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modelling covid-19 infection dynamics in the presence of interventions and environmental transmission
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نویسنده
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naz farah ,nyabadza farai
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منبع
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mathematics interdisciplinary research - 2025 - دوره : 10 - شماره : 4 - صفحه:447 -475
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چکیده
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sars-cov-2 (covid-19), a member of the textit{betacoronavirus} family, was declared a global pandemic in 2020. this study develops a mathematical model to investigate covid-19 transmission in a heterogeneous population in south africa, incorporating environmental transmission and non-pharmaceutical interventions (npis) such as mask efficacy. we analyze qualitative properties, including the stability of disease-free and endemic equilibria relative to the basic reproduction number r0. the analysis reveals a transcritical bifurcation at r0 = 1, indicating that simply reducing r0 below one is insufficient for disease elimination. this underscores the need for complementary measures, such as quarantine. simulations highlight the roles of symptomatic and asymptomatic infections, with reduced mask compliance promoting the persistence of the endemic state. the study concludes that quarantine remains a vital intervention for controlling transmission.
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کلیدواژه
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sars-cov-2 ,mathematical model ,non-pharmaceutical interventions ,basic reproduction number ,bifurcation ,simulations
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آدرس
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university of johannesburg, department of mathematics and applied mathematics, south africa. , emirates aviation university, institute of applied research and technology, united arab emirates. university of johannesburg, department of mathematics and applied mathematics, south africa.
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پست الکترونیکی
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fnyabadza@uj.ac.za
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Authors
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