پایش و اولویت‌بندی مولفه‌های تاب‌آوری در بافت‌های اسکان غیررسمی مطالعه موردی: محله سهرابیه کرج

مفهوم تاب‌آوری، مفهوم جدیدی است که بیشتر در مواجهه با ناشناخته‌ها و عدم قطعیت‌ها به‌کاربرده می‌شود. لذا آگاهی از وضعیت تاب‌آوری و تاب آور نمودن جوامع شهری دارای اهمیت خاصی می‌باشد. محله سهرابیه سکونتگاهی غیررسمی می‌باشد که ریشه شکل‌گیری آن به سال 1343 و تحت تاثیر اصلاحات ارضی برمی‌گردد. آگاهی از وضعیت تاب‌آوری و میزان آسیب‌پذیری این‌گونه بافت‌ها، امکان مدیریت مناسب و مطلوب را در مواقع بحران امکان‌پذیر می‌کند. بر این اساس، پژوهش حاضر به دنبال سنجش و اولویت‌بندی مولفه‌های تاب‌آوری در سطح محله اسکان غیررسمی سهرابیه می‌باشد. روش تحقیق در این پژوهش توصیفی – تحلیلی مبتنی بر داده‌های اولیه می‌باشد که جمع‌آوری اطلاعات اولیه، به‌صورت اسنادی و پیمایشی و با استفاده از پرسشنامه به‌صورت نقطه‌ای و با موقعیت مشخص انجام‌گرفته است. برای تحلیل داده‌ها و سنجش میزان تاب‌آوری و اولویت‌بندی مولفه‌های آن در محله سهرابیه از نرم‌افزارهای spss، smart pls و برای تحلیل فضایی نیز از نرم‌افزار arc gis استفاده‌شده است. نتایج گویای آن است که تاب‌آوری محله سهرابیه با میانگین 2.27 در سطح پایینی قرار دارد و در برابر بحران‌های طبیعی از آسیب‌پذیری بالایی برخوردار است. در رابطه با وضعیت هر یک از ابعاد و میزان تاثیر آن‌ها بر میزان تاب‌آوری بر اساس نتایج مدل‌سازی ساختاری بعد اقتصادی بیشترین و بعد کالبدی کمترین تاثیر را بر تاب‌آوری محله سهرابیه داشته داشته‌اند. نتایج تحلیل فضایی نیز نشان‌دهنده تفاوت تاب‌آوری در ابعاد مختلف بر اساس شرایط آن‌ها در سطوح مختلف محله است. به‌طوری‌که تنها مناطق مرکزی محله از وضعیت نسبتاً بهتری برخوردار هستند؛ اما حاشیه‌های شمالی، جنوبی و غربی محله تاب‌آوری پایینی دارند و آسیب‌پذیرتر هستند. با آگاهی از وضعیت تاب‌آوری در ابعاد مختلف و همچنین شناخت به‌دست‌آمده از وضعیت فضایی تاب‌آوری در سطح محله سهرابیه، می‌توان از برنامه‌ریزی و مدیریت بهتری جهت بیشتر تاب آور شدن محله دارا بود.

Prioritization of Resilience Components in Informal Settlements Textures Case Study: Sohrabiyeh neighborhood of Karaj

Extended AbstractIntroductionResilience is introduced as a concept of dealing with disorders, surprises, and changes. Informal settlements are a dangerous place for their residents. Many poor urban inhabitants live in the worst quality areas, such as the edge of valleys, floodprone areas or slopes. Based on it, how to deal with and resilience of informal settlements against environmental hazards is one of the most important urban challenges due to the lack of proper urban infrastructure and the drop of physical, social, economic and institutional functions. So, these days, the new approach of crisis management is urban resilience. Sohrabiyeh neighborhood, as an informal settlement that is located on the suburb of Karaj, has not an appropriate condition against environmental and human crises. According to it, what is the level of resilience of neighborhood’s different dimensions against hazards and disasters and how is the impact of resilience dimensions on the vulnerability of the neighborhood texture? In this regard, the present study evaluates the resilience status of Sohrabiyeh neighborhood and prioritizes its components. MethodologyThe study’s research method is descriptiveanalytical and in terms of nature is an applied developmental. By using of simple random sampling, 384 questionnaires were prepared and completed. SPSS and Smart PLS, Arc GIS software were used in order to data analysis, evaluate resilience level, prioritization of its components and spatial analysis in Sohrabiyeh neighborhood. The resilience of four dimensions in Sohrabiyeh neighborhood was determined by utilization of singlesample Ttest. The effect of four dimensions on resilience was fined out and ranked by applying PLS path modeling and its measurement model. Also, spatial resilience analysis was performed at neighborhood level by exploiting Fuzzy membership and Fuzzy overly models in GIS space. Results and discussionThe findings of the study include three parts such as measuring quality of life dimensions from the point of citizens’ view (Tsample), structural equation modeling (PLS path modeling) and the effect of four dimensions on resilience and spatial analysis of resilience dimensions in Sohrabiyeh neighborhood. In this section, the findings of these three parts are summarized. Based on the results of Ttest and considering the significance level and the mean of 2.27 obtained in Likert spectrum, the resilience of Sohrabiyeh Karaj neighborhood is at low level. Also, in terms of the dimensions and indicators of each of them, the status of physical, social, economic and institutional resilience is meaningful and indicates low resilience in all these dimensions.The PLS path and the standardized research measurement model and according to the values of the path coefficients that represent the standardized beta in the regression or correlation coefficients of the two constructs; evaluate the effect of each of the independent variables, which are the four dimensions of resilience in this study on the dependent variable, which is resilience. Based on the internal or structural model of the research, the economic dimension of resilience with the path coefficient of 0.508 had the most impact on resilience in the Sohrabiyeh neighborhood. The social dimension with the path coefficient of 0.312 is ranked second and the institutional dimension with the path coefficient of 0.295 is ranked third; and finally the physical dimension with the path coefficient of 0.257 has less impact on the resilience of Sohrabiyeh neighborhood and is ranked last one among the four dimensions. The results of spatial analysis of Sohrabiyeh neighborhood resilience in GIS indicate that its level is not identical throughout the whole neighborhood, so that only the central areas of the neighborhood have high resilience level and the rest of the suburbs in the south and especially the north parts have a very low resiliency. ConclusionFindings from Ttest indicate low resiliency in Sohrabiyeh neighborhood; PLS measurement model ranked the components from economic, social, institutional to physical, respectively. And GIS spatial analysis determined the spatial resilience status at Sohrabiyeh district. According to the results, Sohrabiyeh neighborhood is highly vulnerable to environmental crises and a top priority in times of crisis. The neighborhood’s economic capacities and social capital can be invested to make the neighborhood more resilient to environmental crises and optimal crisis management. Also, based on the results, more vulnerable areas have been identified and can be prioritized for rescue and precrisis planning to reduce losses in times of crisis. Two main axes can be planned to better manage Sohrabiyeh informal settlements. In the first axis 22 blocks from the 41 ones are wornout and the rest of the blocks have not the standards of urban planning due to illegal building in them. Thus, the integration and renovation of buildings, the reopening and renovation of passages and the creation of infrastructure and superstructure services enhance the physical resilience of the neighborhood. The second axis targets the planning of vulnerable groups with regard to the types of social crisis in the neighborhood and the large number of people affected by these disasters, that can be increased resilience in this area by residents’ mobilization, social caregivers and support groups.