communities, including cities, to vulnerabilities. Therefore, flexibility becomes important with the approach of strengthening communities and vulnerability analysis. Resilience is a way to empower communities using the capacities of that community. The purpose of this method is to reduce the vulnerability of cities and strengthen the ability of citizens to deal with threats such as natural disasters. In this regard, explanations of resilience against threats are presented, which in fact recognizes the impact of all dimensions and social, economic, institutional, political and executive capacities of urban communities on increasing and identifying different dimensions of resilience in cities. In order to explain resilience, it seems important to apply a systemic approach to the role of all effective actors in a strategic framework. These strategies include the United Nations International Strategy, such as the Hyogo Framework (20052015) and the Sendai Framework (20302015). These two documents have been created and approved in order to adopt strategies to develop resilience of nations and communities against disasters and reduce the risk. Since the adoption of the Hyogo Legal Bill as an International Crisis Reduction Strategy, the main goal of risk and crisis risk reduction planning has been to focus on creating resilience in societies rather than reducing vulnerability. In the continuation the work of the Hugo Framework, in the Sendai Document with Vision 20152030 on improving disaster risk understanding in all its dimensions, comprehension the characteristics of risk and vulnerability, strengthening disaster risk control, disaster risk management function, readiness for better reconstruction, recognition of stakeholders and their role have been emphasized. This document emphasizes hazard risk management and focuses on the role of local communities and the responsibility of governments and public (local communities) participation. The city of Ilam has shortcomings in the field of resilience and it is necessary to know the resilience of the local community to prevent the increase of vulnerability. MethodologyThe research method is descriptiveanalytical. The statistical population includes experts of crisis management and residents of Ilam neighborhoods. The statistical population in the second questionnaire includes experts which the sample size was determined by purposive sampling method and 35 people were selected as the sample. The reliability of this questionnaire was determined by using of Cronbach’s alpha in SPSS (94%). The validity of the questionnaire was confirmed via formal content and methods and based on the opinions of a number of experts. The statistical population in the second questionnaire includes residents aged 15 and over in Ilam neighborhoods. According to the population over 15 years of age in the neighborhoods of Ilam (145226 people), based on the Cochran’s formula, the sample size was estimated at 384 people. Then, through random cluster method and relative to the population of the neighborhoods, sample households were determined. In order to check the fit of the questionnaire, which includes assessing the reliability and validity of the questionnaire for residents of neighborhoods in the city of Ilam, the method of confirmatory factor analysis was used in Smart PLS software. To analyze the quantitative data, appropriate methods to the subject and research data such as onesample ttest and   ttest of two independent samples were used in SPSS 23 software. Results and discussionThe results of the expert questionnaire, which is based on a single sample ttest, show that there is a significant difference between the baseline limit (3) and the calculated value (4.52) (sig = 0.000). The difference between the baseline and the calculated value (1.52) is positive. Therefore, according to experts, observing international strategies can be effective on strengthening the resilience of Ilam city. From the point of view of international strategies, the resilience of Ilam city against natural hazards is not desirable.The results of the single sample t test in order to measure the overall resilience in the sample community show: there is a significant difference between the baseline limit (3) and the calculated value (2.38) (sig = 0.000). Since the difference between the baseline limit and the calculated value is negative (0/6149), therefore, the city of Ilam does not have a suitable resilience against natural hazards.The resilience of Ilam in five dimensions has been evaluated. The results of the single sample t test show that there is a significant difference between baseline (3) and calculated value (sig = 0.000). According to the difference between the baseline and the calculated value is negative for all dimensions; thus, the results show that different dimensions of Ilam city do not have proper resilience against natural hazards. The statistical results of Independent Samples Test show that the average resilience of urban marginal areas and wornout texture is 2.3 and urban areas with new texture is 2.6. Findings indicate that tstatistic is equal to t = 2.148 and the significance level is Sig = 0.047. This means that there is a difference in resilience between wornout and marginal textures (neighborhoods 357714) with urban areas with new texture (neighborhoods 910). ConclusionAccording to the research results, the resilience situation of Ilam city is far from the desired situation and is evaluated as unfavorable. The dimensions of economic, social, institutional, natural and physical resilience are far from the desired state of resilience and tend towards vulnerability. Significant differences between the resilience of wornout and marginal textures with urban areas with new texture indicate different levels of vulnerability in the study area. The results of the questionnaire based on experts’ opinions indicate that international resilience strategies, if implemented, are effective on strengthening the resilience of local communities (Ilam). This reminds us of the use of global experiences and the need to review practical strategies in the field of urban resilience.