climate variability and industrial groundwater abstraction in a water-stressed petroleum basin: water demand dynamics in lokichar oil production wells, kenya

The lokichar basin in turkana, northern kenya, is a semi-arid environment marked by pronounced rainfall variability and intense competition for water resources among domestic, livestock, and oil-driven industrial demands. this study assesses long-term rainfall trends (1981–2024), aquifer characteristics, groundwater levels, and demand dynamics to evaluate resource sustainability under oilfield development. rainfall analyses using the rainfall anomaly index, standardized precipitation index, and mann-kendall tests show marked interannual variability, with significant increases in annual and october–december rainfall and evidence of non-stationarity in seasonal precipitation. pumping tests from 23 boreholes reveal heterogeneous transmissivity (4.17 × 10⁻⁶–6.00 × 10⁻³ m²/s) and specific yield (0.036–0.500), with high-yield zones concentrated in nakukulas. continuous monitoring indicates daily groundwater fluctuations linked to domestic abstraction, while simulations project extreme midday drawdowns exceeding 60 m under full-scale oil production. estimated natural recharge (21.8–43.6 mm³ yr⁻¹) falls short of 2022 industrial demand (~53.0 mm³ yr⁻¹), exposing a recharge–demand deficit. these findings highlight the vulnerability of lokichar aquifer to over-abstraction and emphasize the need for integrated management, regulated abstraction, enhanced monitoring, and climate-responsive planning to secure water resources and support sustainable petroleum development in this fragile semi-arid basin.